Good result - key takeaways:
1) Revenue up 178% Q on Q.
2) Active traders up 18645 over Q, up 166% YoY.
3) Cash held increased 26% YoY.
4) Cashflow positve @ $558k.
The key metric I was interested in this quarter was gross margins. The cashflow report, doesn't tell the full story as the US trading is paid 1 month in arrears. It would be handy if Selfwealth report quarterly revenue as well as receipts to help reconcile that revenue from US trading.
Assuming trade and FX costs are booked at execution, backing in the US trading revenue for March will allow for a reasonable estiamte of gross margins going forward. Now, 36266 US trades were made over the quarter. If one were to say 33% of these trades were made in March, this equates to around $135k in trade revenue and say, $375k in FX (0.6% of FX transactions). So that is $560k in revenue not booked against costs of goods for the quarter.
Assuming the above assumptinos are correct, I come up with a gross margin of 47%. This compares to a gross margin of 38% for the FY of 2020.
One happy camper if my assumptions are correct.
DISC - I HOLD.
29th March 2021
SelfWealth Appoints New CEO and Restructures Board to Drive Next Phase of Growth
SelfWealth Ltd (ASX:SWF) (“SelfWealth” or “the Company”) is delighted to announce the appointment of Cath Whitaker as CEO of SelfWealth. Cath is a dynamic leader who has an impeccable record of driving digital transformation within organisations.
Cath has over 20 years’ experience in global financial services, most recently as the Global Leader of Digital Transformation at Marsh Inc, the world’s leading insurance broker and risk advisor. Cath was responsible for the development and implementation of Marsh’s global digital and data strategy for the Risk Management and Corporate divisions. Marsh is a wholly owned subsidiary of Marsh McLennan (NYSE: MMC), a global professional services firm with annual revenue over $17 billion.
Cath is a strong digital leader with a proven track record of delivery, who has the skills and experience to lead SelfWealth through its next phase of growth. SelfWealth has had a very successful 24 months, generating exceptional growth across all key performance metrics. SelfWealth is committed to ongoing product innovation and embedding digital best practise throughout the organisation and the Board recognises the need for new leadership with global expertise in financial services technology in order to continue expanding as Australia’s leading low-cost, online trading platform.
I am aniticpating a strong result for Q3. The key features of the result I am expecting, & I think holders need to look out for:
1) Strong growth in active traders, driven by expanded offering. Competitors such a NABtrade are losing market share to Selfwealth - refer to web traffic ranking data in the figure attached.
2) Gross margins . The first quarter of the new deal with openmarkets, with higher margins going forward. Margins will increase as trade volumes increase as well. This represents an inflection point for the business IMO.
3) Costs will be flat or falling, Q on Q, due to ETF admin costs in Q2, and reduction in CoGS due to new deal with openmarkets.
I think operating cashflow will be well over $1 Million, but it is hard to forecast & really depends on the new deal with Openmarkets. The uncertainty will be washed away with these results, & I am looking forward to discovering gross margins going forward..
DISC - I HOLD.
SelfWealth has just launched its new ISO app, with the android app set to be ready in the coming weeks. The app is meant to be more simplistic and easier to use. News and annoncements will be able to be seen, as well as companies financials and more account control. You can also trade US stocks on the app which you previously could not. This is a step in the right direction for the company and will hopefully aid in its continued growth
One of my tests of management is to send them an email to see how long they take to respond (if they respond at all) and how they respond.
You don't necessarily want a CEO/MD to respond right away (don't they have better things to do than respond to emails - why aren't you running to business).
No response at all, especially if I'm a shareholder is not a good sign.
Brushing off my questions in the email also is a red flag.
I emailed the MD of SWF, Rob Edgley last week as I had significant issues in setting up my US trading account (applied in December but still had not been setup up by early March even after numerous emails and chats on their website).
Within a few days my account was setup and my issues resolved.
I eventually did get a response from Rob by the end of the week apologizing for the issues, advising that he had contacted the Head of Client Relations right away to get on to the issue and he explained that he was implementing short and medium term solutions to improve client services which had not been at their usual high standards over the last few months.
