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Last edited 5 years ago
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17.6% pa
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#Bull Case
stale
Added 5 years ago

TRY looks to have put in a base and broken out from a year long downtrend. Heavier volume of green days supporting the basing action, particularly given $0.10 has been broken and held. FA is a bit ordinary still, however, TRY did a recent CR to help balance sheet and pay off debt, high cost producer with short mine life (large resources though) so should the gold price hold or keep breaking out, high cost leverage stocks can be powerful return generator in a commodity cycle. If things are back on track operation wise, TRY could go from making ~USD0/oz operating cash flow last quarter to up to ~USD500/oz this quarter (~+150 from hedges rolling off & ~+350 from cutback rolling off costs). Based on my scenario analysis TRY is worth between$ 0.061 and $0.32 (average of all 5 scenarios is $0.205) depending how operations track over the back end of the CY. In a real life portfolio, a stock in this position should be positioned like it’s a quasi-call option.