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#Bull Case
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Added 3 years ago

Bull Case - limited downside risk on the current price with plenty of upside.  I have burnt alot of mony in TD1 in the past and had closed out my position completely due to an inability to convert the progress of the product into any meaningful sales and a capital raise with BCCI which was dissappointing for exising holders.

Some recent developments caught my attention:

  • The Akili agreement with milestone payments and royalties in the US market should solve the sales and revenue issue and help demonstate the health case to other markets.  
  • Advanced patent position in mulitple countries.  The Akili agreement demonstrates the strength of the patents.
  • Trials have demonstrated the benefit of the product
  • On market Director purchases this week - this was what pushed me back into buying.

I think at $0.033 this is a good price for a small position.  I shall try to be far more stoic on this one in future.  Progress with Akili could take 2 years but if successful will make TD1 a highly profitiable business that could trade on a very high multipe given its ability to scale rapidly, high margin potential and ESG appeal.  I have a strong view that a US based partners are critical for launching into the US healthcare market.  The plan from here will be to grow into this position as TD1 starts to deliver.

Below is a short investment thesis I had put together on this story stock when I was more heaviliy invested back in 2019.  The share price was over $0.06.  These recent developments in 2019 would have pushed this stock over $0.20.  This is my first post on the platform, so thank you for reading, feedback would be great, also thank you for all the posts from the Strawman community.

Tali Health – (TD1) - 2019  - Price was $0.06

TALI Digital Limited (TD1, formerly Novita Healthcare Limited) is a tech company focuses on development of software solutions to address neurological conditions in early childhood through its TALi platform. TALi platform is a scientific and clinically validated program that addresses the early childhood issue-inattention, a key feature in conditions including ADHD and ASD.

Key Goals Achieved

  • NDIS
  • US CPT reimbursement code for Tali Detect and Tali Train
  • UK distributor Edutech
  • US – Google Education Partner
  • Registration as a medical device, TGA, FDA (ARTG Class 1, FDA Class 2), CE Mark Europe.
  • 3 NDIS registration classes in Australia, 286,015   participants   in   the   NDIS   with approximately 10% of that number suitable to utilise TALi
  • Patent Granted in Australia

What I Like

  • App, extremely scalable high margin, high valuation space.
  • $6,100,000 cash at bank.
  • Top 20 Shareholders hold 46.63%
  • CEO has demonstrated he can reduce cash burn in this infant stages.
  • Large global market – 9.4% of US children currently diagnosed with ADHD – US market 8-10 million children for screening.
  • ESG $$

Issues and Risk

  • Lack of revenue - $8000 in Q2, but work being done to turn trial Tali Detect into revenue in Term 1 2020 in schools.
  • Investor relations are undercooked, an issue with a fake result trial as dogged the shareprice.
  • Failed trial result of Tali Detect – product is still in development.
  • Tali Train is scientifically proven and case studies reinforce results.
  • Patent Filed not granted, very broad, might not be an issue.

Strategies

  • Currently employing BDMs to address sales
  • Employing a part time investor relations professional.
  • Expansion Australia, USA, UK, EU
  • Other neurological applications for the technology

Upcoming announcements

  • Publication of clinical trial results from CRC-P
  • Tali Detect trial in Victorian education
  • Registration in NHS
  • Update on screening and conversion to paid training through Schools
  • Reimbursement –rollout into USA and partner acquisition update
  • Update on “other potential channel partners” globally to drive awareness, recognition and sales of TALI
  • Duke University Psychology, Neuroscience and Medical Center to deploy TALI to approximately 2,000 children