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Last edited 4 years ago
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#Risks
stale
Last edited 4 years ago

Was glancing over paragon care. At first glance I have to admit it currently looks like a tempting opportunity. After a terrible couple of years the market cap is a measly $62.5 million with around $230 million in sales and ~40% gross margin. 

Covid has lead to widespread disruption especially to elective surgery but efforts to catch up the waiting lists over the coming 12 months could mean a surprising rate of recovery and potentially growth in not only revenue but margin. 

It is a fairly simple thesis. The previous roll up strategy seems well and truly abandoned and the company under new managment is rationalising costs and consolidating the fragmented business. 

However, low insider ownership and the company's debt worry me enough not to put on a position.

Whist I think there is potential for significant upside I think there is also a reasonable chance of the debt holders ending up owning the majority of the company or simply there being unimpressive business performance moving forwards leading to opportunity cost. 

I'll probably keep an eye out for insider buying.