Energy One Limited

ASX:EOL

Energy One Limited

ASX:EOL
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$17.00 (+3.1%)
Last close price
#8
Rank
30
Held by
72
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Reports (8) My Report Forum Investors
Forum Topics EOL EOL Register movements

Pinned straw:
Solvetheriddle
Added 9 months ago

Well, the answer is out. Obviously, the EOL SP has gone up a lot since the result, but the question has been who is buying and selling? The result was fine, and the outstanding feature, IMO, was the guidance of ongoing strong growth as opposed to actual strong growth. Positive, but justifying a climb from $4 to $11?

Well the share register changes are out with Vaughan Busby, a seller, and the Wilson group (Geoff that is) as buyers.

As a s/h and with now a meaningful position I must admit to being a bit unsettled by this. of course we could say VB is now feeling disenfranchised after the t/o episode, but he also knows the business very well. as to WAM/WAX etc make your own assessment.

im a profit taker until more evidence emerges of sustainable growth, i find the industry still a bit opaque, although i like the story. so will maintain a holding.

could be wrong as always
Slomo
Added 9 months ago

I think the guidance that got the market excited was threefold.

First, they plan to pay down debt within a couple of years out of FCF.

Second, The second half will be stronger - after an already very good H1 implying FY25 will be a breakout year with M&A issues, restructure costs, cyber & ISO costs, etc behind them or fading fast.

Third, they plan to grow Revenue 15-20%p.a. while costs only grow at half that pace over the next 3 years.

This all means a few things to me. No need for a cap raise to reduce debt from past M&A. Operating Leverage is starting to show through, inflection point is approaching if not already passed, margins should expand meaningfully so that a share price of $11 today implies a PE of 16.1x in FY28.

All that said, guidance is one thing and execution is another.

Point taken @Solvetheriddle that the register is changing... I read this as getting less founder and more flipper.

Disc: Held

31
RogueTrader
Added 9 months ago

Claude Walker wrote a good article on EOL recently: "Energy One shares have performed strongly over the last 10 years, and I am optimistic that shares will continue to perform well over the next 10 years, because the company generates sticky, largely recurring revenue, it is run by honest and competent leaders, and it has plenty of room to grow."

https://arichlife.com.au/is-this-hidden-gem-still-flying-under-the-radar/

and DMX Capital is still keen: "EOL reported a much-improved underlying NPAT of $3.9m. It comes after a couple of messy years where the company has been building out its 24×7 operating centre, dealing with a cyber attack, endured wage inflation, and reorganizing senior management. ARR increased 18% driven by the strong sector tailwinds in renewable energy in Europe. Excitingly, management expect 15-20% ARR growth going forward and 50% of new ARR to drop to EBITDA, setting the company up for rapid EPS growth and 30% cash EBITDA margins.  To quote CEO, Shaun Ankers, EOL now have ‘clear air’."

https://dmxam.com.au/dmxcp/mar2025-monthly-report/

29
edgescape
Added 9 months ago

Hmmmm.

I hate to say it @Solvetheriddle but I take a more neutral stance

One example is the Telix CEO Christian sold his holding to instos at $9 more than 2 years ago. Since then the share price has more than doubled.

So it isn't necessarily a bad thing. But then I can be wrong too and I haven't found any similar example where price has fallen on something similar unless anyone here knows

On the other hand if it was sold to the market in general that would be slightly negative.

I'm still holding but I guess I can sell this now and buy back my Capricorn gold resources shares that I sold earlier to switch to EOL? I bet the gold bugs here would love that ;)

16
RogueTrader
Added 8 months ago

EOL has continued to power ahead since it was last discussed here (closed at $13.48 yesterday.) A new article on Livewire discusses some of the fundies involved and their thoughts, "up to $15-$20 in the medium term" say Ben Richards of Seneca, as well as the possibility of ASX 300 inclusion, which would probably require a lot more liquidity.

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/forget-pro-medicus-this-software-stock-is-emerging-as-a-future-fundie-favourite

18