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#Holy Guacamole
stale
Added 2 years ago

Sooooo this came up. Tried to see what caused the massive share price (assumed it was an announcement or a dividend)

Managed to find this in a recent statement which gives some evidence.


Interested though that as a business, they seem to be losing less and less money every year for the last few years but taking in hardly any revenue. Gives me a headache so I'm staying away. Really nigh level stuff but thought it would be worth flagging as a straw if someone else came by to see what the massive drop was all about.



Not held.


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Valuation of $1.000
stale
Edited 3 years ago

Lithium Mining Stock with a large prospective mine based in Zimbabwe with a top class conservative management team.

The share price is currently in the midst of a re-rating due to very strong global lithium prices, but the upcoming Optimised Feasibility Study (OFS) as well as the recently announced seven non-binding financing / takeover offers are the key catalysts that should further drive this share price upwards.

Expected post-tax NPV for the OFS is anywhere in the $700m-$1b range, with many competitors currently trading at or above 1/2 of their NPV. So for a valuation - given the current market cap of $290m, and an estimated post-tax NPV of $800m, I come up with a valuation very close to $1.

I expect patience to be rewarded with this one.

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#ASX Announcements
stale
Last edited 3 years ago
  • Binding agreements executed for the sale of Prospect’s 87% interest in the Arcadia Lithium Project (Arcadia) to a subsidiary of new energy lithium-ion battery material producer, Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co., Limited (Huayou), for approximately US$377.8 million (A$528.4 million1) in upfront cash consideration (Transaction)
  • Attractive outcome for Prospect shareholders, with consideration equating to approximately A$1.23 per Prospect ordinary share,2 representing a premium to Prospect’s 10-day VWAP3 of approximately 78%
  • Transaction with a world class partner vindicates the strong support of the Government of Zimbabwe for Arcadia, and highlights the benefits flowing from its Special Economic Zone status, with the potential to put Zimbabwe firmly in the electric vehicle supply chain
  • Key conditions precedent to completion of the Transaction include:

-Prospect shareholder approval;

- Requisite Chinese regulatory approvals being obtained by Huayou; and

- Other conditions precedent set out under “Conditions Precedent” below.

  • Deposit of US $20 million immediately payable by Huayou, non-refundable in certain circumstances where the Transaction does not complete
  • Break fee of US $20 million payable by Prospect in certain circumstances where the Transaction does not complete
  • Subject to, and following, completion of the Transaction, Prospect expects to retain a cash balance of up to US$50 million to progress its other battery metals projects in Zimbabwe, and potentially pursue new battery metals growth opportunities globally
  • Prospect intends to distribute the remaining net proceeds to its shareholders
  • Subject to all conditions precedent being satisfied or waived, Prospect currently anticipates the Transaction completing in late Q1 / early Q2 2022

———————————————————————

Super outcome for all shareholders, although slightly bittersweet, as I saw this turning into a $2-$3 share as we crept closer to production.

It also looks like a large shareholder is dumping its holding on this news (possibly Sinovac?), which is making for excellent buying today. No reason this shouldn’t push over $1 shortly with an estimated $1 unfranked divvie / cap return due in March-ish and a $70m war chest for further exploration and development

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#ASX Announcements
stale
Added 3 years ago

Optimized Feasibility Study out this morning confirms the following:-

  • $892 p/t USD base case lithium price for the Life of Mine (Spot is currently approx $2,000 p/t).
  • Avg annual EBITDA (post-tax) $175m USD
  • NPV 10% (post-tax) $929m USD
  • 18 year Life of Mine


All of this on a current AUD market cap of $290m means today should be a pretty nice day! My current valuation of $1 will need increasing on these strong numbers.

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