Rob, gets a tick from me in this measure of management testing.
Mr Vu has been buying shares on market. Just $25 k, but this represents 20% of his total holding.
DIS - I hold
I see Game Stop GME is back in vogue up 100%+ today (150% in the after market) Selfwealth's many new found millennial traders, will be lighting up the trades like a christmas tree. The recent update numbers around sign ups and trades was fantastic and the fatter margins will show up in the next 4c update early April.
It is looking like an absolute bargain here after pulling back significantly.
See Rapstar's comments on the incredible trading update from SelfWealth today. Some notes from the HY report:
Point being, not only is SelfWealth growing at a blistering and accelerating rate but they are scaling well with improving margins and profitability imminent most likely this quarter
Interesting slide from slide deck. Google trends indicate gaisn in market awareness of Selfwealth vs "big 4".
1) Average daily registrations in February runrate at 855 per day, up from 240 per day in December. An increase of 356% in two months!
2) Active traders at 78619, an increase of 11270 in 6.5 weeks!
3) Client cash as at Feb. 17 is $472M up from $435M at end of December. An 8.5% increase in 6 weeks.
4) Record trade volumes in January of 151811 trades. 131412 trades to date in February. On track for +500k trades for quarter.
SWF high season trending better than I expected.
DISC - I HOLD
They say buy more of what you know. Well I have been buying more SWF. I am seeing tailwinds everywhere atm:
-Sign up spike from GME saga
-Stake clients jumping ship after platform fails
-Fatter margins from Jan 1st
-Fatter margins on US trades from forex boost
-The Chart looks fantastic
-The much anticipated new app is due to launch any day now.
Seems a no brainer here, The buisness should be killing it right now.
Selfwealth is benefiting hugely from the GameStop saga.
Investors are leaving Robinhood and Stack enmass due to the restrictions and downtime related to recent volatility. Selfwealth introduced US trading about 6 weeks ago and GME is the most widely held US stock by Selfwealth clients. Apologies Andrew but there is a lot of great quality fundamental analysis over on the SelfWealth threads on hotcopper demonstrating the beneficial impacts SelfWealth are currently experiencing. Customer reviews of Robinhood and Stack have nosedived and it seems traders are far more interested in switching to SelfWealth than NABtrade or Commsec. Big fan of Matt Joass and this to me seems like a fundamental inflection point.
Selfwealth already typically have almost all their annual growth in Q3 and Q4 and Q3 was looking very positive ahead of this GameStop short squeeze. Now it seems Q3 is going to be exceptional for trade volumes, growth in currency conversion and US trading and particularly customer growth.
viharerda provided the Q2 update as summarised by management, but I wanted to add a bit of flavor. Reading through the update a number of other facts stood out to me so here is the non-summary summary:
Overall I was a bit disappointed in the low revenue growth QoQ (1.2%) but I wasn't overly surprised. Last year Q2 was up 4.2% on Q1 then they acheived 42 and 37% growth in the following quarters. It's also worth considering there was a 5% drop in overall ASX trades QoQ (and 7% drop on pcp), Q2 has seasonally the lowest trades. Active traders were up 17%.
International Trading: although it was introduced December 14, the 2 income streams from international trading (foreign exchange (FX) margin and a brokerage fee) are both "received monthly in arrears" so Q2 included no revenue from international trading. Q3 will include the relevant Dec, Jan & Feb income. They are also adding additional order types, stock research reports and other US trading functionality during the March quarter, which is expected to be profitable for US trading. The MD commented "The launch of US trading is now complete with an encouraging take up by existing clients and quickly growing trade volumes."
Profitability: they had a $29k operating loss after a $344k profit last quarter. A new, cheaper contract for settlement, execution and clearing services came into effect on January 4th 2021 with OpenMarkets. So that is 2 new revenue streams and lower operating expenses expected next quarter. Q3 and 4 are also historically much stronger quarters, especially the 4th as they offer sales on annual subscriptions including free trades. So I'm expecting 2 relatively very profitable quarters to finish the year.
