Forum Topics AR9 AR9 Bull Case

Pinned straw:

Added 6 months ago

US department of defence and UK MOD - RECENT WINS

Following its recent contract with the U.S. Department of Defense and a significant new agreement in the UK, archTIS Limited (ASX: AR9) is entering a transformative growth phase. The company’s flagship product, NC Protect, offers data-centric security controls that are increasingly demanded across defense and government sectors globally—particularly as agencies migrate to cloud platforms like Microsoft 365. The recent U.S. DoD contract confirms NC Protect’s compliance with one of the world’s most rigorous cybersecurity environments and places the company in prime position to extend its footprint across the broader U.S. federal ecosystem. This could easily be interpreted as a turning point: not just for short-term revenue, but as a strategic validation of archTIS's technology and value proposition.

The UK contract further supports this momentum. Although the initial agreement with a global aerospace and defense contractor is valued at A$263,185 for 400 users, the implementation is explicitly designed to serve as a global reference model for secure data collaboration across a 100,000+ user enterprise.

Looking at the broader potential, the U.S. Department of Defense itself supports over 1 million personnel, while the UK Ministry of Defence and its industrial base collectively represent another 100,000+ user segment. If archTIS can successfully expand within these institutions, and replicate its per-user pricing model, the numbers are striking:

These estimates do not yet include future upselling of additional features, services, or integration support, nor do they account for the private sector defense contractors, Five Eyes alliance spillover, or EU/NATO cyber compliance programs, all of which could further expand archTIS’s total addressable market (TAM).

Beyond these immediate opportunities, archTIS’s entire client base—including other government departments, law enforcement, and defense-industrial organizations in Australia, Europe, and North America—is potentially convertible to NC Protect deployments. Given the growing global emphasis on Zero Trust security architectures, Microsoft 365 migration, and sovereign data control, the company is well-placed to capture a significant share of the secure collaboration market. Even capturing a modest fraction of the Western defense and government cloud migration activity could represent hundreds of millions in recurring revenue.


To calculate the potential contract value projections using the pricing benchmark from archTIS’s initial U.S. DoD contract: A$38,000 for 1,000 users, which equates to A$38 per user (assumed to be annual or per-license, as per standard enterprise licensing models, and there would no bet doubt be contract package discounts so this is merely to give an idea of the potential)

We will apply this updated per-user cost across different scale-up scenarios to reflect the true revenue potential if archTIS expands within the U.S. Department of Defense, the UK Ministry of Defence, and its global enterprise clients.


Current UK Client Expansion

Initial deployment: 400 users = A$15,200

Full rollout potential: 100,000 users x A$38 = A$3.8 million annually. If extended to a 3-year contract (as with the initial UK deal):

- A$3.8 million x 3 years = A$11.4 million


US DoD Expansion: 150,000 Users

- 150,000 users x A$38 = A$5.7 million annually

- Over 3 years: A$17.1 million


DoD Full Potential Rollout: 1 Million Users (actually 4m users)

- 1,000,000 users x A$38 = A$38 million annually

- Over 3 years: A$114 million


Potential Across Global Client Base


Assuming archTIS can achieve broader penetration across allied defense and enterprise clients through channel partners, Microsoft integrations, and security mandates, the following growth tiers could emerge:

250,000 users (moderate government and defense market share)

→ A$9.5M annually / A$28.5M over 3 years


500,000 users (expansion into multiple agencies and defense primes)

→ A$19M annually / A$57M over 3 years


1.5M users (widespread enterprise and defense ecosystem adoption)

→ A$57M annually / A$171M over 3 years


Strategic Implications

These revised, more conservative pricing projections still present a high-margin, scalable growth opportunity for archTIS. Even at A$38 per user, the product maintains clear value due to:

- Regulatory compliance with mandates like JSP 440, CMMC, ITAR, etc.

- Zero Trust security fit in modern collaboration environments.

- Minimal deployment friction due to NC Protect’s tight Microsoft 365 integration.


If archTIS can sustain product excellence and secure long-term contracts through successful proof-of-concept deployments (as in the UK), the cumulative revenue potential from defense, government, and industrial clients remains in the tens to hundreds of millions over multi-year horizons—even before accounting for upsell opportunities like Kojensi or managed services.

In summary, while current contracts are measured, their strategic depth—and the sheer scalability of NC Protect across regulated enterprises—places archTIS on the cusp of exponential value creation. The company’s execution on these early wins will determine how much of this massive potential can be realized, but the foundations are now firmly in place.

This is obviously thinking long-term but as invested that's exactly what we are supposed to do.


Saasquatch
Added 6 months ago

Amending Contract Potentials


https://azuremarketplace.microsoft.com/en-us/marketplace/apps/nucleuscyber.nc_protect_m365?tab=PlansAndPrice


SCENARIO 1: 1 Million Users at $4 USD per User


One-Time License Model

USD:

1,000,000 × $4 = $4,000,000 USD


AUD (approx.):

A$6,000,000



Annual License Model

Yearly Revenue: $4 million USD/year


Over 3 years:

3 × $4M = $12 million USD

A$18 million


SCENARIO 2: 1 Million Users at $6 USD per User (long term roll out)


One-Time License Model

USD:

1,000,000 × $6 = $6,000,000 USD


AUD (approx.):

A$9,000,000


Annual License Model

Yearly Revenue: $6 million USD/year


Over 3 years:

3 × $6M = $18 million USD

A$27 million


Strategic Interpretation (in USD)


At 1 million users, NC Protect becomes an eight-figure annual revenue product even at the lowest pricing tier.

The SaaS model offers massive upside — $1M AUD/year (150,000 users) to $1.5M AUD/year is transformative for a company the size of archTIS.

This level of DoD-wide deployment would not only be a financial milestone, but likely catalyze:

Allied adoption (e.g. Five Eyes partners)

Inclusion in other U.S. federal/civilian agencies


With validation from the US DoD, the company is now referencing worldwide to any industry and environment given the strict compliance and testing required for US DoD implementation.

imo, this is where the MC is going to struggle to quantify the product and potential for the company as growth evolves.

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Saasquatch
Added 6 months ago

You would not believe the reasons why trading was halted on Wednesday morning for archtis.


Rumour has it that the ASX automatic trading monitoring system flagged the fact that the stock price had risen on Monday and Tuesday before a Wednesday release and so there was going to be evidence to inside a trading or something along those lines... However, there was also an announcement Monday it was marked not price sensitive and the ASX is the guiding body that determines whether or not an announcement is or is not, price sensitive. The automatic bot recognized a mistake because prices had clearly risen from Monday's release of a large US deal potential.

Comical ineptitude

Retail must lose in order for the big funds to win

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