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Not huge in monetary value but an initial deal with the US department of defence to deploy an energy storage system! This is very promising and redflow is rapidly approaching that golden inflection point where large orders are starting to flow in- interesting times ahead. Cheap as chips at these prices!
new 4mwh deal announced in conjunction with queensland government- worth around $3.5mill. Nice augmentation to the recent 20mwh deal in california. This feels like an inflection point and redflow is now open for business and likely to see a lot of orders over the next 12-24 months! Hopefully the current raise is the last and its bluer skies ahead! Still very difficult to vakue but has enormous potential
Pause in trading pending a further announcement.
Coincidentally, the share price has increased 70% over the last two days :-)
Also the MOU signed by RFX with Energex and Ergon, part of Energy Queensland, will offer an opportunity to explore and evaluate emerging energy storage technologies that can support this transition to renewable energy. By working together, they can identify solutions that will enable the efficient and cost-effective integration of renewable energy into the grid while meeting the increasing energy storage demands in Queensland. RFX production facility remains on target to ramp up production to 80 MWh per annum by the end of 2023 to meet growing demand. This will allow it to scale its business and capture a larger share of the energy storage market.
Market seems to have thoroughly enjoyed the announcement of this partnership- now its time to sign large deals for hundreds or thousands of batteries! That is what would lead to a sustainable rerate!!
Redflow makes stationary batteries. These are large batteries built to support building or electrical grids. The Redflow batter is a zinc bromine flow battery, which differs to to the Li-Ion or LFP batteries you find in an electric vehicle (EV). Flow batteries don't use lithium, which is increasingly in demand for EV production. According to Redflow their battery chemistry offers some useful features: they don't catch fire, can be completely discharged without damaging the battery, and offer a hibernation mode (where the battery is kep charged but unused for extended periods of time).
They have a manufacturing facility in Thailand and have recently (July 2022) launched generation 3 (ZBM3) of their battery.
In the past Redflow's ZBM flow battery has been deployed in small setups to provide grid-backup power to businesses. They haven't pursued residential market (they don't seem to be cost competitive, and their batteries appear to be bulkier than a Li-ion model) but did have success providing batteries as backup power for remote Optus cell phone towers.
Their largest deployment to-date has been a 2 MWh energy storage system for Anaergia in California in 2021 using the previous-generation battery. This appears to have gone well: they are pursuing a subsequent 6MWh deployment with the same customer for deployment "target 2023-24".
Their 1HFY23 report claims "Several key opportunities which are at advanced stages in our pipeline are multi-MWh contracts".
Redflow are focusing on US sales opportunities: legislation passed in the US last year is increasing funding for green infrastructure, including batteries. Redflow's Thailand manufacturing facility is planned to grow to 80MWh production per annum by the end of 2023.
It is encouraging several customers have come back and deployed further systems, including the Bureau of Metrology and Knox City Council in Australia, and Anaergia (proposed, as mentioned above) in the US.
This company has spent a decade in R&D to get a working zinc bromide flow battery- they now have that and a manufacturing facility in thailand. they also have real life working examples- in california and australia
looking at previous financial reports over past years looks ugly given they were spending like crazy and had no income. that is about to change. the challenge now is capturing market share. given the low market cap and potential addressable marker i think there is asymmetric risk to the upside here. its all about getting orders now lets see how it goes
risks include slow order growth and continuing cash burn meaning dilution.
incredibly hard to value- my valuation reflects a good return over 3 years
Finally Gen3 battery in production. Will be interesting to see whether cost of manufacturing savings can drive a profit.
Redflow Limited (ASX: RFX) (‘Redflow’ or ‘the Company’) is delighted to announce that its new third generation ‘Gen3’ battery has commenced production in Thailand this week and is now ready for commercial sale. Initial orders for Redflow’s Gen3 batteries have already been received with delivery targeted for August 2022.
The Gen3 battery represents a major advancement over the Company’s Gen2.5 battery. The battery’s new design incorporates several key innovations including a new stack design, updated electronics with increased functionality, and a new tank design and cooling system.
Commenting on the release of the Gen3 battery, Redflow COO Richard Aird said: “We have been working towards the release of Redflow’s 3rd generation battery for several years with significant engineering design and testing invested in its development since 2018. The Gen3 design delivers significant manufacturing cost reductions while also improving performance through innovations in stack design. We have achieved this by applying substantial operational learnings from our Gen2.5 batteries that have delivered over 2 GWh of energy and exceeded 10 million hours of field operations since 2018.”
“The Gen3 battery has been designed to increase the amount of automated manufacturing we can apply and sets the platform for fully automated production in the future,” Mr Aird said.
This is one I want to love. Brisbane based business designing and building a better widget, and it is a better widget (well battery).
Instead of almost all the mainstream competitors (think Tesla Powerwall) that use lithium-ion, Redflow instead use a flow technology. The difference is that the tech the storage capacity never declines, unlike lithium-ion which will have something like 70% of its capacity after 10 years.
Other than the tech, I am a Simon Hackett fan. South Australian ISP Internode founder, the electric vehicle and flying enthusiast is a signifcant investor, now owning more than 11% of the stock.
Hackett is also an active user of the products in his home, in his office. He charges his electric vehicles almost exclusively from solar, or from energy stored in Redflow batteries.
What is the summary, it is one I follow with interest, and one I want to see succeed. The move of manufacturing was in my opinion an excellent move. Now just to translate the tech, manufacturing and enthusiasm into sales.
Gelion Technology-spin-out from the University of Sydney,
“Gelion’s patented technology, invented by our founder Professor Thomas Maschmeyer and his team, uses a revolutionary gel that delivers affordable, scalable and safe solutions to store renewable energy.
Traditionally, costly and complex flow batteries have been adopted to implement the zinc-bromide chemistry, but that has brought with it operational and commercial challenges. Gelion’s breakthrough has reengineered the potential of zinc bromide to deliver a practical and commercial solution for stationary energy storage.”
Takes the RFX chemistry but removes the liquid flow aspect and uses a gel instead. Simpler unit and more easily recyclable. Not yet listed.
“Gelion successfully completed an oversubscribed AUD $13m Series B capital raise.
The next capital raise is anticipated to be in Q4 2021.”
I have liked the RFX chemistry for a while and did hold but I think that they have missed their opportunity to be market leader with other chemistries competing in the flow space.
Gelion simplify the difficulties found with flow cells and I think they have an opportunity to take a significant market share in off grid storage.
Federal Minister’s visit unveils Redflow and Optus’ Resiliency Initiative
Redflow Limited (ASX: RFX; Redflow or the Company) is pleased to announce that it has partnered with Optus to deploy Redflow batteries as part of the Australian Government’s Mobile Network Hardening Program. The Minister for Communications, Urban Infrastructure, Cities and the Arts, the Hon Paul Fletcher, visited Redflow’s Brisbane headquarters to launch the initiative, which is funded in part by the Government’s bushfire relief package.....
Earlier this week, Optus installed its first Redflow battery system under the Government’s program at a black spot site in Lexton, Victoria. It is planning to deploy Redflow batteries in at least 56 black spot sites as part of the program. Optus has also used Redflow batteries in the environmentally sensitive Daintree Forest in Queensland since 2019