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#2023 Interim Report
stale
Added 8 months ago

No BIG graphics of the Revenue.. Because - Revenue 2023 3,976m VS 2022 4,879m down (20%) 

But the dividend payment today is 37cps ( annually 107cps ) (Better than Spodumene!!!)

Divi' penciled in a Forecast 2024 annual 132cps so plenty of cash flow.

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#Ex Dividend Percent
stale
Added 9 months ago

@wtsimis while the coal theme.

YAL annual dividend: 107cps

Share price at close: 514cps

= 20.82%pa

100%franked

Ex Dividend date: 5/9/2023


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#ex Dividend Date
stale
Added 9 months ago

Ex Dividend: 5/9/2023

While looking at Dividends

https://strawman.com/reports/WHC/wtsimis

#wtsimis

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#Half-year Financial Results 20
stale
Added 9 months ago

2023 Interim dividend allocation is $489 million, A$0.3700/share (fully franked).

• The ~A$1.23/share 2022 Total dividend was a 20% dividend yield on the A$6.06/share year end share price.

• Franking credits of $1.4 billion available at 30 June 2023 for subsequent reporting periods, prior to the proposed $489 million interim dividend, assuming an income tax rate of 30%

Get the Dividend still time: Forecast Ex Div Date: 05/09/2023 (19 days away)


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The Important Stuff below:


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Trend is up:

They need coal..Burn, Burn..

Return (inc div)   1yr: 16.63%   3yr: 53.09% pa   5yr: 14.96% pa

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Valuation of $6.70
stale
Edited one year ago

Yancoal is currently trading on trailing PER of 2.3. However, coal prices are moderating..

Board policy is to pay out at least 50% of profit / cashflow as dividends. So the dividend yield is running above 20%.

Valuation of reserves: 3700 Million Tonnes (assumed 60% of resource is mineable). EV @ $1 per Tonne of coal. The market appears to be discounting about 90% of the resource.

Net tangible assets as at June 30, 2022: $5.11 per share.

NTA as at December 31, 2022: $6.03

Based on median Met coal of USD $188/ Tonne, and thermal coal of USD $150/Tonne, and total production cost of AUD $147 / Tonne, I come up with EPS of $1.49. At a PER of 5, I come up with a valuation of $7.40.

I am splitting the difference between NTA and median guidance of $1.49 EPS.


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#FY2022 results
stale
Last edited one year ago

Key takeaways:

  1. Saleable production of 29.4 Mt, down from 36.7 Mt in the prior year.
  2. Avg realised sale price of $387 / Tonne, vs $141 / tonne prior year.
  3. Revenue : $10.5 billion, up from %5.4 Billion in prior year.
  4. NPAT: $3.5 billion or $2.70 per share
  5. Final Dividend: 70 cents per share fully franked.


Outlook:

  1. 2023 sales production guidance of 31-36 Mt.
  2. Operating cash costs: $92-102 / Tonne.
  3. Capital expenditure of $750 - 900 million.


Coal prices:

Yancoal assessment of coal prices going forward is:

  1. US$69-$239 / Tonne for thermal
  2. US$136-$240 / Tonne for metallurgical


The above estimate is based on the 2015 Paris Agreement, which indicates coal demand to be as follows:

  • Seaborne demand for thermal coal to remain steady to 2024, then declining by 33% over the period to 2040.
  • Seaborne metallurgical demand for metallurgical coal will actually increase up to 2040.


DISC - HELD

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#Considerations
stale
Added one year ago

@Rapstar, I too think Yancoal is cheap (and tempting with its current valuation). That said, management don't exactly have a sparkling good track record and this business simply isn't managed as well as New Hope and Whitehaven. I think this is the main reason its cheap; it is mediocre alongside its competitors.

Their previous comments also suggest a shift away from coal. Part of what makes New Hope beautiful is their conservative management team: they are sensible capital allocators and have demonstrated that they actually give a shit about their shareholders -- large and small. New Hope management shouldn't and won't do something silly, like acquire a random iron ore mine in Mozambique (tongue in cheek here, but you get my point). I can't say the same for Yancoal; management worry me. So despite the attractive valuation, this one is a no for me.

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#Management's Arbitrage Strateg
stale
Added one year ago

There currently is a significant disparity in thermal coal prices, as indicated below:

  • Newcastle Thermal coal, 6000kCal price per Tonne: $421 USD (Sept. 30 2022)
  • API5, 5500kCal price per Tonne: $195 USD (Sept. 30 2022)

The 2021 YAL Annual report stated the majority of YAL thermal coal is sold on contracts linked to the API5 5500 kCal index..

However, in 2021, Yancoal implemented a "hard wash" strategy to reduce the ash content of its API5 coal in order to upgrade a portion of it to Newcastle Thermal coal 6000kCal grade. The hard wash strategy added $2 / Tonne production cost to the API5 coal in question (reported in 2021 AR), and is generating a remarkable return in the process.

Despite the Q3 2022 quarterly report stating that the majority of thermal coal is sold under the API5 5500 kCal index, the actual prices achieved reveal 62% of thermal coal was sold under the Newcastle Thermal coal, 6000kCal index price in Q3 2022.

I believe the market is misunderstanding the value of Yancoal's reserves, and its ability to generate higher returns through its "hard wash" strategy.

DISC - HELD.





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#Chinese coal ban under review
stale
Added one year ago

Chinese authorities are said to be considering a partial end to the Australian coal ban


News article here

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