Hay @Xorbia , I feel some of your pain getting in around 13.5c as it dropped thinking there was value by that point. As it went much lower, I held due to a mix of it's such a low value it's hardly worth selling and there has to be some value if it starts to deliver on it's promise so I don't want to pull the pin at the bottom.

I think this ride up is temporary and it will drop again until it provides some traction by repeating or improving on the last 4C. If it can start delivering on it's promise then there is plenty of upside from here (not sure about 50c worth but I haven't gone that deep), but I am now in the no-man's land of being solidly down but needing to make a call if it's worth waiting to see further value. I really need to do a lot more homework on this, but expect it may be a few weeks before I can.

I hope you are more prepared than I currently am if the price continues to rise and it get's above the "so low, not worth selling" so you know what price you would sell at.

Hi Tom

You have said ..”I think this ride up is temporary and it will drop again until it provides some traction by repeating or improving on the last 4C. If it can start delivering on it's promise then there is plenty of upside from here (not sure about 50c worth but I haven't gone that deep), but I am now in the no-man's land of being solidly down but needing to make a call if it's worth waiting to see further value.”

It is not for me to give advice in terms of the said Company, but I would urge you to do some research before making that decision. Firstly, in many respects a 4c serves as an early indicator of what can be expected in the next set of Financials. The Half Year Financials are due within the next 4 weeks. Here we are likely to get excited about the turnaround in terms of Revenue, Gross Margin, Expenses, EBITDA, NPBT, NPAT, Customer Receipts and the Cash Balance, all of this versus the PCP ( Financials for H12024. We are talking some very significant % improvements across the Board.

That said, if you want some conviction, calculate the H2 FY2024 Financial result by simply deducting the H1 Result from the FY2024 result for each of the elements listed above. Then compare with this with the H1 FY 2024. This will confirm when the turnaround started.

So, why was the turnaround necessary. Pointerra’s High Revenue successes came in the USA Utilities space. Whilst the Company never declared the Revenue split for USA Utilities versus the 5 other Sectors, but I suspect this was approx 85 % USA Utilities 15% the other Verticals. Then came the Biden Inflation Reduction Act, set to serve as the largest tailwind for USA infrastructure in a generation. What followed was 2 years of inaction where the primary Utilities focus shifted to new Plans, Planning Approvals and positioning for Funding. Ian Olsen was left to report Program delay after Program delay. In H1 2024, he was forced to Pivot his attention to the other verticals, cutting the cost base after two Capital Raises. When you do your comparison of the H2 FY2024 vs H1 FY2024 Financials, you will see the fruits of this Pivot.

I can go on about other indicators in both the Q1 and Q2 FY2025 Quarterly reports, but if you accept that Cash receipts are the last leg of the Sales cycle and you accept that the Customer Receivables number reported in the Fy2024 Financial Report was far from material @ AUD 650k, then we can confidently say that the Revenue number for H12025 will exceed the Customer Receipts number in the the first half of 2025.

The numbers point to Pointerra posting a Financial Customer Revenue number for the six months which is greater than the entire FY2024 result. This achievement will filter through the Income Statement. Some talked of higher costs in the Q 1 4c. Any such commentary on the Platform costs, relates to spike in these costs from time to time. This can be attributed to higher Business activity but every now and then, Pointerra procure third party data on behalf of a Customer. They clearly Bill the Customer which shows up as Revenue but causes an outlier in that cost item. Reason the Gross Margin floats around a bit.

FY2025 will be an all time record year for Pointerra.

I urge you to crunch the numbers and build your conviction accordingly. Nothing worse than seeing someone contemplating an exit strategy at a time when we are nine months into a material turnaround. I personally believe the release of the H1 FY 2025 Financials will extend the recent re-rate and hopefully reinstate some investor interest / confidence.

RobW

Hi RobW,

I will be incorporating your points when I do a review of Pointerra and in general think they are all solid points. To clarify my view that the price will pull back again, I don't think it will go back to $0.05 or lower as I agree the 4C shows a lot of promise. However, Pointerra has shown promise before and the market has been disappointed, so I think it will need more evidence of sustained improvement before the price will go north from here - but this is my gut feel.

There are a lot of moving parts as you detail, the multiple business lines, impact of government policies and complexities around infrastructure funding on top of the fact it is a relatively new technology trying to find market acceptance. My experience both in the up (I made some money buying on the Beven spike) and down (my current holding) has told me that there are complexities that I will need to spend a lot more time understanding to feel comfortable with a value. However, it is more than likely that I will have to accept that this falls outside my circle of competency and despite upside potential my best path is to deploy the cash where I do feel I understand the risk/reward picture.

It looks like you have a solid investment thesis on Pointerra which is where I need to be. I will let you know once I work out where I stand and why.

Cheers

Unfortunately as a holder who has been on the roller coaster for a long time, I think I’m going to need to see a whole flock of swallows and be suffering a deep sunburn before I am fully convinced summer is here.

I do think the business is turning but if it can carry that momentum into a growing business is the next question.

It was last reported in the Q4FY24 4C.

Ian also referred to it in the Coffee Microcaps interview (14-11-24), where he indicated that it was still on hold, but still a live opportunity. They have given themselves a wide window with FY25, so we will see over the next few months.

@Bradbury thanks for the info. Also thanks @RobWfor your numbers. I definitely want this company to be a winner, as the tech they have really should be extremely useful to a lot of different companies. I'm almost convinced to buy back in, but like @Bradbury I think I'll wait a bit longer before I jump back on board. (But I'm definitely not sour on anything --- I made a fair bit on them when they ran up to 70c a few years ago, so I always have a soft spot for Pointerra!)