Forum Topics HSN HSN HSN 1HFY25 Results

Pinned straw:

Added 9 months ago

Discl: Held IRL and in SM

SUMMARY

Weak result is not great, BUT signs are that this is temporary and will recover in 2HFY25. No thesis breaking concerns.

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NOTES

Weak 1H result, driven primarily by (1) lower license fees v strong 1HFY24 license renewals which only renew in 3-7 year cycles (2) upgrade delays which shift revenue into 2HFY25 (3) continued powercloud investment.

New wins in 1HFY25 include City of Kingsport water billing modernisation, A Entelios expansion into Denmark, expansion of relationship with Vattenfall and Stockholm Energi.

2HFY25 revenue and margins looking to be significantly stronger to compensate, due to:

  • New logo implementations
  • Customer upgrades deferred from 1HFY25
  • Deals done in 1HFY25 above
  • Impact of VMO2 deal signed in Feb - VMO2 wanted term licenses to capitalise, not SAAS, expect to recognise $10m/yr less 5year license fee


FY25 guidance reaffirmed, Jan 2025 YTD results provide reasonable confidence that this can be met:

  • Operating Revenue increased $52.0m in Jan to $230.0m
  • Underlying EBITDA increased $29.1m in Jan to $67.2m
  • Fx impact YTD immaterial and primarily incurs costs in the same countries where it generates revenue


Customer churn continue to be consistently low

Both Energy & Utilities verticals are well positioned for currently ongoing rapid industry transformation 

Powercloud integration and turnaround going well:

  • Continued significant investment in core product Retail Core Service system, due to be released in June
  • $13m invested to restructure business a ‘wholesale change to business’, reduce its fixed cost base and implement Hansen systems and Processes - powercloud is back to prospecting
  • Rationalised workforce from 390 to 140, hired new local management, reduced fixed costs by $31m annually
  • Cash generative, expected to deliver positive Underlying EBITDA for FY25, as was guided during acquisition
  • Revenue growth anticipated from FY26 from German roll-out of smart meters, only recently commencing
  • Updates on powercloud will scale back from hereon, in line with practice from previous acquisitions


Small acquisition of a $2.2m 30% stake in Dial AI, based in Canada - AI-powered tool designed to enhance automated customer interactions (sounds like a Whispir-like solution) - this makes sense to add into the Customer Care suite. Focused on energy & utilities, but can be applied to Telco’s

5c interim dividend, partially franked to 3.3c

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edgescape
Added 9 months ago

@jcmleng

Thanks for the thoughts and admire your conviction on Hansen

That's despite not seeing a recording or demo of Powercloud in action, with Hansen refusing to post any live demo from the Eworld 2025 conference in Germany (did you ever get around why Hansen can't be bothered to post product demos or documentation on Powercloud?). Investing in Powercloud seems like playing one of those strategy games where you have to figure out the rulebook yourself.

I also think the shock victory of Merz at the German election and the rise of the Far-Right will be interesting as it makes forming a powerful coalition hard and makes the case for renewables and hence smart meters more "open ended" (I wouldn't say uncertain at this stage).

I'm surprised the share price has held up on the report. I guess 50x earnings is reasonable on single digit revenue growth.

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jcmleng
Added 9 months ago

@edgescape , from an investment perspective, at this point, I have no cause for concern on powercloud as:

  • The level of disclosure on (1) the technical solution (none) and (2) post acquisition performance (none) and (3) expected future contribution from the acquisition (none) is completely consistent with how HSN announces, updates and then stops the updates on ALL of its prior acquisitions. 
  • HSN has delivered the 3 things it told the market it would do - (1) investment spend (showing up in 1HFY25 numbers) (2) stripping out costs (mostly done) and (3) EPS accretive - it is reported that they are now.
  • The powercloud acquisition was (A$49.0m) compared to Enoro (A$96.0m) and Sigma Systems (A$166.2m) - other than not being EPS accretive from day 1 and the need for some investment, from a corporate risk perspective, it really is only a medium-sized acquisition, is relatively standalone as a German operation, and is not in itself, large or significant enough to change the shape/trajectory of HSN or alter its corporate risk profile - I don’t see it as warranting any special attention, more so when management has mostly addressed market concerns on the acquisition
  • HSN announcements, particularly in the past 3-5 years, do not always indicate which solution is being deployed with each new contract, so trying to extrapolate the “success” of an acquisition by contract, is a futile exercise - I tried but got nowhere.
  • HSN’s track record in integrating acquisitions has been a good one - there is nothing to suggest powercloud will be any different.
  • I see HSN's competitive equation to be “HSN Suite, including powercloud” vs the competition, as this is how I think HSN goes to market. I do not see it being a “powercloud vs competition” issue at all. 


I think the market’s response (so far anyway) and my reaction to the results is that:

  • While the 1HFY2025 headline numbers don’t look great, my read of it is that there are a lot of timing-related issues with license revenue, which is mostly driven by customer demands for up front licenses vs a SAAS deal, I see this as simply accounting issues - at the end of the day, the revenue will be booked, and the cash will be received. The one learning from this result is that license revenue is lumpier than initially thought
  • Then there are delays with customer upgrades into 2HFY25 - I get why this has to happen as a customer, the work is inevitable/imminent rather than an “if”
  • Jan’s results give confidence that full-year guidance can be met
  • Powercloud has turned around slightly quicker than anticipated
  • They continue to win contracts, including the giant VMO2 deal, which now must be implemented.


I thus did not see any thesis breaking issues, either with powercloud or with the 1HFY2025 results, requiring action to be taken, and so I remain invested. 

Only time will tell whether my ongoing conviction is/was a good or foolhardy one!

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edgescape
Added 9 months ago

@jcmleng I agree they addressed the profit concerns on the acquisition. However it is easy to cut costs and headcount. But I can't see where the double digit revenue growth comes from when I don't know much about the product and strategy other than rolling out compliance. I would still press Hansen on uploading more product demos or guides if I was and investor.

I think people are buying Hansen because it is just a cheaper version of Gentrack

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