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Valuation of $0.030
stale
Added 2 years ago

Valuation

RXH has announced the acquisition of a strategic partner, and according to the Founder's statement, the company is poised for a strong 2HFY due to its positive cash flow being utilized for growth initiatives to achieve compounding growth. RXH has recorded over 3M in revenue and 1.8M in profit for the first half-year, with a market cap of only 8M. Over the last five years, there has been no management dilution, and the company has sustained positive growth and cash flow for five consecutive quarters. RXH is on track to achieve 1c per share of earnings this financial year, with a current share price of 1.5c, and the cash position is improving.

Based on these positive indicators, my rough valuation without factoring in growth would be a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 5, yielding a valuation of at least 3c if the current momentum continues this quarter.

Thoughts please?

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#Bull Case
stale
Added 2 years ago

On the back of the latest half year earnings which includes another positive net income result. There must be a good case for a rerating to a higher value.

Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 90% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 78% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth.

First half 2023 results:

  • EPS: AU$0.004 (up from AU$0 in 1H 2022).
  • Revenue: AU$3.58m (up 418% from 1H 2022).
  • Net income: AU$1.87m (up AU$1.81m from 1H 2022).
  • Profit margin: 52% (up from 8.4% in 1H 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue.


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#Bear Case
stale
Last edited 4 years ago

General Notes:

•Illiquid – founder owns 75%, top 13 own 89%

•Market Cap $2.1M

•Founder and board member were willing to loan $50,000 each to the company unsecured and interest free with founders’ loan now at $500,000 - $1M

•CEO/founder modestly paid

•Nearly $1M annual loss

•Negative shareholders’ equity

•Multiple CRs since listing

•$0.75M op cashflow negative down from $2.2M negative pcp

•Multiple ASX query letters regarding viability of remaining listed & negative operating cash flows

•As of March 2020 – 0.66 quarters of funding available

•Negatively affected by Covid-19/lockdowns

•No moat/competitive advantage

On the surface revenue growth trending positively and the financials promising with a modest $30k profit before tax. However, on reading note 5 it can be seen the majority of their revenue is derived from “R&D tax incentive rebate”; totalling $805,000 half year ending Dec 2019 and $1.09M annually as of June 2019.

When looking at user growth numbers keep in mind this may include freemium users.

It's an interesting product essentially offering digitised buy 10 get one free cards for cafes etc. It's possible it was a bit ahead of it's time talking about society moving towards cashless payments back in 2014 and the use of mobile phones to pay for purchases.

If I've missed anything please let me know.

 

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