Forum Topics EOL EOL Industry/competitors

Pinned straw:

Added 3 months ago

Article from the AFR

https://www.afr.com/street-talk/software-player-energy-one-subs-in-lazard-australia-on-defence-20250421-p5lt73

Behind paywall. I'm assuming the article is about setting up some sort of defence from takeover.

[held]

Bear77
Added 3 months ago

Street Talk (AFR):

Software player Energy One subs in Lazard Australia on defence

by Sarah ThompsonKanika Sood and Emma Rapaport, AFR, Apr 21, 2025 – 5.16pm

Wilson Asset Management crossed the substantial shareholder threshold in Energy One last week, but it’s not the only outfit getting up to speed on the ASX-listed energy software business.

Street Talk understands Energy One, which services wholesale electricity market players in Europe and Australia, has freshened up its defence strategy and appointed Lazard Australia as house adviser.

The board had Rothschild & Co by its side as recently as September 2023 as it weighed – and ultimately knocked back – a non-binding proposal from California-based private equity firm STG Partners at $5.85 per share.

With Energy One’s shares now trading at $11.32, a 71 per cent jump this year, this column would be surprised if private equity is still around the hoop. Roughly $11 per share plus a premium is expensive in anyone’s book. Still, there may be a precedent for Energy One investors to remain bullish, given The Riverside Company’s enviable exit at rival Energy Exemplar.

Energy Exemplar sells simulation software to grid operators, power utilities and renewable energy generators. Riverside came knocking in 2017 when Adelaide-based scientist Glenn Drayton had built the business into a $20 million operation. Eight years later, the private equity firm sold out to Blackstone and Vista Equity Partners in a $1.6 billion-plus deal.

A notice lodged on Tuesday showed three of Wilson Asset Management’s funds – Microcap, Capital and Research – had bought into Energy One with a 6.51 per cent holding, snapping up shares belonging to founder Vaughan Busby.

Portfolio manager Tobias Yao told this column he likes technology companies with mission-critical software and chunky market positions. He also thinks the company has an opportunity to win more software contracts in Europe, describing it as a “major opportunity”, and likes that the board and management are major shareholders.

Energy One’s other substantial shareholders include Busby, director Ian Ferrier, founder of iconic firm Ferrier Hodgson and former chairman of Goodman Group, and US-based hedge fund manager Briarwood Chase Management via its Asia-based fund. The $350 million market cap company was added to the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Index in March.

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Source: https://www.afr.com/street-talk/software-player-energy-one-subs-in-lazard-australia-on-defence-20250421-p5lt73

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Mujo
Added 3 months ago

Seems unlikely given the share price run up - i mean they had years to make a bid at half the price.

14

edgescape
Added 3 months ago

@Bear77 Thanks for sharing the full article. It is just as I suspected. No possibility of takeover but in more details.

Hate for that to happen as I like to see the growth translate in my holdings.

14

RogueTrader
Added 2 months ago

A good analysis of EOL in TAMIM's latest fund report:

Energy One ticks all the fundamental boxes sought by discerning investors:

• Founder-led leadership with strong alignment to shareholders

• Profitable and growing with high recurring revenue visibility

• Robust balance sheet and scalable business model

• Positioned at the nexus of the global energy transition In a sector characterised by disruption and rapid change, Energy One offers a rare combination of technological edge, operational excellence, and strong secular tailwinds.

more here: TAMIM_Australia_All_Cap_April_2025.pdf

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Solvetheriddle
Added 2 months ago

Being a LT holder of EOL, i am a little bemused by all the sudden attention of FM's. I can't tell whether it is the SP performance that has attracted them, so pulls in the Momentum guys, or that their buying has pushed the SP up so now they start pushing the story. either way, being a valuation-based investor, i get more cautious as the SP goes a lot higher without earnings to back it up. I'm also not standing in the way of the wave of buying. Because valuation is a much lower factor in SP outcomes over the ST/MT, especially these days, at some point it will count, maybe at a much higher SP than in the old days. lets watch how the numbers pan out

i suppose what i am trying to say is i get much more excited at earnings growth than SP growth.

29

RogueTrader
Added 2 months ago

Re attention from FM's for EOL, I know that the Seneca boys have been heavily spruiking it for about a year or so (on Ausbiz, Livewire, Youtube etc.) DMX and Claude Walker have also publicly praised it, and I see the sp hasn't looked back since Wini and the Strawman said lots of nice things about it on 'The Call' August 16 last year: the call: Friday August 16th on ausbiz

(The sp was $4.39 that day btw, $13.78 now.) So obviously on the radar of a few microcap managers, and I noticed that Wilson's picked up a coupla million shares last month as well.


25

Solvetheriddle
Added 2 months ago

As an aside, you might think these Fm have, by coincidence, all arrived at the story independently. They haven't. The brokers enable an information network that transfers activity across FMs, so they are all interested and can find out what others are up to. The result is herding that suddenly moves SP a lot. especially when the SP starts to move it initiates action. in reality, all this does is front-load returns in a stock, imo. no big deal that's just the way the market operates; however, should be aware of it.

what caught my eye on Tamin was the below....... usury imo....the make Ron rich scheme

5e57f940ae5dfca8bfdb184d033cdd15203744.png

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Wini
Added 2 months ago

@RogueTrader a smart person would go and buy the stock after viewing it so highly, but alas I am not a smart man...

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mikebrisy
Added 2 months ago

@Solvetheriddle LOL ... hurdle = cash rate with a floor!

Not a hurdle IMHO. No thanks.

19

OxyBBear
Added 2 months ago

@Solvetheriddle That hurdle rate is ridiculously low imo! There should be a high watermark as well.

19

Mujo
Added 2 months ago

Ron definetly has some questionable ethics, and the fee is ridiculous. His fund has actually performed quite well after fees over the long term though. Not sure what the FUM is though

14

RogueTrader
Added a month ago

Another interesting article from Guy Carson, this time discussing EOL, SRG, AHC, RTH, GTK, MCE and MYG: https://taurangainvestments.substack.com/p/may-2025-update

18

RogueTrader
Added a month ago

Tamim also published some interesting analysis on EOL recently, saying "If the company achieves these milestones, we assess an intrinsic valuation of over $20.00 per share is realistic."

"Energy One ticks all the fundamental boxes sought by discerning investors:

  • Founder-led leadership with strong alignment to shareholders
  • Profitable and growing with high recurring revenue visibility
  • Robust balance sheet and scalable business model
  • Positioned at the nexus of the global energy transition"

More here: https://tamim.com.au/australia-all-cap/australia-all-cap-report-archive/australia-all-cap-april-2025-monthly-report/


16

Shapeshifter
Added a month ago

This has been my best performing investment this year but for me this is a classic example of the share price driving the narrative.

Yes the fundamentals look good but two things have happened here:

  1. Low liquidity
  2. Institutional/fund interest

In Ben Grahams short run voting machine verses a long term weighing machine we are still in the voting machine stage of the market for the EOL share price.

21

RogueTrader
Added a month ago

A good (new) discussion of EOL, RUL and NEU at Equity Mates with Luke Laretive from Seneca: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wbYMrXTOP4c&t=1729s&ab_channel=EquityMates

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