New app: iOS app will be released early February 2021 with the Android app to follow shortly after. This was originally scheduled for December so is behind schedule, looking forward to seeing how significant of an improvement this is on the current UI and the impact it has on customer acquisition. Pleasingly they are expensing the R&D costs associated with developing the new app.
Marketing: they increased spend during the quarter and plan to continue this increased spend (from $162k Q1 to $261k Q2, 60% increase). This is only 6% of revenue Vs 64% for product manufacturing and operating costs. I think increasing marketing from here is a good move and hope to see more. They have waited until they have international trading and the improved UI of the new apps could result in higher ROI from marketing as well. I've been seeing a lot of adds for their competitors lately, and think the entry of a couple cheaper competitors is likely why the share price has been struggling. Selfwealth have a differentiated offering though with order functionality similar to Commsec and international trading, and I believe clients moving from more expensive platforms is their biggest market opportunity. Considering their blistering growth in active traders so far has been acheived with very minimal sales and marketing spend there could be more higher growth available to them in the future.
SWF Quarterly Activities Reports:
• Record quarterly operating revenue of $4.46m, up 298% YOY.
• US trading launched on schedule on December 14th, adding a rapidly growing new revenue stream.
• Number of active traders 67,394 at end December. Up 17% for the quarter and 208% YOY.
• Quarterly trade volume up 377% YOY.
• Value of client cash held and value of securities held on HIN continue to grow strongly.
• Operating costs on clearing down from January 2021, producing higher gross profit margins.
• Quarterly cash flow from operating activities, -$29k in a heavy investment quarter.
Disc: I hold
Selfwealth launched US trading platform this week. Key takeaways:
Alexa webpage rankings correlate with reported increase in new account registrations. With ranking up 6k places since October. Two issues to note:
SelfWealth seems to be an attractive stock for many investors, including myself. With the company having two consecutive positive cashflow quarters and an increase in active traders during these periods, the organisation seems poised to keep gaining market share. With their new app and access to the US market coming in December this should only add value to the company. I believe this is where the share price will rapidly grow, and more uses will jump on board. One to watch in the coming months.
Valuation updated to reflect Q1 FY21 result. Notes:
Despite a modest QoQ revenue growth of 4.5% I think it is important to look at this figure Vs their underlying driver of revenue which is currently ASX trade frequency. As per page 3 of their update, ASX daily trades were down from ~1.8m to ~1.5m so it was always going to be a difficult quarter to grow revenues, however SelfWealth daily trades increased, helped by a 24% increase in active traders
Note that lowest Q3 & Q4 QoQ growth has been 41.8% and 37% respectively, not sure what has caused significantly higher growth historically in these quarters (apart from covid in most recent year, with 74% and 101% growth respectively) however I expect international trading and new apps to provide a similar boost.
Still expecting YoY revenue growth ~200%, growing gross margin and profitability, growing share of big market opportunity.
Some may think their user and trade volume growth has been elevated by a one off covid related boost, I disagree:
-they have grown revenue QoQ 13 quarters in a row.
-they are building momentum with early adopters,
-they have US trading and new iOS and android apps pending both within 3 months
-In Q1FY21 they grew trade volume and quantity despite these declining overall for the ASX i.e. they grew their market share ~30%
They are clearly listening to their users, who are growingly becoming investors in SelfWealth (can't get much stickier than that). As they gain market cap more investors will notice them, research them and make the decision to switch to a cheaper broker, I think their share market success could make great free product marketing.
Biggest risk is competition, I think the new app and US trading will assist in getting majority of new traders as well as being ASX listed, however they have no moat and are already being undercut with $8 trading offered by ThinkMarkets, so only time will tell. Will need to keep an eye on quarterly new traders, liking the 11,370 new traders added in Q1
Solid results for Q1, with key takeaways:
1) Active traders up around 11k to 57k traders ovre quarter.
2) Revenue of $4.37 M, up around 5% on prior quarter.
