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#ASX Announcements
stale
Added 3 years ago

Despite Dan Andrews instructions to get on the beers, it seems we have switched as a nation from beer to wine. Australian consumption preferences are now bottled wine is 34% of the market, regular strength beer 19%, although if you add mid and low strength, total beer is 33% bottled spirits are around 15% and then there is the rest.

Treasury is in the market if flogging us wine, they hold some respectable brands including Penfolds. 

The business has been significantly covid restriction, supply chain interruptions, and China no longer friends with Australia impacted – if you recall they slapped 200% tariffs on Australian wine imports. 

The company is attempting to circumvent this by growing grapes for Penfolds in France. CEO Tim Ford said the company plans to launch a French collection of Penfolds. Ford said, “It’s going to take us multiple years as we build up our luxury wine portfolios out of France and America to really meet that demand over time, and we look at that as a long-term journey to rebuild our market there in China.”

Results released today for the half ending December ‘21:

  • Revenue of $1.27 billion, down 10.1% year-on-year 
  • Earnings before a myriad of acronyms of $262.4 million, down 6.7% year-on-year 
  • Net profit after tax of $109.1 million, down 7.5% year-on-year
  • Interim dividend of 15.0 cents per share fully franked


The market though this was ok, mostly as the business managed to grow without China. 

Ford said the business is shifting from ‘recovery and restructuring’ to one of ‘growth and innovation’. 

This is where you must have a leap of faith that restriction and supply chain issues will see consumers returning as before, and they can resurrect the China market by other means. In my mind this is the primary question, but competitors are not going to sit on the sidelines. 

This one is not currently on my shopping list. I still like beer.



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Valuation of $11.80
stale
Added 3 years ago
18/08/21 The Treasury Wines share price is up 17% in 3 months ($12.79) possibly due to a bullish Investor Day presentation where TWE revealed its strategy to improve margins and profits. This was desperately needed given profit margins had fallen from 17% in 2018 to 9% in 2020. But how does the TWE share price compare with future goals? The TWE strategic goal is to increase earnings at a CAGR of 27% over the next 5 years. The analysts don’t quite believe this and are factoring in 24% CAGR in earnings over the next 3 years (Simply Wall Street data), and a future ROE of 12%. Looks great if it can be achieved. So what if we were to value TWE based on these optimistic forecasts using, Value = E x PE Value (2024) = $507 million/721 million shares x 24^ = $16.87 (^ I have used a PE of 24 based on a forecast earnings CAGR of 24% and a 3yr 12% ROE). Discounted at 10% per year = $16.87 x 0.7 = $11.80 Goldman Sachs have a Neutral rating on TWE and a price target of $10.60. I think the TWE share price has over-run its value and this could be a good time to reduce the position. Disc: Held
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##19Crimes
stale
Added 4 years ago

Interesting article in The Age 15/5 about Treasury's US expansion using Snoop Dog as their front for advertising.  Getting good uptake in the younger/cheaper market.  Worth a read.  May give the direction required during China woes.  I do think they will execute in to other parts of Asia reasonably over time.  It wont be massive growth but could be steady over many years.

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Valuation of $12.40
stale
Added 6 years ago
rough and ready valuation: Using EPS of 60c in FY19 (generous and above consensus) Using a PE of 25 (also generous) And discounting by 10% per year
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