Would love to hear anyones bear case for not changing my super from 100% Australian Super growth option to 100% NDQ ETF.

NDQ has averaged 13.56% for the last 15 years.

AusSuper growth option has averaged 8.72% over the same time.

I've got flexibility so will never have to retire during a dip, and frankly AusSuper tracks NDQ pretty closely, but just with higher ups and downs (volatility).

If I started doing this 15 years ago with $100000, the difference would have approx $325k ahead with NDQ.....

I'm 100% on my flexibility to never have to sell on a downturn.

Would really appreciate any thoughts fellas.

Be as hard on the idea as you can.

Oh, I'm 48.

Apologies for labelling it NDQ as this is a fund that is not listed on the ASX but is available in Australia (cant post without a company code and wasn't sure where else to post it)

This is a little left field, away from our usual small cap focus. I thought I would share a newsletter from Lakehouse Global Growth Fund that I get monthly. There is plenty of commentary on how to get global exposure. My preferences are an ETF by Betashares - NDQ, which has been good for me. I also like the Lakehouse fund - generally looking at big global companies that are growing relatively quickly. I figure these 2 give me pretty good exposure internationally while I concentrate on "my" market here.

LGGF-November-2023-Monthly-Letter.pdf

Nessy

disc - held (both NDQ and LGGF)

Up 25% for the past 12months and approaching all time highs....

Would love to know anyones thoughts.

No one knows the future but surely trees don't grow to the sky.

Added to my position near the 52w low. Could be more pain to come get in 2023, but good enough looking out a few years I reckon.

It is a good time to accumulate a core holding such as this, with the companies with the highest weighting being some of the strongest businesses the world has ever seen with no signs of structural deterioration. Slowly of course, given the bear market we are in can always take a turn for the worst.

I have been holding onto a lot of cash 30-40% of funds available to be allocated to the market, waiting for the market to turn back towards positive sentiment. I haven't purchased anymore NDQ since early 2020 as I have just been letting it run. Looks like the recent downtrend has potentially turned so buying in line with my dollar cost averaging strategy for ETFs with the momentum (ie. don't buy a downtrend) overlay. 

Charts show a decent point to buy either way given the channel in which the Nasdaq 100 has traditionally sat in between since 2009. Buying after reaching the bottom blue channel almost always goes on to higher points in a short amount of time whereas buying during a period in the higher blue zone normally results in lower returns over the short term (1-2 years) and therefore average return over the longer term. The assumption that could change and that needs to be kept in mind is that the Nasdaq may not continue to grow at the 17ish% yearly average return that it has generated for the last 10+ years.

Notes on charts below, log scale used, first chart is longer term and second is a 1-year chart.

Disclosure: My Strawman portfolio I tend to only hold individual companies rather than a reflection of my RL portfolio which holds at least 50% ETFs/managed investments. Also, I am absolutely no technical analysis guru!!! Just looking for the most basic and obvious trends from a chart. Happy to be corrected on the technicals!