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#Overview /investment thesis
stale
Added 3 years ago

Companies evolve in many ways but this one has me scratching my head, despite obvious confidence from the likes of Harley Grosser of Capital H. Incidentally, Grosser has been an NED since February.

A little history:

  • The company started as an IPO for a gold operation as Red October Resources. In February 2013, Red October Resources (ROS) changed its name to White Eagle Resources.
  • Then in December 2014, White Eagle Resources (WEG) changed its name and ASX code to XTD Limited (XTD)
  • And finally in November 2020, XTD Limited (XTD) changed its name and ASX code to Motio (MXO).


Lockdowns in NSW and Victoria have impacted the gym sector although the company expects this to bounce back quickly. With the sales of home gym equipment during lockdowns it makes me wonder how much this sector will have long term impacts.

The deal with IPN is less interesting that the market announcement makes it seem, at least to my eyes. My doc is in an IPN centre and while I admit I am not a regular visitor I cannot imagine how advertising (or medical information updates via Motio systems) would improve the experience. The centre currently has a single CRT TV that plays commercial TV. Maybe I will be surprised when the Motio rollout happens.

The other is the management team. While the CEO is a media guy, this is his first CEO gig. Cadwallader has been in the chair for 2.5 years albeit is a tough market period. Then there is the new CFO, who while experienced and looks to be a good addition, comes with no media experience. 

Make no mistake, this is a tiny company with a market cap of ~20M and net revenue only ~100k. The words in the 15 October release are just too loud for me “these goals are ubject to uncertainty”. 

And a final minor gripe, but one that irks me. For a media company (or any company for that matter), why link yourself to social media platforms that you don’t use. Their Twitter feed a total of 6 posts and Insta only 32. 



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#Bear Case
stale
Last edited 3 years ago

1. The market cap in 2016 was ~$22 million. The market cap in 2021 is still ~$22 million, effectively zero growth over 5 years.

2. Shares have diluted by 30% in the last 12 months. Was ~200,000,000 in June 2020, now ~270,000,000 in July 2021 when including unlisted employee options.

3. Looking at delisted.com.au, MXO used to XTD. Whilst the business hasn't changed (OOH marketing etc), name changes are not a good sign and I treat it as a form of 'phoenixing'.

Assessment.

Microcaps should be seeing explosive growth - none here for past 5 years!

Share dilution is to be expected and accepted judiciously for micro-caps - not judicious use here as unlisted options are used excessively to incentivise staff, and pay for acquisitions.

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Valuation of $0.060
stale
Added 3 years ago
NTA = $0.02 per share (all 270mil of them) Growth per share = $0.04
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