3) Cash held now $49 M, up 12% on prior quarter.
4) Record trades for the month of September @ 137k trades.
5) Selfwealth have 6% market share of online investors, up from 4% in December 2019.
6) US trading platorm development is on track, as is new mobile UI for Q2 2021.
Overall a solid result, noting the first half of the financial year has historically been the weakest half for Selfwealth with respect to growth. Over H1 2019, SWF grew quarterly revenue <5%, & over H1 2020 SWF grew quarterly revenue <20%. In contrast, over H2 2019, SWF grew quarterly revenue >45%, and over H2 2020, SWF grew quarterly revenue >200%.
It seems that SelfWealth is here to stay. Rather then being a one pump chump and falling over after the explosive growth in CYQ1 and Q2 of this year, SelfWealth has had a record quarterly trade volume, record quarterly operating revenue and record monthly trade volume in September.
They have also added 11,300 active traders for the quarter (more then they did in CYQ1 of this year!) IIt is important to know that the profit margin on trades is quite small but their investment in US Equity trading (for $9.5 USD flat fee) will add a significiant revenue stream for the business. Importantly, 'client cash held' where the business receives interest on theses funds, has increased to a record $409m over the quarter.
Rob Edgley has confirmed that even among the heavy investment in new mobile applications and US equity trading, the business has had its second cash flow positive quarter.
There are a lot of oppotunities for SelfWealth here, seeing strong organic growth here before they have even added their new refined app and US trading makes me very confident in their potential. They have a number of new competitiors however their first mover advantage coupled with their community engagement, cost effectiveness and fantastic support means they have created a fantastic foundation to grow from.
Further headlines below:
I had a chat with the MD a couple of days after the Annual Report came out.
Obviously since then SuperHero has been released
Found this little chestnut when reading about the new kid on the block Superhero, offering '$5' flat fees, it turns out if you don't pay a $9 per month fee (billed annually), you can't even place limit orders... (i.e. you cannot say I want to buy/sell a stock at $1.05, you have to buy at whatever the current market price is)
Good luck appealing to high volume traders guys!
In regards to OpenTrader, while they do have a much better approach to ownership and HIN's (and also have reasonably priced option trading over IG) they have a scalable brokerage model (attached). Might be good for micro day traders but other than this I think SWF comes out on top once again.
Everyone mentions Superhero as it's a fairly new kid on the block.
Has anyone looked into OpenTrader as a potential competitor? https://opentrader.com.au/
It obviously doesn't have the social aspect of trading as seen on SWF.
I just wanted to shed some light on the 'competitor' Superhero that is offering $5 flat fees.
The biggest and most glaring issue here is that you do not have your own HIN here and they are technically but not usefully CHESS sponsored. 'littleko' has a great summary of this on r/ausfinance:
"Note that the way they are achieving these low fees is through consolidation of stocks under a single HIN. This means that you don’t have your own HIN.
It’s unclear what this really means about them being CHESS sponsored. Their FAQs suggest the shares are CHESS but they also say you can’t transfer held shares in and out like you normally could through standard CHESS broker"
While I advocate each to their own, I am not dealing with a broker where I do not have absolute ownership and management of the securities I want to hold and trade. SelfWealth have transparent, user friendly and complete ownership focus when it comes to CHESS and HIN owndership of securities.
Just documenting a new trading platform competitor as I don't think it's been noted here. Superhero offer $5 trades and have a mobile app inspired by Robinhood.
One thing that strikes me as hard to understand is their pricing model and value proposition - the two tiers don't make things feel simple.
Here's a write up from Rask Media a few weeks back:
My sentiment echoes that of the article to see how things play out. In the short term, I'm keen to give this new platform a go.
Outstanding annual results (many of the threads have already gone into depth) and I personally believe that we will see a large move in shareprice when US investing is officially released.
Sticky Platform - I am a user of Selfwealth myself - I have also explored brokers such as CMC and Commsec and find Selfwealth the cheapest and easiest to use. The fresher looking app (which is set to get an upgrade this year) and easy to use platform makes it quite appealing for millennial investors (disclaimer: myself) to use.
