Forum Topics SGI SGI Exclusive Distribution Rights

Pinned straw:

Added 2 months ago

After the strong H1 results on Tue, yesterday there was some more good news for Stealth and another share price pop. Stealth has announced exclusive distribution rights for three brands of power tools.

https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20250227/pdf/06g1hbnlfr26vv.pdf

I don't have insight into how strong these brands are. Can anyone with more industry experience comment? I was aware of CAT for their heavy industrial machines, but wasn't aware of their power tools. I hadn't heard of Wesco or Harden. But Mike seems excited, describing this as a "game changer".

At the results presentation this week I asked a question about the $60m supplier pipeline revenue that Mike has previously indicated Stealth can tap into. He had gone quiet on this opportunity, and didn't answer my question on Tue. But I now assume this announcement is part of this capture. It's $30m instead of $60m. But nevertheless, a significant achievement for Stealth, and maybe (or not) the other $30m is still on the table with ongoing negotiations.

UlladullaDave
Added 2 months ago

I don't have insight into how strong these brands are. Can anyone with more industry experience comment?

The brands are virtually non-existent in Australia. Tradies basically pick one of Makita, DeWalt or Milwaukee (the big issue is battery compatibility – batteries are expensive and heavy and within brands you can swap batteries around to whatever tool you happen to be using). The CAT products look like they are targeting the DIY crowd.

The CAT tool brand is only a few years old. It's anyone's guess how SGI came up with their $30m revenue goal/target.

25
mikebrisy
Added 2 months ago

@DrPete like you, I've heard of CAT, but that's because the company has purposefully leveraged its brand value of ruggedness and durability into adjacent categories via licencing deals. The others I haven't heard of. Fortunately, one of my BA's (ChatGPT) is pretty clued up and this is the brief report they gave me a moment ago.

Cat Power Tools: Caterpillar (Cat) is renowned for its heavy machinery, but its venture into power tools is relatively recent. These tools are manufactured by the Positec Tool Corporation, which also produces brands like Worx and Rockwell. This shared manufacturing origin has led to discussions about the uniqueness of Cat tools compared to other Positec brands. Some users have expressed skepticism, suggesting that Cat's power tools might be rebranded versions of existing products. For instance, discussions on Reddit highlight that while Cat tools are available, brands like Makita are more established and widely recognized in the power tool market.

Wesco Power Tools: Wesco is another brand under the Positec umbrella, primarily targeting budget-conscious consumers. User reviews on platforms like Amazon indicate that Wesco tools are suitable for light to moderate tasks and offer good value for their price. However, some users have noted concerns regarding the longevity and robustness of these tools, especially under heavy-duty use. For occasional household projects, Wesco tools might suffice, but professionals might seek more durable options.

Harden Hand Tools: Harden offers a range of hand tools, including rubber mallets and screwdriver sets. According to ReviewMeta, two Harden products—the 16oz. Rubber Mallet with Fiberglass Handle and the Professional Precision 9pc Screwdriver Set—have received positive feedback, each holding a 5.0 average rating based on a limited number of reviews. On Amazon, the Edward Tools Harden 18 Piece Heavy Duty Tool Set has an average rating of 4.5 out of 5 stars from 215 global ratings, with users appreciating its sturdiness and value for money. While these reviews are favorable, the sample size is relatively small, making it challenging to comprehensively assess the brand's overall quality and reliability. Additionally, discussions on platforms like Reddit highlight concerns about the durability of budget-friendly tools, noting that cheaper tools may use lower-quality materials and manufacturing processes, potentially leading to reduced longevity and performance.

Looks like my BA doesn't know that much about Wesco or Harden, either.

My take on the deals is mildly positive. They (presumably) build out the range of offering in tools for $SGI's customers, and the exclusivity will have some value, but the hand power tools market is a mature and competitive market, with established brands in each market segment. So a more objective press release (which we shouldn't expect from $SGI) would perhaps be a bit more toned down.

24

UlladullaDave
Added 2 months ago

Positec Tool Corporation, which also produces brands like Worx and Rockwell

Worx and Rockwell are very much consumer brands. They don't have the motors in them for day in day out use. If Positec are just putting a CAT skin on the same product as those then yeah I think it's safe to assume they are targeting the DIY crowd.

17
Tom73
Added 2 months ago

Hi @DrPete , I had assumed the 30m announcement was on top of the 60m Loyalty rewards program sales opportunity. But maybe I am getting it mixed up, it hasn't exactly been spelt out or clear from communications, probably deliberately.

13

mikebrisy
Added 2 months ago

@Tom73 @DrPete I'd be careful about going 1+1=2. Here's why.

$60m incremental revenue entered the conversation a couple of years ago, when Mike said that they could increase revenue by around (at the time it was) c. 50% simply by providing some $60m of sales that existing customers were buying from elsewhere. While I don't recall the detail, Mike either gave the impression or explicitly indicated that this opportunity would be captured quite quickly. (Perhaps it was mooted in 2022 as being doable in 2025? It will all be back in the Straws somewhere.)

For a while, Mike then went quiete for a bit, but last year he's come back to referring to the $60m, I imagine because investors (including me!) have be asking "How's the $60m going?"

OK, that's the background to $60m.

So the about-to-be-launched Loyalty Rewards Program is an initiative to help access $60m incremental sales from existing customers. However, a key way of accessing the $60m incremental sales is by expanding the catalogue avaiable to those customers. The deal announced yesterday is part of enhancing the offer to existing customers, giving them more to be loyal about!

So, unfortunately, my take on the maths is: $60m + $30m = $60m.

What the deal does is that it incrementally improves the chances of success to achieving the $60m.

Rightly or wrongly, that's how I'm assessing it. I see it as BAU and the kind of thing I am assuming $SGI is doing as part of delivering their targets to 2028. It is not an upgrade of any kind, but it perhaps can give some confidence that they will be successful through differentiating their customer offer.

25

Tom73
Added 2 months ago

Thanks @mikebrisy you have summed up the fog around the 60m nicely and when I review in detail I will see if I can add anything. My initial take was that this "new" 30m was just part of the puzzle of how to get to 300m, not on top of. It may also be part of the 60m and as @UlladullaDave and you point out, the 30m by 2028 for these 3 new brands may be aspirational.

Either way, the deal is likely to help SGI, but I don't expect to up my view on value because of it, maybe feel a bit more confident they will reach the 212m by FY28 I have in my base valuation.

Cheers

13

UlladullaDave
Added 2 months ago

Actually your post got me thinking the "sales forecast" is based on what looks like a take or pay clause in the exclusivity agreement. Am I reading this correctly that SGI will in FY28 will have to take a ~$18m/year in stock as part of the contract?


4c6f8ccd092c82e14b095d6fd5dd2369269953.png

13