Forum Topics AVR AVR Industry/competitors

Pinned straw:

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Aaronfzr
Added 12 months ago

Thanks @PabloEskyBruh for bringing this to the top of the deck.

I read the AGM slide deck with interest - this appears like a good prospect to follow! Possibly a takeover target for one of the bigger players...

The technology is very interesting, esp as they have multiple inter-related components / devices.

There are multiple structural tailwinds here - an increasing viability of TAVI in younger patients, and as the technology is better-accepted, widening indications for TAVI in all patients.

Just 10 years ago, these minimally-invasive transcatheter valve replacements were considered experimental and suitable for only very old or very unwell patients, for whom the risk of surgical valve replacement was considered too high. The use is increasing and is now a very accepted treatment for many patients. One reason they were limited to older patient's is that initially nobody knew how long they would last, and what to do if it failed or needed re-replacing.

The superior flow dynamics make this tech a good primary implant device, but also (apparently) very useful in what will soon be (in 2-10 years or so) a growing population of TAVI patients who need a re-do valve.

My first impression was that these Aussie upstarts couldnt possibly beat Medtronic, Abbott and Boston Scientific at their game. But I think there's a solid chance they will (and/or get bought up in the process)

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PabloEskyBruh
Added 12 months ago

Good points @Aaronfzr, if you are interested in more details on the valve-in-valve use case DurAVR poses there is some more details here: https://anteristech.com/news/update-on-duravr--thv-valve-in-valve-experience.html

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Jimmy
Added 12 months ago

I have to say @PabloEskyBruh your passion and undeniable knowledge of most things AVR have me on the verge of adding to my RL portfolio. (I'm holding only a few in my SM portfolio)

Looking forward to your further updates...

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PabloEskyBruh
Added 12 months ago

Thanks @Jimmy, I’ve long been bullish on Anteris, but for the most part — in recent years — it has been a case of just sitting back and seeing if the thesis actually plays out. It’s a bit rarer for me to have a time-sensitive sense of urgency, so I have been trying to follow the developments with the re-domicilisation closely.

I think it is a good story and — freshly told in the US with the funding specifically for the Pivtoal trial gained from the IPO itself — I feel there will be a captive audience soon. I’m anticipating in the months ahead there will be sell-side broker coverage and the consensus valuation is going to come up closer to the US industry norm. I think that may just be a gradual climb upwards on no news — more like information osmosis as US investors begin to find Anteris on their radar.

Actual inflection points will include FDA approval for the pivotal trial around mid-year.

There are still some low-ball options that will be in the money soon (including a stack around the $10 AUD mark), but these aren’t exchange tradable (or weren’t pre IPO and the scheme was all about 1:1 like for like transfer) so I don’t see it being a huge brake on price. I think they will ultimately assist Anteris’ capitalisation now but, something they never achieved in the past.

There is still a lot of noise and fog atm but so I’m seizing the opportunity on Strawman and IRL. I’m thinking of doing a few more posts on my perception of the TAVR industry in the US and the reasons why I think Anteris’ position is an enviable one. Envy for DurAVR is the cornerstone of my investment thesis.

All the best if you jump in too!

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PabloEskyBruh
Added 12 months ago

But also, there is still plenty I don’t know and no one can accurately predict anything right? Two years ago, for example, I wouldn’t have thought I needed to point out — when speaking of Anteris’ prospects — that there is a non-zero chance that this guy is the head of the FDA by mid 2025…

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Buyer Beware!

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