True about the past performance not necessarily being an indicator for future performance.

I kinda think that if the NDQ ETF collapses though, then my super balance will probably be the last thing I'm worried about, wont it.

Probably means the world order has been completely turned upside down.

I can think of one very good reason @topowl and that reason is that AustralianSuper only allow you to invest up to 50% of your super balance in NDQ - see the middle of the second page of this: Member Direct Investment Menu.pdf

These rules are there to stop people making bets that are considered by the trustees of AustralianSuper to be too large. You could do it within a fully self-managed super fund, but not from within an industry super fund.

Intriguing !

Maybe that's the gods saying weight-in at 50% with NDQ.

Perhaps 50% in another high-performing ETF....

But to be honest, NDQ was the one I had my eye on.

I mean the Vanguard (VAS) etf averages about the same over the last 15 years as the AusSuper Growth Option...8-9% pa I think.

I think key to the question is what level of volatility you can deal with (NDQ will be volatile). Remembering that the US market is trading on record high multiples (absolute and against rest of world) .There's good reasons for that but in any case. NDQ is pretty much just the Mag7 as well.

Australian Super will be more diversified and give exposure to other asset classes like private credit and private equity. They will artificially and well as well as legitimately smooth returns - which may help you sleep at night. I guess when you do get to retirement you have to be careful about sequencing risk if all you do own is NDQ too.

The other thing to take into account is the tax @topowl . The AustralianSuper growth option that you mention will be a return after tax, whereas the Member Direct NDQ option will be pre-tax. There will be tax on distributions received, and CGT in the event that you sell any units. If you hold your units in AustralianSuper until you convert it to pension mode you could avoid the CGT, but if you move from AustralianSuper, or sell your units for any reason before then, 10% CGT will be payable (for units held > 12 mths).

AustralianSuper also have another limit where you can only invest 80% of your total balance in shares so you will need to keep 20% in growth (or other option). Then as has been pointed out, they have a maximum of 50% of the 80% for NDQ. But they have plenty of other growth ETFs on offer if thats what you are after. Eg IVV, HYGG, VEU.

Not sure if your interpretation of the rules is entirely correct @boney35 - the 50% of 80% for NDQ - coz I've previous been with AustralianSuper and I'm now with CBUS, another industry super fund that has the same rules but a slightly smaller investable universe than AustralianSuper who have more ETFs and LICs on their "menu".

The 80% rule applies at the time you place a purchase order (a buy), but is not enforced between buys, and the individual position weighting rules - so 50% in the case of NDQ - do apply to your entire super balance, not just to the 80% you can invest in through their "Member Direct" option.

For example:

1. Bob has $500,000 in his AustralianSuper account (his withdrawal balance).
2. Bob can sign up for AS' Member Direct option and transfer $400 K into Member Direct (80% of the $500 K balance).
3. Bob can then invest $250 K (half of his $500 K balance) in NDQ.
4. Bob now has $150 K left in Member Direct that can be used to invest in ASX300 companies or any LICs or ETFs that are on AustralianSuper's "approved" list (their investment menu).

So Bob can't invest 50% of his super balance into NDQ AND invest the other 50% in something else, but he could invest 50% in NDQ and 30% in something else, as long as Bob leaves 20% in AS' managed strategies, such as High Growth, Conservative, etc.

The individual weighting limit rules (such as 50% for NDQ and 20% for ASX300 companies) are also only applied at the point of purchase, i.e. when you place a buy, and the position can grow as large as it likes after that.

But my understanding is that you could invest 50% in NDQ, just not 50% in something else at the same time, coz you'd only have 30% left in the Member Direct portion of your super.

This understanding is based on my own experience of being able to invest 20% of my entire balance in an ASX300 company, which I have done on multiple occasions.

100% correct @Bear77 . Thanks for clearing up my misunderstanding.

Thanks @Bear77 , @boney35, @Mujo, @Arizona, @Solvetheriddle

You’ve given me plenty to consider.

Much appreciated !!

Adding to @Mujo's point, any bet on the NASDAQ is a bet that the majors in the US will continue their dominance. I think any significant allocation upwards of 50% requires a good understanding of valuations for the top-10. This is my problem with it -- I like the NASDAQ (holder myself) but I wouldn't be comfortable taking a 100% bet, nor would I want to keep such a close eye on a specific set of companies in the US.

That said, I certainly wouldn't be tracking an Australian ETF for 100% either. I take a view similar to @Solvetheriddle only I prefer a larger weighting to the international side (75/25). The majority of my super is invested in the MSCI world index. I think this will reliably beat the ASX but also be a safer long term option requiring less work.

Things looked fairly normal in the world a couple of years or so after Nasdaq fell about 80% after March 2000. Not even a recession in Australia. Would not have felt so good seeing your super balance drop so much. Easy now to look back at the historical charts and say we could have stomached it easy and continue buying the dip of course! What's that saying - "sort of posts never seen near market bottoms" anyway. Admire your bravery if you do it though good luck!

Saw this on twitter that also shows a lot of that outperformance is multiple expansion not EPS growth.