Any consumers that have started on the platform due to the lower fees are going to stay when US investing is released and any that are converted over by the new cheap US investing may consider moving across other holdings due to the set fees.
Been investing on the swf platform for last year,and following company hoping they would not go broke.
After listening to following podcast I started building my SWF position.
I expect volatility but thats ok, think they will do great things. Revenue will climb and so will share price.
www.medicalmoney.com/episode30Today's Guest Robert EdgeleyManaging DirectorSelfWealth (ASX:SWF)www.selfwealth.com.au
My rough notes from podcast:
Disruptive company- online broker
9.5 - 5 open markets
Net interest margin on funds in holdings account
SelfEtf $100m seed from supporter
Subscription $20/month for full access.(I pay it and i dont waste cash.)
Selfwealth advisor portal they charge $9.5 per $70k
1000 new cutomers per week
Active users = cash or stock moved in.
20000- 50000 in 6 months.
Trades/month jan 33000, 134k june
Cashflow positive after 7years.
Market 1million accounts.
Lots of future improvements:
1. International trading November Phillip’s capital via a usa account
2. Mobile app remake November
International trading $9.5us
Foreign exchange 60basis points
US dollar account so dont have to convert currences every trade.
Selfwealth Full ear Presenation included the following update:
1) Active traders exceeded 50 000 in July. This represents at least 7.7% growth over the month of July. Confirms growth in new members is continuing apace.
2) Cash balance exceeded $400 m fo rthe first time in August. This represents 9% growth over a 7 week period.
3) US trading to launch between October and December - Only weeks away.
4) Continued improvements to the product, including live-pricing, independent research, & access to IPOs.
Item 4 above shows management's focus on solving customer problems and building a loyal customer base, and a great product in the process.
This update increases my confidence that revenue will exceed $22M this year.
DISC - I hold.
SWF founder Andrew Ward announced this morning that he has sold down ~40% of his holding to institutional investors. As you would expect the market had a nervous reaction with clear selling pressure.
If I am in a small position or am trading a stock more on momentum and see a founder sell down, then with only that one piece of information, I too would be incline to consider wheter I want to keep the position.
SWF is a large position for me and as a result I am following it very closely, tracking all their metrics and reading everything posted about them. This seems to be one of the worst kept secrets getting around.
Last week people on a variety of Stock forums were posting they had heard from brokers that Ward was selling. As you do when you read speculative posts from those you don’t know, you should either disregard it or take it with a large grain of salt and that is what I did.
However, it turns out they were right. So now I am more interested in what they had to say. They were suggesting Ward was selling and the buyers were a small group of parties that included some of Aussies top small cap funds.
Andrew Ward ceased to be Managing director a few months ago. I see two likely scenarios here. He either stepped down of his own accord for personal reasons or he was forced to step down. In either of those two cases, I would expect him to want to divest some of his net wealth out of SWF shares given he will have less to do with the business. As a result, I am not that surprised by today’s announcement.
These founder selldowns are typically done at a discount to entice funds to participate. This one was not; it appears it was actually at a slight premium of ~56c.
I have read posts on twitter this morning suggesting it is not a good look for him to sell straight after good news. The Open Market contract announcement last week was on the 24th, this founder sale was conducted before that on the 22nd.
It is highly unlikely that a group of funds got their full fill from just a $4.5 million sale. Now this morning they are able to buy it at a cheaper price on market and on top of that, after an additional positive contact announcement has been made. So, I expect them to be soaking up shares here.
I am much less interested in today’s substantial holding notice and much more interested in the ones coming in the future to see exactly which funds have been buying. I am sitting tight through this selling pressure this morning and If the share price fell too far below that 0.56 sale price, I would consider picking up some more.
