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#Bull Case
Added 3 months ago

Sub-stack


I came across this sub stack and although it is more on the very bullish side I think it's relevant in a lot of the information that it provides. Worthy of a read for those interested in investing or diving deeper. Along with the CEO interview earlier this week.

https://open.substack.com/pub/nowspeculator/p/archtis-limited-asxar9?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=9amap

#Business Model/Strategy
Added 4 months ago

AR9 High Growth SAAS, Top Secret Data Management Business - Sticky and high margin


The market has been trying to digest and articulate through price the value of what is transpired over the last week starting the 16/6/25. The company will continue to be in price discovery when it returns from suspension (previously explained).


Licence deals mentioned last week 16/6 and 18/6

According to: https://azuremarketplace.microsoft.com/en-us/marketplace/apps/nucleuscyber.nc_protect_m365?tab=PlansAndPrice

2501-5000 users, costing $30,250/month or $4/user, No doubt a deal will be cut for bulk.


Based on current contract discussion mentions: 

Users/licence/month (prices indicating 12 months)

Dollars/month - Yearly revenue

US 150,000 users DOD M365Secret

$1 - 1.8m/yr

$3 - 5.4m/yr

$5 - 7.5m/yr


1,000,000 users longer term rollout (potential) *There are other horizontals and verticals within the DOD

$1 - 12m/yr

$3 - 36m/yr

$5 - 60m/yr


UK MOD Aerospace company with 100,000 users $/licence/month

$1 - 1.2m/yr

$3 - 3.6m/yr

$5 - 6m/yr

I have been cultivating notes over four years since being an owner of the company and riding the tumultuous ups and downs. I will post access to viewable content created from these notes through my use of ai. Obviously, these views are my own and the notes are my own, taken from various meetings. You will find a plethora of information through quarterly webinars and digging through Microsoft commentary. Given this is a secretive space with above top-secret protection, it is difficult to draw links and give reference to tangible evidence, however, I've done my best effort to do so. Please keep that in mind and understand that this is not gospel but merely my musings.

Power Point Overview

Resource Videos and Links

Fact Checked Amalgamated Notes

Fact Checked Excel Sheet


#Bull Case
Added 4 months ago

US department of defence and UK MOD - RECENT WINS

Following its recent contract with the U.S. Department of Defense and a significant new agreement in the UK, archTIS Limited (ASX: AR9) is entering a transformative growth phase. The company’s flagship product, NC Protect, offers data-centric security controls that are increasingly demanded across defense and government sectors globally—particularly as agencies migrate to cloud platforms like Microsoft 365. The recent U.S. DoD contract confirms NC Protect’s compliance with one of the world’s most rigorous cybersecurity environments and places the company in prime position to extend its footprint across the broader U.S. federal ecosystem. This could easily be interpreted as a turning point: not just for short-term revenue, but as a strategic validation of archTIS's technology and value proposition.

The UK contract further supports this momentum. Although the initial agreement with a global aerospace and defense contractor is valued at A$263,185 for 400 users, the implementation is explicitly designed to serve as a global reference model for secure data collaboration across a 100,000+ user enterprise.

Looking at the broader potential, the U.S. Department of Defense itself supports over 1 million personnel, while the UK Ministry of Defence and its industrial base collectively represent another 100,000+ user segment. If archTIS can successfully expand within these institutions, and replicate its per-user pricing model, the numbers are striking:

These estimates do not yet include future upselling of additional features, services, or integration support, nor do they account for the private sector defense contractors, Five Eyes alliance spillover, or EU/NATO cyber compliance programs, all of which could further expand archTIS’s total addressable market (TAM).

Beyond these immediate opportunities, archTIS’s entire client base—including other government departments, law enforcement, and defense-industrial organizations in Australia, Europe, and North America—is potentially convertible to NC Protect deployments. Given the growing global emphasis on Zero Trust security architectures, Microsoft 365 migration, and sovereign data control, the company is well-placed to capture a significant share of the secure collaboration market. Even capturing a modest fraction of the Western defense and government cloud migration activity could represent hundreds of millions in recurring revenue.


To calculate the potential contract value projections using the pricing benchmark from archTIS’s initial U.S. DoD contract: A$38,000 for 1,000 users, which equates to A$38 per user (assumed to be annual or per-license, as per standard enterprise licensing models, and there would no bet doubt be contract package discounts so this is merely to give an idea of the potential)

We will apply this updated per-user cost across different scale-up scenarios to reflect the true revenue potential if archTIS expands within the U.S. Department of Defense, the UK Ministry of Defence, and its global enterprise clients.


