Biome Australia Limited

ASX:BIO

Biome Australia Limited

ASX:BIO
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$0.485 (+4.3%)
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#98
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15
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Reports (1) My Report Forum Investors
Forum Topics BIO BIO Business Update

Pinned straw:
mikebrisy
Added 2 months ago

More positive newsflow for probiotics brand $BIO in both Canada and Australia.

ASX Announcement

Hightlights

● Following a successful test market launch in Canada, Biome moves to an official market launch in both health retail and practitioner markets

● First Canadian staff member to start on the road (in Ontario) this November

● Three additional products approved by Health Canada in October

● Biome reaches a new three month record with 188,000 consumer units purchased of Activated Probiotics in Australian market, up ~60% vs PCP (Aug-Oct 2023)

● Terry White Chemmart retail scan sales reach $3.5m for 12 months to October up ~75%

● Biome Cholesterol Probiotic successfully launched internationally 


My Assessment

Good news all round.

Sales appear to be running ahead of the 50% my model requires for $BIO to hit the 2027 Strategic goals.

The test maketing period in Canada was shorter than I had in mind (no good reason), so the full commercial rollout with 12/17 products approved will start to get acoounts going this year. While the FY25 contribution to sales will be small, it sets things up nicely for FY26 and beyond. BVN has spoken very positively about the Canadian market in his last presentation, which as I recall was delivered while he was in Canada. A leading indicator of market traction will be indicated by the rate at which BVN adds further "educational" staff.

Overall, good news.

I'm happy to keep at my current RL position which is 2%, as I still see this as a higher risk proposition and will build my position over time.

Disc: Held in RL and SM
Shapeshifter
Added 2 months ago

@mikebrisy watching the share price of this stock is making my neck sore

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mikebrisy
Added 2 months ago

@Shapeshifter I'm ignoring the short term movements on this, except for when I am buying.

It's relatively illiquid, and what's happening is news is driving buying, which then falls away on no news.

Some of the news is "soft news", e.g., a sale rep added here, or a product approved in market X, whereas some is "hard news", i.e., a revenue or sales volume update.

Blair has an almost endless list of things he can communicate: sales, volumes, product X approved in market M, new product Y,..... not only at quarterly milestones but in between. He's clearly trying to sell the story and build confidence that Vision 2027 is on track.

So, we should assume that the SP will be volatile - nothing is going to change. I see this as good news, it means there should be opportunities to accumulate when the interest fades and the SP falls back.

Volatility = option value.

17
lowway
Added 2 months ago

Thanks for the update @mikebrisy. I've been watching from the sidelines using my SM portfolio as the test case (yeah, I know, probably not the intent of SM, but a strategy i use for about 50% of my SM portfolio). I'll be placing an order IRL portfolio in the few days.

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