Presently (and possibly, for good reason), the market is pricing Webjet (ASX:WJL) as a crap Frappe.

·        The chart looks lousy – year lows

·        Senior management is walking away (or has already)

·        The much vaunted 5-year plan is in disarray, and the buyback plan has been discontinued

·        The potential suitors (BGH and Helloworld) have walked (spoiler alert: have they?)

·        Two recent outlook downgrades

·        FY27 looks bleak, given worsening world conditions for out-and-out tourism/traveling

·        And then there is the spectre of AI disruption.

But maybe, beneath the surface, those two gummy sharks (BGH and Helloworld) are still biting at those little web feet. After all, the market cap of circa $250m is made up of half cash ($134m), and neither has shown the true ‘surrendered flag’ of selling down their previously accumulated stake. BGH hasn’t sold any and holds 18.3%, while Helloworld actually bought more in mid-March, so it too holds circa 18.3%. I haven’t bothered to calculate their actual price, but it's definitely well north of the current SP. Both hold blocking stakes.

It seems something will have to give, as both parties want to get their capital back, plus more, and this could be our opportunity to participate. The previously offered prices of circa 90 cents are no longer available, but buying at 50 cents provides a good runway that could be filled within 12 months. At the very least, I don’t think there is any major material downside. Net cash provides a floor, and HelloWorld's recent buying at 56 cents is a pretty good reference point. I hold in real life, but Caveat Emptor, of course, and one must figure in a clusterFXXk FY27 if the missiles start up again and Hormuz again becomes ‘constipation corner’ for fuel or some smart little Geek comes up with a way to disrupt online travel.  

$369 million market cap. $118 million in cash.

Management planning to buy back shares and start paying a dividend this FY.

Currently BGH Capital and Helloworld Travel, are still stalking the company. But I don't think anyones taking Helloworld seriously and the Webjet board rejected the first offer from BGH at $0.80. No new offer since April and the share price has held above the offer since. The bid caused the board to delay announcing a share buy back initiative.

Really comes down to the last dot point. IF trading remains flat, I think the stock is undervalued (P/E 17.7 underlying NPAT) for a capital light, market leader and increasing overseas travel + a unique mix and match technology offering. I'm waiting to see how much of that cash they think they need to hold on to versus how much is used to buy back shares. International travel from Australia is up year on year.

I prefer the growth prospects of Web Travel and may look to sell Webjet (WJL) for Web Travel.

Disc - held IRL from the demerger.

Webjet faces Federal Court over alleged misleading advertising and unfulfilled flight bookings.

The first day of the case will be heard in Federal Court on Thursday afternoon.