* The 2024 guidance is for 35-39 million tonnes of attributable saleable production.

YANCOAL AUSTRALIA LIMITED (ASX:YAL) - Ann: 2024 Annual General Meeting Address and Presentation, page-1 - HotCopper | ASX Share Prices, Stock Market & Share Trading Forum

Outlook:

Greg Fletcher. I am the Co-Vice Chairman, an Independent Non-executive Director of Yancoal, and Chair of the Audit and Risk Management Committee

This year, we aim to produce at a level similar to the second half of 2023. The 2024 guidance is for 35-39 million tonnes of attributable saleable production. Output will vary quarter-to-quarter due to mine plan sequences, longwall moves and planned maintenance, and there will be a second half weighting to the production profile.

We aim to bring the cash operating costs per tonne down from the full-year 2023 level, and are focused on output given the direct relationship between the volumes we produce and the per tonne cash operating costs we report.

We have guided to Cash operating costs of $89/tonne - $97/tonne. Overall, it was another very strong performance by Yancoal in 2023. We finished the year with great operational momentum and a very strong financial position. That completes the 2023 review, I would like to hand back to Greg Fletcher for the remainder of the meeting.

We have distributed to shareholders A$2.5 billion of unfranked and A$1.8 billion of fully franked dividends since 2018.  

Return (inc div)   1yr: 54.28%   3yr: 74.02% pa   5yr: 29.40% pa

Ex Divi: 5th Sept 2024 , Gross Div: 15.37%

5Yr Coal price

Dividends: The resource seactor generally been good. Will have to reduce the'payout Ratio'

Free Cash flow is drying up:

Recalibrate the business!

... ..........................

March Quarter 2024 (1Q 2024) A$180/t average realised coal price.

$260 million increase in cash holding.

$1.66 billion cash balance at 31 March 2024.

1 14.0Mt ROM coal production (100% basis). 11.3Mt Saleable coal production (100% basis).

8.8Mt Attributable saleable coal production.

8.3Mt Attributable coal sales

YANCOAL AUSTRALIA LIMITED (ASX:YAL) - Ann: Quarterly Activities Report, page-1 - HotCopper | ASX Share Prices, Stock Market & Share Trading Forum

The overall realised coal price declined 8% from 4Q 2023, comprising a 12% decline in the realised thermal coal price and a 14% uplift in the realised metallurgical coal price. The realised thermal coal price was in line with coal index trends while the realised metallurgical coal price was better than the relevant indices due to higher priced carryover being supplied within the period. 

But for the holders:

The company retains a strong financial position. We held $1.66 billion in cash at the end of March. Of this sum, $429 million goes to paying the fully franked 2023 Final dividend (A$0.325/share) on 30th April. 

outlook 2024

No BIG graphics of the Revenue.. Because - Revenue 2023 3,976m VS 2022 4,879m down (20%) 

But the dividend payment today is 37cps ( annually 107cps ) (Better than Spodumene!!!)

Divi' penciled in a Forecast 2024 annual 132cps so plenty of cash flow.

@wtsimis while the coal theme.

YAL annual dividend: 107cps

Share price at close: 514cps

= 20.82%pa

100%franked

Ex Dividend date: 5/9/2023

Ex Dividend: 5/9/2023

While looking at Dividends

https://strawman.com/reports/WHC/wtsimis

#wtsimis

2023 Interim dividend allocation is $489 million, A$0.3700/share (fully franked).

• The ~A$1.23/share 2022 Total dividend was a 20% dividend yield on the A$6.06/share year end share price.

• Franking credits of $1.4 billion available at 30 June 2023 for subsequent reporting periods, prior to the proposed $489 million interim dividend, assuming an income tax rate of 30%

Get the Dividend still time: Forecast Ex Div Date: 05/09/2023 (19 days away)

The Important Stuff below:

Trend is up:

They need coal..Burn, Burn..

Return (inc div)   1yr: 16.63%   3yr: 53.09% pa   5yr: 14.96% pa

Key takeaways:

1. Saleable production of 29.4 Mt, down from 36.7 Mt in the prior year.
2. Avg realised sale price of $387 / Tonne, vs $141 / tonne prior year.
3. Revenue : $10.5 billion, up from %5.4 Billion in prior year.
4. NPAT: $3.5 billion or $2.70 per share
5. Final Dividend: 70 cents per share fully franked.

Outlook:

1. 2023 sales production guidance of 31-36 Mt.
2. Operating cash costs: $92-102 / Tonne.
3. Capital expenditure of $750 - 900 million.

Coal prices:

Yancoal assessment of coal prices going forward is:

1. US$69-$239 / Tonne for thermal
2. US$136-$240 / Tonne for metallurgical

The above estimate is based on the 2015 Paris Agreement, which indicates coal demand to be as follows:

• Seaborne demand for thermal coal to remain steady to 2024, then declining by 33% over the period to 2040.
• Seaborne metallurgical demand for metallurgical coal will actually increase up to 2040.

DISC - HELD

@Rapstar, I too think Yancoal is cheap (and tempting with its current valuation). That said, management don't exactly have a sparkling good track record and this business simply isn't managed as well as New Hope and Whitehaven. I think this is the main reason its cheap; it is mediocre alongside its competitors.

Their previous comments also suggest a shift away from coal. Part of what makes New Hope beautiful is their conservative management team: they are sensible capital allocators and have demonstrated that they actually give a shit about their shareholders -- large and small. New Hope management shouldn't and won't do something silly, like acquire a random iron ore mine in Mozambique (tongue in cheek here, but you get my point). I can't say the same for Yancoal; management worry me. So despite the attractive valuation, this one is a no for me.

There currently is a significant disparity in thermal coal prices, as indicated below:

• Newcastle Thermal coal, 6000kCal price per Tonne: $421 USD (Sept. 30 2022)
• API5, 5500kCal price per Tonne: $195 USD (Sept. 30 2022)

The 2021 YAL Annual report stated the majority of YAL thermal coal is sold on contracts linked to the API5 5500 kCal index..

However, in 2021, Yancoal implemented a "hard wash" strategy to reduce the ash content of its API5 coal in order to upgrade a portion of it to Newcastle Thermal coal 6000kCal grade. The hard wash strategy added $2 / Tonne production cost to the API5 coal in question (reported in 2021 AR), and is generating a remarkable return in the process.

Despite the Q3 2022 quarterly report stating that the majority of thermal coal is sold under the API5 5500 kCal index, the actual prices achieved reveal 62% of thermal coal was sold under the Newcastle Thermal coal, 6000kCal index price in Q3 2022.

I believe the market is misunderstanding the value of Yancoal's reserves, and its ability to generate higher returns through its "hard wash" strategy.

DISC - HELD.

Chinese authorities are said to be considering a partial end to the Australian coal ban

News article here