13-August-2020: Resources & Reserves, and Guidance Update (ex-KCGM)
PRODUCTION SET TO INCREASE 30% OVER NEXT TWO YEARS AND COSTS TO FALL 10%
FY21 production guidance (ex-KCGM) is 720koz-820koz; Production (ex-KCGM) is forecast to rise to ~900koz in FY22 and ~1Moz in FY23, driving down AISC by 10%; Resources increase by 3.2Moz, underwriting longer mine lives and increased cashflow.
Resources at June 30, 2020
Reserves at June 30, 2020
--- click on the link at the top for the full announcement ---
[I hold NST - they are my #1 Australian Gold Producer pick, and have been for the past decade.]
This is an interesting company. They are proposing to develop a new biomedical imaging technology that uses magnetic nanoparticles that are specifically targeted to a cancer type.
There are two parts to the strategy. The first which they have delivered on to some extent is the synthesis of iron oxide particles coated with a stealth polymer coating and conjugated with antibodies that target breast cancer. The in vitro cell studies for this in breast cancer cell lines looked convincing and the toxicology studies showed low toxicity. I haven't seen any animal work, but they seem to be looking to do some first in human studies this year. Still a long way to go here but a good start. They have sold $300k of the nanoparticles to an Israeli company.
The second aspect is developing the instrumentation that can detect this particles for clinical use. They have partners for instrument development, but the progress and role of each partner is not clear. It is also not clear how far off the clinical instruments are from even getting a prototype. There is a lot of work to do on the instrument side. In theory the instrumentation they are developing is more sensitive, i.e. can detect smaller tumours, but it is not clear what sort of read out/image would be obtained.
They can do the first in human studies using MRI systems, but these particles are not ideal contrast agents for use in MRI. The physics means that particles make images duller (negative contrast) rather than brighter (positive contrast). Positive contrast is easier to pick up. In saying that they do have a partnership with Siemens a major MRI system supplier.
All in all there is potential here, but still lots of work to do to show real clinical efficacy. We are probably talking at least 10 years for their primary aim of developing clinical magnetic relaxometry scanners.
Looking at Novatti's financials (FY19-20 Annual Report) I'm getting a much different view than some of the ones already posted.
•Revenue has increased 31% yoy
•Net loss has more than doubled yoy
•Cash flow negative -$2.763M
•Less than 1 years cash runway suggesting another capital raise is on the near horizon
•Negative shareholders’ equity
How will I know if I got the thesis wrong?