I do like honesty from the board/management when they have made mistakes

Chair of MOVE, Julia Raue, said: “MOVE’s results this year are clearly disappointing. We acknowledge that we were too slow to react to the recessionary environment which has been stronger for longer than expected, and reduce costs to match activity levels. 

Another NAOS special here. Hopefully it can be turned around. It looks like all the losses come from the freight division.

CEO Resignation today, surely not a great sign. Move CEO Resignation.pdf

MOV is a classic case of dishonest management reporting.

Factoring in Lease Repayments to FCF or "adjusted EBITDA" ? Don't even worry about it.

So Move Logistics has been listed on the ASX for about a year now and in that time it hasn't attracted a single Strawman investor or even a follower.

I can sort of understand why. Trucking isn't exactly the most thrilling industry. Plus it's capital intensive. Plus we're at the start of a downturn and the oil price is elevated. Plus it has a checkered history and has been losing money - a trend that has been accelerating. Since dual-listing on the ASX it's almost halved in value. Plus management have already called out FY24 revenues to be lower. It's also horribly illiquid, even by microcap standards. (How am I going at selling it?). But I'm going to make a case for poor old MOV.

I'm going to make that case by briefly mentioning its main competitor, the industry behemoth Mainfreight. I'm pretty sure someone on Strawman did a great write up on Mainfreight a while back. Sorry I don't know who it was - I tried to find it without any joy. But anyone who has heard of Mainfreight as an investment, would know what an incredible success that company has been. They just do things a bit different. After commencing ops in 1978 they immediately implemented a 100 Year Vision. It's been an exemplar of long-term thing, aligned and experienced management who focus on customer experience and their employees. In 1996 it listed at 96 cents (NZD). It touched $100 in 2021 (a 100-bagger from a freight company) and even its current price represents 17% CAGR for 27 years! There's a book called Ready Aim Fire, which I've put on my reading list, that details the Mainfreight story, including the stuff that didn't always go right.

So why is that good for Move Logistics. It's because Move has been quietly bringing across management from Mainfreight to head up its company. Now if you don't believe in turnarounds and if you firmly believe Buffett on management (i.e. when management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact), this isn't going to be for you. But if you think Move could do even a smidgeon of what Mainfreight has done, then this might be a good time to invest.

Over the past two years the company has been stocking up long-tenured Mainfreight management, culminating with appointing Craig Evans as CEO earlier this year. Craig had 35-years experience with Mainfreight, most recently as NZ Country Manager. Though early doors there's been some interesting initiatives adopted, including implementing School Leaver and Graduate programmes to attract talent and build institutional memory. They're also planning on implementing staff wide equity scheme. It's easy to be cynical about these things but it's more difficult to be cynical when you read that Craig has surrendered 1 million shares he would of been entitled to in 2026, in order to align his incentives with the company-wide scheme. That focus on employees is also evidenced by the appointment of a new GM P&C in July - again from Mainfreight (with 18-years experience).

For me I need to see a little bit more execution before I'm ready to buy, and probably a little bit of macro turnaround too. I don't think this would be the first company investors would want to get on board if the macro improves and so you might get time to take a position before the share price reacts. With low debt and now trading around NTA this is definitely making the near-term watchlist.

Never heard of this company and there is NO LIQUIDITY ( 518 shares traded last week Oct17-21)

But Expected FY23 EBITDA $54.3m on a Market Cap of around $130m. WOW!

However, they do have lot of depreciation/amortisation, debt and HEAPS of lease liabilities so take that market cap and EBITDA forecast with a grain of salt