Forum Topics PWH PWH Good News/Bad News

Pinned straw:

Last edited 4 months ago

The good news is they have an 8am call tomorrow to present their case. The bad news is prima facie this is their case.

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I think a FY26 10% increase in revenue and 20% increase in costs are heroic assumptions, which I've fully adopted because otherwise...

SP to get smashed tomorrow.

Rocket6
Added 3 months ago

This is a good business, but I maintain my view that it is overpriced (and then some). Even after the belting it received today, this is still a 750m market cap business, trading on a 6x revenue multiple, despite revenue having gone backwards in FY25! Worth noting the current P/E in excess of 40, for a business that hasn't grown over the last 12 months and continues to report short to medium term pressures.

I went one further with a fast and loose DCF (here) -- resulting in an intrinsic value of around 300m, based on cash flow growth of 10-15%.

Maybe I am wrong (most likely) but this doesn't add up to me from a pricing point of view.

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Solvetheriddle
Added 3 months ago

gee, Kees didn't sound too good on the call. hmm. @Rocket6 yes it is a very long way back from the current NPAT, but remember they have put in significant capacity, so they are very low on capacity utilisation, US /Oz. if volumes pick up, they can get real op lev. but that's the rub, the US Govt ct will help, but as we have found out and as they have stated, there is a fragility to the sustainability of their orders. they talk about runs and then the runs ending. Didn't like that; sounds like they have to continually catch their prey to grow. hard work. A&D really needs to fire in a sustainable way.

hold small position, nothing in result to get excited about imo

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Karmast
Added 3 months ago

@Noddy74 @thunderhead @Rocket6 and @Solvetheriddle what they delivered for FY25 was roughly what I was expecting after the half year updates. I will still hold my valuation around $7 but it's contingent on a few things now -

# They really need to nail the new CEO hire. The CFO is great. Acting CEO Bryson seems great on technicals and operations but he isnt a natural CEO. Great to have Kees back on the Board as a sounding board etc. But they need a polished and sensible capital allocator now to drive the next phase of growth and interact with customers and the market well.

# Staff costs now normalise. I'm glad they are paying more and have reduced the high turnover but the growth rate should slow now and hopefully they get more productive too.

# And in turn, margins heads back up this year and revenue grows at least 10% based on further growth in A&D plus the improvements that should come from the new facility.

Given their long term history there are plenty of reasons to trust them and even good businesses can have an off year when they invest and set up for the next phase. I will give them some rope here and trust that's what's happening rather than an end to their 10 year run.


This picture is a positive one and if it continues, then in 5 years A&D could be bigger than motorsports and the total business could be twice the current size...


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thunderhead
Added 3 months ago

Some parallels with Audinate and its teething troubles in "transitioning". Of course, very different companies otherwise, and PWH is profitable and has more aligned, founder-led management.

It isn't doing too badly given the numbers and outlook. A quick recovery from the lows today, though whether it will hold over the coming months is anyone's guess.

Disc.: Held in SM and IRL.

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