As part of my and other member's valuations, economies of scale have been called out to equip SelfWealth with bargining power in new and ongoing contract negotiations. While the details will remaining confidential, SelfWealth has signed a 3 year deal with OpenMarkets that will hinge on this new found scale and bargaining ability. I believe this validates the thesis and coupled with the increasing trade volumes and active traders we will continue to see SWF grow in this new Retail trading world.
Full Announcement here: https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200724/pdf/44kstd4clvyc0f.pdf
To all those who were saying SWF will get hurt when Robin Hood come to Australia and undercut them. Robinhood just pulled out of their long planned UK launch indefinitely and have put all global expansion plans on hold to focus solely on US markets.
A rather bullish development for Selfwealth.
An update on Robinhood UK
We’re saddened to share that we’ve made the difficult decision to postpone our UK launch indefinitely. We'll be closing our waitlist and taking down our UK website shortly.
The world has changed a lot over the past several months and we’re adapting with it. On a company level, we’ve come to recognise that our efforts are currently best spent on strengthening our core business in the US and making further investments in our foundational systems.
Since we announced our intent to launch in the UK, we’ve been fueled by your excitement for Robinhood and humbled by your response. We’re sorry that we cannot deliver the product we promised you this year.
Although our global expansion plans are on hold for now, we will continue our work to democratise finance for all and we look forward to the day when we can bring this mission to the UK.
The Robinhood UK Team
From the last update the increase in customers loading onto Selfweaths platform is a sign that the structural shift onto the online low cost broking environment is continuing strongly. This will drive up revenue for SWF and given it has now achieved some sort of scale as indicated by being cash flow positive from its last update it is well positioned to have any revenue made from further customers fall to the bottom line. Albeit they did say they were going to spend a little to better their platform, but I think this willl be more than compensated as the land grab of customers continues.
There was talk of competition from overseas players with the mention of ‘Zero-brokerage’ players, but from extensive research it is believed that the Australian market environment would not support these models, so the risk from these are minimal for now.
The growth opportunity for SWF in the current environment is favourable and should continue to grow.
With negative real interest rates (interest rate - inflation), investors are switching to riskier assets like never before. Selfwealth appears to be possibly the most direct beneficiary of this once in a generation phenomina.
I say it is once in a generation because, investors have never experienced a time in their lives where real interest rates are negative, and are searching for reasonable returns in riskier assets.
Here are the takeaways. I think you will agree these numbers are rare to see indeed:
1) Revenue up 101% over three months.
2) Active traders up 44% over three months.
3) Cashflow inflection point, with cashflow now running at +20% of receipts. Its maiden positive cashflow result.
We are heading into unprecedented and volitile times. Investing will be more challenging than ever, however, it is clear Selfwealth is one of the greatest ASX beneficiaries of the times.
An update on Self Wealth's site engagement*, as mentioned in my valuaton they were the #87,000 most popular enagaged site in Feburary and they are now are at #34,500~ at mid June.
My opinon on this statistic is greater use of its platform, greater exposure to new and prospective traders which translates into a higher number of accounts and extrapolating from this, higher revenue and interest on account funds.
*Please note that the way Alexa gets to this number is not fully available to the public an is a blend of time spent on site as well as how much unique new traffic is visiting the site. They are quite reliable in their metrics (in my use with them in the past however please take every statistic that you cannot view the data for with a pinch of salt.
SelfWealth is by far the biggest position in my personal portfolio. It was also the first trade I put on Strawman where I allocated the maximum. I decided to trim it back on here because I have been tweeting to death about it non-stop for months and people are probably sick of hearing about it. That being said, here is why SWF is still my best and highest conviction idea.
SWF experienced a sudden spike in growth in Jan/Feb which had been made public via The ASX, They raised money at 0.14 and were trading at 0.16. Then when Covid panic hit, the shares were sold off hard along with everything else. But they shouldn’t have been. Over 50% of SWF gross revenue comes from trade volumes. The ASX volume had exploded as people panic sold all their positions in March. Those that sold their positions also left a large portion of the funds from those sales sitting in their Selfwealth cash accounts. The net interest margin on those cash accounts is the other main component of SWF revenue.
