Peninsula Energy: Kicking Goals or Stagnating?

Peninsula’s March quarter reads like a team still in the grind phase of a restart, not a team going backwards. The key question is whether the issues are structural or just the normal ISR teething cycle. The quarterly answers that clearly.

Mine Unit 4 is the centre of the entire reset plan and it is delivering. HH14 acidified ahead of schedule, pH dropped from ~8 to 2 in three pore volumes, and head grades pushed past 40 mg/L with peaks over 300 mg/L. Those are the highest grades ever seen at Lance. HH16 is tracking the same trajectory. HH15 is ready to go. MU4 is expected to deliver ~60% of CY26 production and the early data supports that.

Flow constraints showed up in MU3 and MU4. The cause is known: gas from hydrogen peroxide decomposition. This is a chemistry issue, not a geology issue. The team has already changed dosing, sequencing, and maintenance. Early signs are positive. The company states clearly that MU4 flow issues are not the same as MU3 formation issues. That distinction matters.

The CPP had an eight‑week interruption due to agitator failures. Replacement units are in, commissioned, and covered under warranty. The plant is now fully functional. Before the outage, precipitation efficiency was 99%. Resin kept loading through the outage, so the wellfields did not stall.

Production guidance stays at 0.4–0.5 Mlbs for CY26. That only holds if the team is confident the chemistry adjustments are working. The quarterly tone shows that confidence.

Debt is dropping fast with Davidson Kempner converting. Cash is US$16.3M. No surprises there.

So are they kicking goals or stagnating?

This is a restart doing exactly what restarts do: solve problems, adjust chemistry, stabilise flow, and ramp. The grades from MU4 show the orebody is real. The plant is fixed. The guidance is intact. The issues are operational, known, and already being addressed.

The only risk remains execution which they are slowly nailing in my book.

DISC: Hold IRL & SM

Finally — a PEN announcement worth writing about

A new announcement dropped this morning! For once it wasn’t another reset, delay or downgrade. It was the first real operator milestone since the reset.

The plant is back online, the precipitation circuit is fixed, yellowcake production has restarted and guidance hasn’t moved.

For Peninsula, that combination is rare.

Anyone who has followed PEN long enough knows the history: the failed alkaline chemistry, the contract mess, the rebuild, the capital raises, the reset plan, the endless timelines. Every step forward came with a catch.

This update didn’t.

The precipitation circuit is repaired with OEM parts, commissioned, running clean. No half language. No “monitoring phase”. No “progressing toward restart”.

Just:

“The precipitation circuit has now returned to service and is operating as designed.”

That’s the line that matters.

Rectification was handled under warranty. No cash hit.

Wellfield continuity — the real signal

ISR projects fall apart when wellfields sit idle. Knowing this, PEN kept MU‑4 running the entire time. That’s the difference between a company pretending to be an operator and a company acting like one.

The result:

63.9 mg/L head grade after only 3 pore volumes

That’s higher than anything Lance produced under alkaline chemistry. Low‑pH isn’t just working. It’s outperforming.

Guidance reaffirmed — the tell

If management had any doubt about the ramp, this is where they would have cut.

They didn’t.

“CY2026 production guidance of 400,000 – 500,000 lbs remains unchanged.”

This is the first operational setback in years that didn’t trigger a downgrade.

That’s the credibility shift.

Strategic positioning improves

The US wants domestic uranium supply.

Policy settings, utilities, energy security priorities all point the same way.

PEN is one of the few US‑based ISR producers actually ramping up today.

With the CPP back online and MU‑4 delivering strong grades, the company is finally behaving like the supplier the US wants.

Disclosure: Hold IRL & SM

Four Years in PEN: We Lived the Failure, the Downgrades, the Rebuild — Now the Company Finally Looks Like an Operator

I entered Peninsula in December 2021, long before the reset, long before the low‑pH restart, long before the new board and new CEO. I’ve lived the full arc — including the parts most people never experienced. I’ve been riding the broader nuclear wave for years, and PEN was one of the names I backed early.

Phase 1 — The False Start (2021–2024)

The original plan failed. Not “underperformed” — failed.

• Alkaline chemistry didn’t work
• Flow rates were inconsistent
• The CPP wasn’t fit for purpose
• The contract book boxed the company in
• Leadership couldn’t execute

It was a structural failure, not a speed bump. But the underlying resource was real, so I held.

Phase 2 — The Hard Reset (2024–2025)

This is where the company finally admitted reality and rebuilt from the ground up — and where the downgrades hit.

The reset wasn’t clean. It came with:

• multiple production downgrades
• revised timelines
• a full re‑evaluation of wellfield design
• a complete rewrite of the ramp curve

This wasn’t a pivot — it was a controlled demolition.

But it also brought the changes the company had avoided for years:

• New CEO, CFO, and board
• Alkaline abandoned, low‑pH adopted
• CPP rebuilt and expanded
• Contract book torn down
• A$69.9M raised, US$15M debt secured

Painful, necessary, overdue.

Phase 3 — Finally Moving Forward (Late 2025–2026)

The ramp up is still slow, but for the first time since I invested, Peninsula is behaving like an operator.

• First dried yellowcake produced
• Permanent piping solution installed
• MU‑4 acidification ahead of schedule
• Flow rates beating plan
• Uranium grades hitting 352 mg/L — a project record
• CY26 guidance reaffirmed

I’ve watched this company at its lowest, so I recognise the shift — all be it slower than I’d like.

Disclosure: I hold! Also hold BOE, PDN. Share price swings widely