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#Bear Case
stale
Added 5 years ago

I am unable to close my position, due to some glitches, so I thought I would make a post instead.  

I decided to close my position in Schrole group, for the follwoing reasons:   

1) the core product, Advantage, had revnue growth slow to 12% yoy, and they reported renewals exceeded 80%.   This means churn is a little less than 20% - not good.  

2) Schrole group do not appear to be investing in the software, with no expenditure on R & D.  Anecdotally, from users are not entirely happy with the user interface, and it appears the product needs more improvement, which may reduce churn.  

3) ETAS is the growth driver.  ETAS is the low tech training / consulting sid eof the business.   This is not in my whelhouse, and is not why I origianlly invested in the business.  

I don' tthink Schrole Group have the right focus.  I hppe I am wrong, but I don't think Schrole Group will do much more than be a plodder in my portfolio, and there is a nasty risk in the business if churn worsens, or the ETAS business has a bad year.

I am out - although, my profile says I am in :)

 

#Bear Case
stale
Added 5 years ago

Disc: I own SCL, but this is something to be aware of. 

The fastest growing business in SCL is their ETAS.  This is their training services, which is not tech, or software.  It is training.  

It represents 30% of revenue, and is growing at around 80%, driven by what appears to be high demand from the cyclical mining sector.   Taking this side of the business out of the equation, overall growth is running at a more "pedestrian" rate below 30%.  

IF the ETAS business growth tanks due to a mining dowturn, or ohter impact on the business, SCL overall growth will be seriously affected.    

This is not a 100% SAAS story - yet.