Forum Topics 3DP 3DP [Enter word to describe Ian's

Pinned straw:

Last edited 2 months ago

3a9eed2f42bfb2b028e39e0059c496376b207a.png

Had an hour drive tonight and came across this podcast from late 2021 that I had saved.

I gave it a listen, and was absolute stunning the confidence and conviction he had in the business.

Not many kind words to describe it in hindsight, probably blatant pumping or lack of understanding of your own business.

Implore everyone to go listen to it, stunning.



At the time of the podcast business has AUD $4m Rev up 250% with a loss of AUD $1.5m

These are some notes and comments Ian said unprovoked about the 3DP, with a lot of conviction:

  • On track to USD $50m ACV then USD $100m ACV
  • When we hit those numbers (targets above) our share price will be "many multiples" of its current price
  • Plans to be Nasdaq listed in 2-3 years time
  • Recollected the share price peaks and troughs by month
  • Talks of the software being "very sticky" "annuity type revenue "


This is the best part, a direct quote from the 58 minute mark......

“That annuity income stream that’s very sticky, that grows, that’s high margin, when the market better understand our story and looks at some of the broker research that been done, they’ll understand this (business) is gonna be very very high revenue, high profit. We think (we will be) one of these perfect stories in a few years time that’s growing revenue, growing earnings buts also paying dividends because we will be generating a significant amount of cash and short of hiring more people to continue to grow the business there won’t be a lot to spend it on. "


Fast forward to 2024, AUD $6.4m in revenue which is down 12%, with a $5.2m loss and ACV is a now non existent metric, all the so called "annuity type revenue" has disappeared along with customers and revenue appears to be tied to CapEx projects, the business has had to raise capital multiple times, they are now an 'AI' company, the "USD $20m of ACV" which peaked in Nov 2022 is no where to be seen and cleary wasn't contracted well, major investor Bevan Slattery has left the cap table, and they went to court with Here Europe B.V over contractual issues, but Q1 was better with receipts of $3m w $300k of OCF so.....


Sorry to any holders, or previous holders.

Someone tell me what to think








thunderhead
Added 2 months ago

Investors don't do these kind of retrospectives often enough - these serve as great cautionary tales.

9
reddogaustin
Added 2 months ago

Great post, and great insights.

Something, something, hindsight, something, is the quote? Hahahah

What can we learn from such clarity?

Beware of toxic positivity in a CEO?

Always model number spruiked by CEOs? Plan the path and know when they are leaving it?

I still hold.

14

Wakem
Added 2 months ago

I truly believe there is a good business in there, i have used the platform and developed analytics for it as well.

It will not improve with Ian there unfortunately - I lost significant capital on Pointerra / Ava Risk / Alcidion , All of these company's have CEO's who overly hype their business and future prosperity, i now stand well clear of any company with a CEO i cannot trust or who does not have a history on delivering what they say. For this reason i wont invest in Ai Media.


When Ian is gone i will look at pointerra again ...



22

Rocketrod
Added 2 months ago

You may be right @Wakem with AI Media. Time will tell.

One thing Tony has done this year, unlike the leaders of Pointerra, Ava Risk & Alcidion, was to buy, on market, a significant (around $2M) of AI Media shares.

As @Strawman often says, "people sell shares for many reasons, but only buy for one"


Disc - IRL (Pointerra, Ava, Alcidion, AI Media)


20

Wakem
Added 2 months ago

Yes Ai media may be different ( i hope it is), though Ian has significant capital in pointerra and still destroyed value. My other worry with Ai media is the opportunity for one of the majors or anyone else for that matter to disrupt it - Microsoft teams captions calls now....


Does Ai media really have a sustainable moat ?

16

Wini
Added 2 months ago

@ballermania what a fascinating podcast! I bet there are a few of these from 2021 which have aged like milk...

A cautionary point on Ian/3DP, he is the Chairman of the recently de-listed GDA as they argued it was "significantly undervalued by the market". We can only speculate the parties behind the scenes who drove that decision, but fact is the Chair would be highly influential in any outcome. Looking at the current 3DP share price I would be nervous you could see a similar outcome there. That said, a quick glance at the register shows it may be a bit harder to get over the line.

33

occy
Added 2 months ago

As a GDA holder I'm certainly no fan of Ian for a few reasons so I wouldn't even examine 3DP as a potential investment. I'm fortunate that I only possessed a small holding in Good Drinks as I bought an insignificant parcel given Single Fin is my beer of choice. Being a consumer of one (actually a few honestly) gave me an interest in the company from that standpoint and while they made some solid bolt on acquisitions that complemented the business nicely, and they were growing albeit at a slowish pace, they are in a ultra competitive space against some multi-national corps in a shrinking market. The share price was in a gradual decline until they basically declared we are being de-listed and there is nothing you can do about it so the share price cratered, although it did bounce back slightly at the end as there was some internal buying. I feel bad for any investors who believed in the company and had significant sums of money tied up in them as there has basically been, hmm how would I describe it...absolutely no communication from the company since the "vote". I very much suspect that any holders who aren't in the circle will be agressively dicked down by management in some manner. Likely through dilution of more shares being issued over time.


Anyway sorry for the rant/hijacking of the 3DP thread. I am no fan of Ian personally. Wini mentioning GDA triggered me...lol

23