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Last edited 5 years ago
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#Bear Case
stale
Added 5 years ago

Things may not be as rosy as the hype suggests:

1) CFO resigns after only 9 months on the job, and with no notice.   The announcement says he left to take up a position elsewhere, but his linkedin account has not been updated, and it is usual to provide at least 4 weeks notice to enable a smooth transition.   

2) VLT engages RAAS to right up an "independant" analyst report.   

3) There are questions surrounding the CARR values reported, which seem to differ from ARR as reported by Vault on November 29, 2019.   Will the CARR ever materialise?  It depends on what "contracted" really means.  

#Bear Case
stale
Last edited 5 years ago

VLT is using shareholder capital to fund analyst reports. Raas (Research As A Service) Advisory - that is their name I kid you not. 

I don't see a smart watch app as much of a competitve advantage.

This is promotional / stock pumping approch by management is a big red flag for me.   

#Industry/competitors
stale
Added 5 years ago

The OH & S software space is quite crowded, and fragmented. 

The Environment, Health and Safety software space is currently going through a transition to the cloud, with Verdantix estimating the TAM to be $1.2 Billion in 2019, and growing at an annual rate of 9.2% pa, and is forecast to reach $2.4 billion by 2024.   NICE TAILWIND. 

Intelex is the biggest player, and has revenue of $100 - 200 M in annual revenue (hard to nail this number down), with 10-15 % market share.  Intelex was acquired by a large US conglomerate, Fortive, in July 2019.  There are approximately 15-20 competitors in this space, but they are generally focused on USA and Europe.   The exception is SAI Global, which was brought out by Barings in 2016, and who were founded in Australia. 

My thoughts are:  1) there is no dominant player.  2) The leaders are focused on USA / Europe  3) The largest competitor has recently been brought out, and may lose focus. 

Vault Intelligence is only a small player at the moment.  But it does have a laser focus on this market, as opposed to some of its competitors, that appear to have a variety of products / services.   It will be beneficial to monitor Verdantix 's industry reviews, and rating of the business service offiering.