It was the perfect storm, a spike in growth combined with a huge surge in trade volumes and cash accounts. I was buying heavily at 0.10 and accumulated a position far beyond my rule/guideline for maximum position size, as was my conviction.
With SWF now trading closer to 30c it is a different proposition, but not necessarily a less attractive one. SWF now finds itself much less under the radar than a few months ago (For example it is now in the top 20 on Strawman) it has attracted recent buying from Funds and liquidity is picking up.
At this point in time in would be naïve and arrogant of me to assume that I know more that all the current buyers and sellers combined and that I can do a better job determining what the price should be. In fact, I think it is mistake to try and precisely value any company experiencing this sort of rapid growth. With improved liquidity and interest the market price should be given much more weight now and treated as a more reliable benchmark.
At this juncture I am instead using a different method to determine whether I think it is good value here. It is a method that I used very successfully when sports betting into liquid markets. That is, take the current market price as your most accurate base assumption, then handicap that price based on specific pockets of information that you believe the market is misunderstanding.
There is currently a narrative among many, that the last quarter was just a Covid related spike and that things are now normalising. It is true that ASX volumes have returned to more normal levels, but what hasn’t slowed down is SelfWealth new clients signing up. Trade volumes are in a large part a derivative of the total client numbers.
I am currently tracking many metrics and data points that suggest growth in new traders this quarter will be huge. I assume the funds trying to get set around this 30c level are not silly and will also be expecting solid growth, but I think they are underestimating just how much. I think the next 4c will blow the expectations away of those currently paying 30c and that those same people will be happy to pay much higher prices.
The Longer-Term Outlook:
There are a couple of interesting self-fulfilling prophecies playing out positively for SWF at the moment.
1. SWF is in a unique position where it almost doesnt matter what the market does from here. If we contiue this melt up in markets Then the SWF share price will continue to get dragged higher like every other stock. If we experience another wave of covid or a different shock that causes a spike in volatility like in March, then trade volumes would increase again and Selfwealth would begin making even more money.
2. I recently took a look at the broke data for SWF and found the number one buyer was Open markets (who execute Selfwealth orders). In other words, Selfwealth customers are buying SWF shares. Your first thought may be “great” retail buying is a negative sign. On the contrary. We already know that funds are trying to get set. They are beginning to pop up on the register and if you follow the orderbook flow you would notice some of the ~300k line wipes in recent times, which is a sure foot print of big buyers.
But Selfwealth customers buying the stock is a phenomenon that adds fuel to this fire. You have a company that is currently growing new users at an insane rate of 50%+ every 3 months. Not only are these new users blowing up the company's revenues, but with every new customer you now have a potentially new and likely buyer of the stock.
3. Momentum and trend traders are a very different breed to your typical investor. They are not interested in the fundamentals of the company rather just the direction of the share price and that the volume backs it up. But SWF has had a big run, wouldn’t momentum traders be in there already? Sure, some would be, but the SWF run up happened quickly in just a few months, so it would not be on everyone’s radar yet. Also, the company market cap and liquidity were low which would have discouraged many.
The main point to make however is that unlike many investors, momentum traders do not suffer from an anchoring bias. They don’t care that the price is higher than where they could have once bought it, in fact they relish that as a good sign and a buy signal.
Funds, retail buyers and SelfWealth customers will continue to buy, putting a floor under the price, while momentum traders will continue to flock to the stock as it pushes higher.
4. A common theme that seems to be of concern to many is that a big player with deep pockets will come in and start a price war with SelfWealth. Perhaps someone that can afford to run a trading platform at a loss in order to leverage other more profitable financial products to clients. In my experience these types of companies don’t really want to get their hands dirty. They are unlikely to go to all the effort to try and wrestle market share from Selfwealth. This could take years and a much more attractive option would be to just make a take-over bid and begin leveraging their other products immediately.
In other words Selfwealth is on route to becoming a very tasty takeover proposition.
Datt Capital became as significant shareholder late last month, and have provided their theis in theis blog:https://www.datt.com.au/blog/a-high-growth-opportunity-in-volatile-times
Their forecasts are very optimistic, I don't Can't come up with earnings anywwhere near their estimate.
