https://newswire.iguana2.com/af5f4d73c1a54a33/ozl.asx/2A1389424/OZL_OZ_Minerals_Rejects_Indicative_Proposal_from_BHP

$OZL rejects non-binding indicative takeover proposal from BHP at $25/share.

An easy response from the Board, as it is only a 13.1% premium to VWAP for the 6 months prior.

Note that broker concensus for $OZL is $20.35 (Range $14.50 - $27.12; n=19). M preliminary view on the broker consensus is that it is unduly influenced by the short term supply-demand balance plus the prospects for a global recession, and fails to account for the longer term opportunity in this commodity. $OZL represents the bext copper pure play on the ASX. Of all the critical minerals for the green transition, copper is expected to have tight supply through most of the run to 2030 and 2050. So the strategic rationale from $BHP is clear. Known resources are limited, resource grades are declining and time to develop new mines is long. The green transition locks in a lot of Cu demand over the next 20+ years.

I am slightly annoyed that BHP has made the move, as I am only part way through a review of the medium/long term copper market with a focus on looking to add $OZL to my portfolio on further Cu price weakness linked to macro-conditions. Will have to wait and see now.

Disc: Not held. (on watch list)