I thought I would just run a little experiment in furtherance of my last bullet point. Looking at Edwards Life Sciences current price to sales ratio which is presently at 7.38. This is the dominant TAVR player but is currently slowly losing market share.
My current valuation for Anteris presumes a 2030 market cap of 8 billion USD with 67.6 million shares on issue, with 10% global TAVR market share.
If we take the cheaper $25,000 sale of the device mentioned in slide 25 (which assumes no premium) and multiple that by the conservative 7,300 patients of the 2019 (US only) TAVR market that gives sales of $182,500,000 USD. If we take the 7.38 price to sales multiple to that we get a market cap of just 1.35 billion USD. Divide that by the 1.7 x dilution I am expecting between post-IPO and 2030 (so a total of 67.6 million shares) and that gives a share price of only $19.90 USD. Discount that back by 10% a year to now and we have a share price of only $12.35, well below my $73.48 USD valuation.
Although not enough to shake me from my higher valuation, it does point out where some of the vulnerabilities are in my valuation and give pause for thought. I should point these out as to what my higher valuation is assuming:
- Accuracy in the projected global TAM for TAVR. Slide 4 puts the project TAM at $9.9 billion USD by 2028. Keeping with the low-ball $25,000 per surgery would suggest about 396,000 operations per year (not as crazy at is sounds) -- with 10% of that market being 39,600, not the 7,300 in my calculation. A higher price per device also gets to an estimate of TAM higher, but with less operations per year.
- Not too much happening to to shake up the effective duopoly of there being only enough room for a couple of major players - my valuations assumes that Anteris is pretty much the only up-and-coming competitor worth mentioning (which I think at this stage is true), and the process of being that competitor happens as slow as we are witnessing. Too much competition could bring the price of the valve unit well below the $25,000 I'm using in my calculations; and finally
- Anteris -- due to it's growth prospects required to go from 73 patients to 7,300 per year and beyond -- attracting higher multiples than the incumbents.