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#Bear Case
stale
Last edited 5 years ago

17-Nov-2018:  The largest shareholders of Tribune Resources (ASX: TBR) are in trouble with the Australian Government Takeovers Panel (TOV) who have made orders that include the forced divestment of 12 million shares in TBR currently held by Rand Mining (RND).  That order has been stayed pending a decision on a review. 

RND are currently listed as the largest shareholder in TBR with 13.16m shares representing 26.3% of TBR.  TBR also own 26.6m RND shares, so at least 44% of RND. 

There are also questions over who ultimately controls the other substantial shareholders (SSs) of both companies, especially TBR, such as Gleneagle Securities & Trans Global Capital (both also listed as SSs of RND) plus Sierra Gold.  There are allegations that most of these entities are controlled by Antonthy (Anton) Billis, his wife (Phanatchakorn Wichaikul), and their associates.  Other holding companies used include Nimby WA, Lake Grace Exploration, & Northwest Capital.  

RND & TBR have responded by selling up most of 1 of their 2 main assets, being the substantial gold bullion they had stored at The Perth Mint, pre-paying the CGT on the sales (they held the gold on their books at cost, being around half of what they sold it for) then paying that money out to their shareholders very quickly as huge fully franked special dividends. The TBR special dividend was $3.50, and their share price was $7 the day before they announced that dividend.  The RND spec div was $1.25, and their SP was $2.40 the day before the announcement.  RND closed at $2.15 yesterday - and TBR closed at $4.63.

RND & TBR's other main asset - and only remaining main asset (other than their cross-shareholdings in each other) now that they have sold the majority of their gold and distributed that cash to their shareholders - is their 49% interest in the EKJV (the East Kundana Joint Venture).  Northern Star (NST) own the other 51% (and are the operators) and have recently offered A$150m to RND & TBR for their 49%.

I have discussed all of this in more depth in Tribune (TBR) straws - TBR being the larger company.

RND has a market cap today of $129m, and NST is offering them $37.5m for their only major remaining asset - being their 12.25% share in the EKJV.  While that price might be increased, or the offer might be rejected by RND, it also might be accepted considering the TOV orders and how they will/might affect TBR & RND's major shareholders.

Ordinary retail shareholders of RND could get screwed from here.