PeregrineCapital
PeregrineCapital
Focus on Listed Real Estate, Investment Companies and Alternative Assets
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#85

Followers
8
22.5% pa
Since April 2020
4.4%
last 3 months
8.8%
last 6 months
23.0%
last 12 months
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Added a valuation for NAOS Ex-50 Opportunities Company Limited of $1.100
5 days ago
Justification
Has a fully diluted NTA of around $1.20. For me NAOS has a lot of overlap between this and NSC and the two should be merged. The way to play this could be through the convertible notes - NACGA. Wouldn't be surprised if Wilson's new vehicle has a close look at this one.
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Added a valuation for NAOS Emerging Opportunities Company Limited of $1.000
5 days ago
Justification
Has outperformed it's benchmark since inception (even after fees) and I like the strategy they employ. It's problem is that it's small, has high fees and there are about 5,000,000 options still yet to be exercised at a price of $1.02. On top of that there are a bunch of convertible notes out on the stock with a conversion price of $1.15 which would put a dampener on things if performance continues to be strong. Interested
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Increased their valuation for APN Industria REIT from $3.12 to $3.21
5 days ago
Justification
Todays update is positive and exceeds my previous thesis in terms on NTA growth. Still confident my DCF is pretty accurate so will stick with that. Discount rate: 8.5% (1% higher than CIP) Starting Distribution= $0.175 Growth rate: 5% for 10 years (justified by improving vacancy, average rent reviews of 3% and a current payout ratio of 86%). Terminal growth rate = 2% (CPI proxy) giving value at year 10 of $4.45 including that years distribution) NPV = $3.21
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Edited their valuation for Scentre Group of $2.11
5 days ago
Justification
Q3 update doesn't really change any of the below. Cashflow is back to normal which is positive but no mention of leasing spreads is concerning. Hard to see upside. I've formed the opinion that a 7% yield is not even close to being enough to compensate an investor for the potential downside that SCG's assets are exposed to. Why would I buy SCG for $2.90 for a forecast distribution yield of circa 5% when I could buy CIP for the same yield? CIP's portfolio: a) has higher quality tenants and a better WALE b) has far better prospects of long term rental growth (positive leasing spreads) c) has more conservative gearing d) is more economically resilient e) has a similar cap rate (just under 5%) f) has a far lower cost of capital Assuming a normalised FFO of 18 cents and a 100% pay-out ratio (which is probably not feasible), a price of $2.11 would give you a yield of 8.5% which I would deem an acceptable return for the risk taken.
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Voted on a straw in #Capital Raise for Raiz Invest Limited by Storge
6 days ago
#Capital Raise

RZI have raised fresh capital of $10.2m at $1.50. 

My concern with RZI is that their Funds Under Management contines to grow strongly, but their cashflow growth is slowing which doesn't really make sense to me.  There free cash flow outflow is not reducing either.

CAPITAL
30 Apr 21: $10.2m placement at $1.50 [6.8m shares] @ 9.4% discount to the final closing price.  SPP to follow at the same price.