Forum Topics CGS CGS H1 FY25 results

Pinned straw:

Last edited 2 months ago

Well Cogstate (CGS) delivered on a pretty decent 1H if you ask me. Here's a quick rundown.

Key Highlights:

  • Record Revenue: $23.9 million, up 19% compared to the previous corresponding period (PCP).
  • New Sales Contracts: $20.3 million executed, up 147% on PCP.
  • Future Contracted Revenue Backlog: $99.1 million at 31 December 2024.
  • EBIT: $4.8 million, up 167% on PCP.
  • Cash Balance: $34.2 million at 31 December 2024.

Segment Results:

  • Clinical Trials: Revenue up 27% to $22.7 million, gross margin improved to 61%.
  • Healthcare: Revenue down 44% to $1.2 million, gross margin remained at 77%.


Outlook for 2H25:

  • Consistent Revenue: Expected to be consistent with 1H25.
  • Margins: No significant changes planned, so margins should remain consistent.
  • Operating Cash Flow: Expected to be consistent with 1H25, excluding additional tax payment


All in all, fairly in line with what they advised in late January, which does place them on a PE of roughly 17-18x at current SP at opening today. Market appears to like it with them up about 11% at time of writing.

Looks like they've returned/returning(?) to growth, which should be commenced given they amended their contract with Eisai back in April of last year, which allowed them to pursue more opportunities outside of this partnership.

Big fan of CGS and the Management Team here, haven't taken a thorough look at them for a while, but will on the back of these results and with hopefully more positive news to come after full year release.

Held.

Noddy74
Added 2 months ago

I'll sell you the rest of my shares if you want @Seymourbutts

I thought the financials themselves were fine and they're doing a good job on gross margins and opex control. But there were a few things that have me leaning towards a sell:

  • It's the fourth consecutive half future revenue contracts (the pipeline) has reduced - albeit only marginally from six months ago. Contracted revenue is down 47% from the peak two years ago. The 'renegotiation' of the Eisei healthcare deal accounts for a chunk of that but future clinical trials revenue has been down for the past four halves also.
  • They dropped their slides around Alzheimers trials. Maybe there's nothing nefarious in it and just reflects their desire to diversify revenue. But they are significantly leveraged to Alzheimers and if that market is looking less rosy, so too are their future prospects.
  • I thought Brad was flat. That's a completely subjective view but I got the impression he wanted to be anywhere else. The slides, the Q&A - it all felt a lot more focused on the short-term outlook than I'm used to with this mob.
  • No dividend? They have $44 million of equity and $34 million of that is cash with no debt. That's a lazy balance sheet. They just delivered a $4 million profit for the half (slightly higher FCF) and are forecasting similar in 2H. If they're not returning the cash are they planning M&A or do they need a buffer to get through a tough period? I don't particularly like the idea of either.


Over the next six months I think they'll be fine. Their outlook that 2H should look similar to 1H looks very doable and that should deliver a record annual result at the top and bottom line. It's FY26 onwards I'm less sure of. I still like many aspects of this company, but with this morning's pop I took the opportunity to sell most of my holding. I could be wrong though and if I am I hope to get the chance to buy back in.

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