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Last edited 2 years ago
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Performance (45m)
-4.5% pa
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Straws
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#Newmont takeover proposal
stale
Added 2 years ago

Offer of $28 in Newmont shares. Following recent media speculation, Newcrest Mining Limited confirms that on 5 February 2023 it received a conditional and non-binding indicative proposal from Newmont Corporation (Indicative Proposal). Under the Indicative Proposal, Newcrest shareholders would be entitled to receive 0.380 Newmont shares for each Newcrest share held1.

The Indicative Proposal follows the prior receipt of an indicative, non-binding and conditional proposal from Newmont to acquire Newcrest at an exchange ratio of 0.363 Newmont shares for each Newcrest share. The Newcrest Board had considered that the earlier proposal from Newmont would not deliver sufficiently compelling value to Newcrest shareholders and on that basis, rejected the earlier proposal.

The Indicative Proposal is subject to a number of conditions, including granting of exclusivity to Newmont, due diligence, Newmont shareholder approval and various regulatory approvals, including FIRB and approval under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Act. The Indicative Proposal also contemplates the establishment of a Chess Depositary Interest listing on the ASX for new Newmont shares issued to Newcrest shareholders.

The Indicative Proposal implies a current offer price of $27.16 per Newcrest share based on the last closing price of Newmont shares and the AUD:USD FX rate as of 3 February 2023. The Indicative Proposal represents a 21% premium to Newcrest’s closing price of $22.45 per share on 3 February 2023 and a 27% premium to Newcrest’s 30-day VWAP of $22.22 per share, at an implied offer price of $28.32 per Newcrest share based on Newmont’s 30-day VWAP for the period ended on 3 February 2023.ewmont) to acquire 100% of the issued shares of Newcrest by way of a scheme of arrangement

#Industry/competitors
stale
Added 2 years ago

“Newcrest Mining digs in for M&A talks, calls in advisers” AFR article. Interesting to see the valuation.

Australia’s biggest gold miner Newcrest Mining is in the crosshairs of a major global producer, with talks underway to fold the $20 billion Australian company into a North American counterpart.


#Business Model/Strategy
stale
Added 3 years ago

A very detailed market release (too big to upload) 

Newcrest advances its global organic growth portfolio

Consistent strategic focus on maximising cashflow from long life, low cost, high margin assets
All four organic growth options have PFS’s estimated to deliver an IRR of 16% or higher
Projected 50% reduction in Group All-In Sustaining Cost per ounce over the next decade
Material growth (+37%) in copper production, sourced exclusively from Tier 1 jurisdictions
 Lihir projected to become a 1Mozpa+ gold producer for at least 10 years from FY24
 Projected multi-decade asset lives at Cadia, Lihir and Red Chris
Newcrest intends to fund all four projects through operating cash flow and existing liquidity

https://www.newcrest.com/sites/default/files/2021-10/211012_Newcrest%20advances%20its%20global%20organic%20growth%20portfolio%20–%20Market%20Release%20.pdf

 

#Financials
stale
Added 3 years ago

Goldman Sachs report

Target of $35 based on 50:50 NAV/EBITDA blend

EBITDA +4% vs GS estimated 

Dividend US40 cps well above 22.5 estimate 41% payout

FCF 15% above GS estimated 

FY22 guidance 1800-2000 Koz Au a 860-1067/oz AISC

Looking at earlier straws the main objections still hold vs other miners but definitely appear to be improved numbers.

Disc: Held in RL super