Am I calculating it right that all the Copay's they pay will be showing up as quarterly expenses? There would be about $1.35m AUD working on a $300US copay for each patient. + $3.4m new product,

So burnt about $15.2m in operating costs, hard to tell if the digital testing added any cost but hopefully next quarter gives an idea of full operating costs with the 6 new sales reps and some digital action.

@Schwerms I thought that copayments for pharma sales in the US are typically accounted for in the revenue line, so that when $BOT refers to net revenues, then this is after the deduction of the copayment and any other concessions made in agreements with payors (including Medicare, Medicaid, VAH etc.)

I checked this out on AI, which confirmed that under IFRS, a copayment is a form of “price concession” or “variable consideration” and is therefore netted off revenue.

I’m writing this not having read yesterday’s 4C yet, so maybe you are ahead of me.

AI went on to tell me that there are exceptions. For example, if the copayment is tied to a marketing program and not a specific transaction, in which case it can be treated as an expense. However, it seems to me that the copayment is very much tied to the script. But maybe $BOT offer the copayment for fulfilment through the platform, which could be argued to be a marketing inducement. Not sure about that.

Maybe one to add to Slido for Matt?

@mikebrisy I only think this because in the revenue they reported in the cap raise, the $ numbers matched to full rate revenue, not the $450USD to AUD net they keep talking.

Take March for example, $3,26m Revenue,

Assmuming total users, 1099 + 1868 --> 2967 Total (small number for Jan that aren't listed)

Revenue per person $1,098

Gross US Pricing Assuming $750, convert to AUD - $1,153 / person.

Close to the number above, it got my attention when it specified monthly gross revenue.

Or alternatively if you were looking to expect $450USD Net per person or $692 AUD, it should be 4,711 patients cumulative in March based on the reported numbers

For this reason I think the copay is appearing as an expense in the 4C as we are recognising the full amount of revenue, we would be recognising a full $750 USD if the patients were paying the copay but we are paying it up front.

Because of this we look to not have a cash flow positive month until September as I think there is a 60day worst case lag in the receivables from the insurance companies.

Good to see your finger is in the pulse Tom

I suspect this is the Feb Euroz conference updated to March, I don't know why we didn't get it in Feb.

Interesting that sales are *on target*

What is the target though? I don't think they have given any sales goals, the only published targets are those tranches for their share rewards and the top one is 250m sales in a single FY.

Good to see they have said the digital rollout is happening I was starting to think it might be another line in the gantt chart that is delayed. *They have said it is happening.

Long wait for the quarterly report end of April.

At what point is it market sensitive information for script numbers if they are killing it with the launch vs the E&P / Euroz analyst estimates.

@Tom73 As @Schwerms says this may be related to a Euroz Hartley event hat has already happened?

I note that its labeled March in the left hand bottom corner and January in the top right.

A little confusing

Euroz Hartleys

Buyer Beware. They raise for sophs and friends who then take a quick profit..

@edgescape excellent point.

@Tom73 @Schwerms @Arizona the reference to being “on track” is an internal reference.

All companies have budgets and plans. So, for example, in allocating sales reps they will have an internal sale plan as to the revenue they think this will generate in year 1. These internal targets have practical internal uses, such as linking to staff incentives.

As investors we only sometimes get to see the targets.

But for management to write down that they are “on track” and for the Board to approve such a communication does mean something, even if it is frustrating to us as investors that we don’t know what!

I have a sneaking suspicion that the internal targets are likely close to the EH assumptions. That’s because EH are the house IB, and they will have based their models on their discussions with management. So even though (as I’ve written for other companies) management might not have explicitly told EH what the targets are, they could have developed them by saying “would we be giving an unrealistic expectation is we assumed year 1 sales were X?”

EH are clearly fixated on holding the SP up. There can be no other reason for the short note they issued a few days ago which basically said “Share price has dropped. There is no reason for the SP to have dropped. Don’t worry. Our TP is still $0.55.”

Which struck me as pointless and desperate.

We just have to wait for the April trading update, and I wonder what - if any guidance - management will give. Personally, I’d rather they didn’t give guidance too early because 1Q will represent only a partial quarter of sales, so the error bars on any forecasts will be huge. I’d much rather form my own view as the quarterly numbers come in. We’ll need 2 quarters of data to even begin to get a reasonable view of the trajectory, and even that will be highly uncertain, other than ruling out whether the product has bombed.

Which brings me back to the statement “prescription volume growth on track”. If it had bombed, they wouldn’t be able to make the statements on slide 15.

Patience. Patience.

Disc: Held in RL and SM

Good points Mike, any sales jobs I have done in the past the sales budgets aren't usually on the conservative side so hopefully they set semi aggressive targets for themselves.. not a bar so low they can trip over it and claim victory

It's been a pretty big pull back, chance to get some more though on the cheap though. It hurts to look at it at the moment...

Re the lack of news I would have thought an announcement that the full digital campaign is commencing would have been warranted (hope they aren't late with that as well like the other parts of the rollout) ..