Forum Topics BIO BIO Trading Update

Pinned straw:

Last edited a month ago

And first out of the blocks in trading updates for 2025 from my portfolio is,...surprise, surprise,... $BIO.

ASX Announcement

  • Unaudited revenue of c. $4.6m vs. the forecast given in November of $4.5m
  • 1H FY25 is c. $8.9m, up 48.3% on pcp
  • Quarterly sales on an annual run rate of $18.4m


My Analysis

This kind of growth keeps them in line with the VIsion 2027 targets. While percentage growth is declining as it cycles a more material base (39.4% to pcp), quarterly sales adds have averaged $0.33m over the last 4 reports. Were this to continue through Q3 and Q4, that would put $BIO on a FY revenue of $19.1m, which is close to where I think they need to be to hit the mid-point of the Vision 2027 Targets.

So, an "on track" result.

The beat to recently issued guidance continues the pattern of what appears to be BVN putting out a guidance number that he is reasonably confident can be beaten. Doesn't mean that they won't get it wrong in future, and of course such misses are a good thing for anyone looking to accumulate.

If history is to be repeated, we should soon get an update with FY revenue guidance, which has been known to follow a few days after the Trading update rather than be incorporated into the 4C report which will come in a couple of weeks. Afterall, BVN does love his frequent updates!

(OK, back to the beach, as I'm not officially back on the case yet, but thought I'd post this straw over my morning coffee!)

Disc: Held in RL and SM

Arizona
Added a month ago

Well BVN is communicating and is doing what he said he'd do, or a bit better.

I can't really complain

Sales look good on a graph:


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Happy Beach to you @mikebrisy and all those beaching it up.

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Arizona
Added a month ago

Not enough for the market SP down by more than 4% @ around midday.

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UlladullaDave
Added a month ago

I think it's a bit of a case study in market psychology. BIO has telegraphed a lot over the last few months with various announcements and presentations. That will usually flush out a lot of incremental buyers – in BIO's case to the point that in the short/medium run without any meaningful upgrade to the 2027 trajectory everyone who wanted to buy shares likely has. And so the price falls. The price action also, imo, suggests there are quite a few weak hands sitting in the stock and it could be watch out below if BIO ever come up short for a quarter/half etc.

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mikebrisy
Added a month ago

@UlladullaDave, yes that makes sense to me. I think that’s a general problem with very promotional management . You get an unstable, retail register.

That’s not relevant to my thesis. I’m buying a business, and so don’t care what other shareholders do as long as the business performance remains on track.

The key I am looking for is how international revenues scale, so I think I have to give this one a couple of years to see.

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Arizona
Added 4 weeks ago

@UlladullaDave BIO down Circa 8% at midday today.

I wonder with the 2027 vision and reports indicating that all is on track, there will be little for the market to get excited about, unless as you say "Bio ever comes up short". It will be interesting to see if management do any buying at these levels and if FY revenue guidance turns up shortly as predicted by @mikebrisy.

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UlladullaDave
Added 4 weeks ago

Hi @Arizona Management are in a blackout period so they can't trade.


I question how much more guidance they need to give and how useful it is at this point. You can already see plenty of fatigue in the price action. The share price has fallen ~50% from where it got to a few months ago. Saying the same thing over and over again will produce diminishing returns for the reason I gave above: ie whoever wanted to buy on that information has already done so.

But if you have bought based on fundamentals, then it shouldn't matter what the market price is – worst thing you can do is buy on fundamentals and sell on technicals, or vice versa. If you bought because you chased momentum then you should have sold a while ago. It still looks wildly overpriced to me, but I'm a cheapskate.

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Arizona
Added 4 weeks ago

@UlladullaDave I wasn't across the blackout - so thank you

Being a Cheapskate is the only way to be.

A case study in Psychology, it is that. I have been focused elsewhere lately. I'll put some thought into my take on BIO.


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