Pinned straw:
Slow News Days…
I’ve been finding myself more impatient than usual for actual Anteris news and have been pondering why that is the case. Even allowing for the notion that the scheduled commencement of the pivotal trial is a critical milestone for Anteris, I’ve had more of a sense there there is a decision that I have to make somehow. The last meaningful announcement for Anteris was for its quarterly results published last month [ASX announcement 14/05/2025]. Even with their positive spin it’s hard not to read into it that both timeframes and costs are running beyond the best, or most optimistic, expectations of management. This — coupled with some helpful and poignant prompting from the Strawman community — has forced me to consider just what are the full implications of this news.
I’ve concluded that it’s not a thesis breaker, or at least not yet. But, I do have to concede that every delay — and every dilutive raising of capital — is a problem for my valuation. Too many of either could eventually damage my multi-bagger investment thesis. And without this being a multi-bagger then I’m just not interested. If I wanted smaller returns for my money I’d stick to the NASDAQ 100 rather than deal with the risk of a TAVR start-up.
I’ve been operating on the basis that the US IPO is a net-positive, in that it presents the optimal forum for future capital injection / partnerships / acquisition. However, I am not yet prepared for the opposite side of that coin: the confronting thought that I may, in fact, be dealing with an efficient market — that Anteris is actually priced correctly.
However, I’m also conscious that I’m straying into ‘over-thinking’ territory here. I do find it hard to accept that Anteris is actually only worth a couple of hundred mil more than its current cash position. For that reason I’ve decided it might be time for me to take some advice from Charlie Munger and that perhaps I’m at the the ‘sit-on-my-ass’ stage of this particular investment. The news will come and the chips will fall where they may, hopefully without taking my net worth with them.
I’ll revisit my valuation at the end of Q3 and see where I am at.
Positive Sign? OR Just Another Mouth To Feed?
Turns out I just couldn’t stay away from the froghurt machine. Anteris is certainly advertising as if the clinical trial is going ahead as planned. Who knows if that’s a good or bad thing…Maybe I should apply just for the job and ask them that way?
Another job going, this one in Europe. Seems like a lot of coin. Mind you, it won’t last you too long in Switzerland, expensive place — money disappears quickly there, a concept Anteris knows well.
