Top member reports
No meetings
Consensus community valuation
The consensus valuation is for members only and has been removed from this chart. Click for membership options.
Contributing Members
Content is delayed by one month. Upgrade your membership to unlock all content. Click for membership options.
#Bear Case
stale
Added 2 years ago

Energy prices remain elevated for an extended period, driven by falling Russian supply, and rising demand from a re-opening China. Also, the transition to renewables will provide demand for energy in production and construction of renewables, particularly as production scales.

I initiated a position last month. It was the wrong call, with energy prices continuing to rise.

As long as energy prices remain high, the Aussie dollar will do well.

However, high prices will ultimately be cured by high prices, it is just taking longer than many were expecting.

Read More
#Bull Case
stale
Added 2 years ago

In a inflationary/deflationary environment, the USD tends to outperform the AUD.

The AUD has lost about 8% of its value against the USD since early April. High energy and food prices, in conjunction with tightening monetary policy is likely to result in a global economic slowdown. We are already experiencing base metal prices collapsing, which is an early warning sign of deflation.

USD is a safer place to hold cash in an environment of decelerating growth. Although, this fund is geared, which increases volatility.

RISK - China initiates looser monetary policy, stimulating infrastructure & investment. This could be counter the deceleration in global growth.

Read More