But if they want to pump the stock, it is OK by me........
DISC: I hold
30 April 20: Datt Capital became a substantial holder holding 6.37% [12.37m] at around $0.21. They put out a research note outlining their thesis. This is a positive recognition of the company.
Selfwealth report remarkable numbers for Q3.
Targeting the launch of the international trading platform late 2020.
All signs pint to selfwealth having crossed the chasm, and is beignning to scale.
17 Mar 20: Lally +71,428 @ $0.14 [729,596] +$10,000
1) Selfwealth are winning 25% of new or switching active traders (15000+ accounts per annum), with their estimated market share increasing to 4%. However, SWF reported 1741 new accounts in January, which equates to a run rate of 20000+ new customers per annum.
2) Strong trends of January are continuing into February.
But, SWF have just $1.5 Million in the bank, and are burning cash at a rate of ~$500k per quarter (although ETF costs were paid upfront last quarter). But, I expect cash burn to fall to $330k this quarter, With breakeven by the end of the calendar year possible.
With the market downturn, it is possible there will be a jump in trades and cash, which is great for SWF. They could surprise on the upside this quarter.
Some of it was to be expected, but it was still generally faster than I expected.
January vs Q2
Trades: +24.4% vs Monthly Average of Q2 (in line with expectations. Last year's Q3 was +29.6%, but +24.4% off a larger base is good)
Active Clients: +8% vs end of Q2 (+3735 and +4125 for the past 2 quarters. 3 months like Jan would be +5223 in Q3. It's +0.4% market share in 1 month. I'm thinking advertising was low too. Possibly some people started the application process before Christmas, and only just finished it in January, but hopefully the Jan numbers will repeat)
Client Cash: +19.9% vs end of Q2 (somewhat expected, since people withdrew money before the Christmas holidays, but this was still fast, almost reaching my full quarter target) Interest income should have no costs involved, so +19.9% is nice and should flow straight to cashflow, and luckily RBA kept rates on hold this week.
Revenue: +21% vs Monthly Average of Q2 (up at the mid-point of +24.4% trades and +19.9% client cash)
Cash per active trader: Increased to $6950 from $6250-6550 for the past 5 quarters. I can't explain that. That would be a good trend if it keeps up. Possibly advisers bringing on higher net worth clients.
Trader per trader per month: Back up to 1.4, from 1.22 at Christmas. Past 4 quarters was 1.22-1.45 (1.45 after EOFY sale free trades given out). 1.4 is strong - not sure why it's above trend - maybe market volatility as somebody mentioned.
Average revenue per user: up from Christmas, but below trend, but to be expected after the October RBA cut. Being up after Christmas would be due to the trades per trader per month metric rising.
Revenue per trade: down from $15.01 at Christmas to $14.59 (total of all revenue, divided by total trades). Possibly suggesting a higher rate of free trades, meaning lots of people using the referral program and free trades in January.
Market share: From ~4.8% after December to ~5.2% at end of January.
ETF: still weak.
Adviser: no stats provided.
So growth confirmed for January with some metrics above target and some in line with target. Good result.
The top of the image shows SelfWealth, NABTrade, Commsec over 2 years.
The bottom shows SelfWealth, NABTrade over 1 year.
Over 2 years - Commsec was flat, NABTrade decreased a little, and SelfWealth increased a lot, but is still significantly smaller than both of them.
Over 1 year, SelfWealth went from ~6 times smaller than NABTrade to ~3 times smaller (search volume wise - not necessarily market share). So according to that, SelfWealth's brand searches doubled or more. That's roughly in line with SWF's active members number which more than doubled.
So of the 3 companies, SWF is the only one growing quickly. In 1 year, they might be matching NABTrade. Another competitor that I didn't add to the chart is CMC Markets, which SWF is approaching and about to overtake in 1 quarter (in Australia only).
So it's interesting seeing SWF approaching and overtaking competitors.