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#Bull Case
Added 2 months ago

At this stage, PNN is a solid spicy punt for two reasons. Brazil and rare earths. Below is a very simple thesis. I'm not a long writing guy unless I'm getting paid lol.

The focus in on the new Morro do Ferro project (MDF). This is a resource that has been known for a long time and sits in the centre of the caldera that hosts Brazil's clay hosted REEs (i.e. VMM. MEI, AXL).

This resource differs as its a hard rock style being a mineralised breccia/carbonatite. PNN acquired the project from a private group in March 2026 in which it become the new flagship. Their niobium project is on go slow due to prolonged landholder dealings whilst the SA lithium projects are under a development call option with a partner.

Additionally, PNN has brought in a new CEO with extensive REE project development experience.

Back to MDF. This project has a couple of attributes that make it interesting:

  • Grade: prior drilling has identified several higher grade zones of 5%+ TREO amongst a mineralised halo of 1-3% TREO
  • Size; the footprint lends itself to economic level operations
  • Mineralogy: Bastnaesite and Cerianite. Latter is a Ce oxide ore which makes the former and enriched form (from a valuable REE perspective). Flowsheets can be designed to reject the latter.
  • Location: the project sits in an old style mining lease that reduces permitting needs whilst the local state is super pro mining and in particular, of REEs

The main risk is there is a perception around elevated radionuclides (i.e. thorium) but at worse this is considered supergene enriched at shallow depths and not overly correlated to the REEs. Where it is, its in the cerianite, which can be potentially be rejected in a beneficiation step.

I took the published assays, noting they show only samples at 5%+ TREO. the rest of the holes are mineralised but <5% but mostly 1%+ which I used as a dummy value. I get 23.8mt grading 4.4% TREO in the current footprint. The resource remains open, with the southern strike still offering a bigger high grade pod. My estimate aligns well with the only resource related milestone payment, funny that.

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Progress kicks off with drilling of ~4km aiming to test extensions (strike and depth), some verification and samples for met. Big catalyst profile that will test scale and economics before the year is out. So an investor would know if this is the next Kangankunde, Ngualla or Mt Weld.

~$7m cash post T2 of the raise so they have runway to get through their immedate plans. Mcap is modest given the other assets so I think this represents a decent punt.