Forum Topics DUR DUR DUR valuation

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Strawman
Added 11 months ago

Great post @Rick

I'll try and see if i can get the CEO back for another interview.

Also, shoutout to @Karmast who I believe first pitched Duratec a couple years ago.

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Rick
Added 11 months ago

Teamwork at its best! :) Yes @Strawman it would be great to get an update from the CEO!

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mikebrisy
Added 11 months ago

@Rick @Strawman @Karmast @Bear77 @Shapeshifter I agree, the SM discussion and analysis around $DUR spurred me to to do my own work on this, and the fact-based discussion/straws really gave me the confidence I needed to put some decent capital behind it, when it was out of favour with the market.

From an idea to a 65% return, in an elapsed time of 9 months. And it only spent about a month or so on my watch list.

But what was gold for me what that, in doing my sector research, another name kept popping up very favourably in my analysis. $LYL. And when I read back on the large body of work by @Bear77 stretching back over several years, I realised that here was another opportunity sitting nicely for the taking.

Both are examples of opportunities to buy good companies at a fair price - take your time. A good idea today might not be priced to deliver an attractive investment return today, but who knows you might get an opportunity in 6 months, 9 months, 2 years.

At this week's SM meeting I heard @Strawman welcome new members, so the reflection I'd like to share is that there is a lot of gold on this forum (and, no, I'm not talking about your gold sector reports @Bear77 - which is probably your only content I never read, unless I'm really bored :-) ).

And while I never take another member's analysis, advocacy, or recommendation at face value and act on it, there are so many instance now where it accelerates my own research and investment decision process.

Hard to put a value on that, but it's a lot!

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Shapeshifter
Added 11 months ago

@mikebrisy hopefully there should be more good news for Duratec just around the corner as the Duratec Ertech Joint Venture (DEJV) has recently submitted tenders exceeding $450 million for potential works on Garden Island, Western Australia. These projects have been offered as ECI Head Contracts, with the ECI packages expected to be awarded separately in the first quarter of FY25, and project construction contract awards anticipated 6-9 months after the ECI award.

Possibly the market (and maybe some insiders!) are factoring in a win of this tender which would be a big deal for Duratec.




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Karmast
Added 11 months ago

Thanks for the update @Rick and well done all for your contributions to date.

I have Duratec still offering good value up to $2.00 right now. That's based on my expectations of about 11c of EPS this year, growth of 17% p.a. for the next 5 years and a PE of around 14 which is the bottom third of where it averages. The growth number is the biggest variable as always but with the significant upside from the HMAS Stirling work in WA, 17% p.a. is about half of their growth rate over the past decade and feels like enough of a margin of safety to me for now.

I am a significant shareholder and it's become my biggest holding IRL. I have tried to get in touch with the CEO and Investor Relations for a while. They weren't very responsive at first but I have made contact recently and hope to convince them to give their smaller shareholders more access than they have been. About 50% of the shares are still held by insiders and only 2% by fundies, so I do hope they will prioritise their many retail shareholders more moving forward.

So, on that note @Strawman hopefully newish CEO Chris Oates will do an interview with you, as last time we had the now retired CEO Phil Harcourt (who stayed on as Board member). Fingers crossed.

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