Current UK Client Expansion

Initial deployment: 400 users = A$15,200

Full rollout potential: 100,000 users x A$38 = A$3.8 million annually. If extended to a 3-year contract (as with the initial UK deal):

- A$3.8 million x 3 years = A$11.4 million


US DoD Expansion: 150,000 Users

- 150,000 users x A$38 = A$5.7 million annually

- Over 3 years: A$17.1 million


DoD Full Potential Rollout: 1 Million Users (actually 4m users)

- 1,000,000 users x A$38 = A$38 million annually

- Over 3 years: A$114 million


Potential Across Global Client Base


Assuming archTIS can achieve broader penetration across allied defense and enterprise clients through channel partners, Microsoft integrations, and security mandates, the following growth tiers could emerge:

250,000 users (moderate government and defense market share)

→ A$9.5M annually / A$28.5M over 3 years


500,000 users (expansion into multiple agencies and defense primes)

→ A$19M annually / A$57M over 3 years


1.5M users (widespread enterprise and defense ecosystem adoption)

→ A$57M annually / A$171M over 3 years


Strategic Implications

These revised, more conservative pricing projections still present a high-margin, scalable growth opportunity for archTIS. Even at A$38 per user, the product maintains clear value due to:

- Regulatory compliance with mandates like JSP 440, CMMC, ITAR, etc.

- Zero Trust security fit in modern collaboration environments.

- Minimal deployment friction due to NC Protect’s tight Microsoft 365 integration.


If archTIS can sustain product excellence and secure long-term contracts through successful proof-of-concept deployments (as in the UK), the cumulative revenue potential from defense, government, and industrial clients remains in the tens to hundreds of millions over multi-year horizons—even before accounting for upsell opportunities like Kojensi or managed services.

In summary, while current contracts are measured, their strategic depth—and the sheer scalability of NC Protect across regulated enterprises—places archTIS on the cusp of exponential value creation. The company’s execution on these early wins will determine how much of this massive potential can be realized, but the foundations are now firmly in place.

This is obviously thinking long-term but as invested that's exactly what we are supposed to do.


#Bull Case
stale
Added one year ago

Altocrypt device is a USB hardware device that allows secure access to data remotely. A problem that has previously been hard to solve and they have partnered with archTIS via PENTEN.


https://www.penten.com/solutions/secure-mobility/altocrypt-stik/


Using Kojensi, could this be the link needed to secure the entire data of the Aus defence?


#Business Model/Strategy
stale
Added 2 years ago

Potential:120,000 Aus DoD staff. Consider expansion into MOD UK and US DoD.

Kojensi $65/ user / month

nc protect $1-$5/ user / month

(pending scale discounts)

A 1000 user base for Kojensi could yield $780,000 per year in ARR for licenses once a proof of concept has been Serviced. That is what is happening under the hood now.

NC Protect for the entire Aus DoD (120,000) could yield anything from 1.5m to 4.5m ARR for licences.

That's one niche in one territory and includes nothing within the DIB (Defence industrial base). Map that against the potential of this company around the world and within ministries of defence, DIB, other verticals (finance, accounting, law, critical infrastructure) 

#Business Model/Strategy
stale
Added 2 years ago

Product/geopolitical and need thesis:

This article outlines the challenge.

Will Regulatory Poison Pills Render AUKUS Dead on Arrival

https://thediplomat.com/2023/09/will-regulatory-poison-pills-render-aukus-dead-on-arrival/


This article outlines the solution.

Senators want a special government unit to help small businesses with cyberattacks

https://www.scmagazine.com/news/bipartisan-bill-would-create-special-government-unit-to-help-small-businesses-with-cyber-attacks


Archtis have a connection with KPMG, SAP, NETAPP, MICROSOFT, many of the Defence Industrial Base companies (leidos, BAE, Northrop Grumman) as well as branching into european demographic with bank of Finland and DHL.

The use case has been proven.

From my research, the only way small businesses can operate while protecting their data and sovereignty is through a govt funded marketplace. One that is destined for Australia's systems with archtis walking hand in hand through department of defence and govt who currently use their products and if you check austender, you will see many solutions outlining my thesis naming archtis as a provider supplier applying for the tender.

Dyor

#Moats
stale
Added 2 years ago

SAP collaboration

https://www.archtis.com/sap-secures-sensitive-government-and-regulated-industry-data-with-kojensi/?utm_campaign=Blog%20Update&utm_content=231535253&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&hss_channel=tw-1040120963520581633

SAP cloud secure space

https://itbrief.com.au/story/sap-s-sovereign-cloud-capabilities-available-in-anz


The work is done behind the scenes before securing critical infrastructure and SLACIP become a prerequisite to securing sovereign information. Australia is ahead of the world in this space and although technology is constantly adapting and changing, as it stands, archtis have world leading technologies that protect data and are certified to the highest level of protection. Every deal they have secured in the last 18 months have been sole sourced.

https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/reports-and-publications/submissions-and-discussion-papers/slacip-bill-2022


The quarterly is today and although it may not have any surprises, the uptrend is continuing with 10m of revenue locked in for this coming year already 23-24 less than a month into the new FY.