I think investors can be a little too binary when looking at two competitors. Certainly, the rise of Xero (ASX:XRO) and it's phenomenal success in opening up the online market caught MYOB flat footed. I think Xero will continue to win, but that MYOB will still be around for a good while yet.
MYOB has a significant market share, with plenty of sticky clients. Although it was late to the party, it has made material investments in its offering and sales force, and has seen its subscriptions growth start to take off (see below chart). The market itself is growing vast and could well double in the medium term as more businesses move to the cloud.
So I don't believe that there is anything terminal about this business. My issue is more to do with the current valuation.
Like a lot of tech stocks, it is sporting a pretty robust multiple, but with the company itself calling for upper-single digit type sales growth in coming years, combined with lower margins due to its increased cost base, i think the present ~11x EV/EBITDA multiple, or 4x Price/Sales is just too rich. Especially for a company that doesnt have the offshore potential like Xero.
