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#Business Model/Strategy
stale
Added 6 months ago

@Bear77 have you ever looked over the fence at RHI? (I say over the fence as I think you own most of the tenements that surround where these guy's operate...lol)

On a more serious note though, I must admit I'm liking their model, locations and balance sheet which is why I opened up a smallish position in RL to keep a closer eye on them.


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Valuation of $4.80
stale
Added 2 years ago

Sept 2024 - Updating to 4.80 to account for slow ramp up of Onslow and IO price drop to 90 USD (138 AUD)

June 2024 - 7.10 See previous straw on financials after 1.50 special dividend was paid. Base case uses IO price of 141 AUD.

Apr 2024 - 7.30. See previous straw on financials. Using 35mtpa. NPV8.

Nov 2023 - 4.95 (nb this is using 16mtpa which is wrong)

See previous straw on financials

NPV11 works out to be 345m for the Minres milestone and royalty payments.

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#Bull Case
stale
Last edited 2 years ago

52 week high at $6.80 today (19 Apr). FOMO has finally arrived

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MinRes making Onslow their flagship project with the progress video right at the beginning of the FY24 presentation.

Has been good for Red Hill, not so good for Develop. Unfortunately I hold less RHI than DVP so this has not been a perfect "hedge". Because I think Red Hill is "boring" even though "boring" can sometimes be "good".

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And Joshua Pitt track record has been average till now (marketindex). I guess the saying "Every dog will have its day" applies here?

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A few bits of info to take away for more valuation into the research as again I think I've undervalued this somewhat (see previous straw on Financials)

Stage 1 is 35 mtpa. How long to wait till Stage 2? How big will be Stage 2? 50mtpa? 75mtpa?

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Map of the JV. Have to verify if there is more than just Red Hill in this royalty. Obviously more upside if there is.

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[held DVP and RHI]

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#Bear Case
stale
Added 2 years ago

Giving the Iron ore majors (and the Iron ore price) a run for their money

Popped 10% today from 5.25 to 5.75 possibly on the back of recent updates on the Onslow project from Minires.

Markets obviously factoring high prob of $1.20 dividend (see previous straw).

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I also added CZR here since the company is in discussions on joint development of infrastructure for the Pannawonica (RHI) and Robe Mesa Project (CZR) which will obviously benefit both parties.

CZR is top performer so far as they are currently in discussions to sell their interest in Robe Mesa Project for $102 million to Miracle Iron resources (subsidiary of Shenzhen Naao Jiangian Invest Co (SNIC))

Such a development would probably benefit RHI as well if this goes as planned although the market is still divided on the probability of this being successful and hence coming off recent highs

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Very illiquid though so buyer beware (and why not added in Strawman as it is too difficult to trade)

[held RHI]

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#Risks
stale
Last edited 3 years ago

Despite the negative news on iron ore and lack of success on exploration, RHI is still going up. Hit 52 week high

Just checked the queue and nothing on sale

Still doing my sums on those payments but I think some smart guys has already beaten me to it :(

Maybe just pull the trigger and push it to $5?

Edit:Very keen buyers at 5+

Also announced gold drill results.

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