@raymon68 ... Just watch the market response evolve as it digests what we are being told about AI exploitation.

Just topped up myself. As you say, @mikebrisy - too predictable! Looking at that FY26 guidance, one can hope they'll miss it by a few percent (which would still be an amazing result!) and then next year, this time, Mr. Market will throw another hissy fit, and there'll be yet more opportunity to snaffle up some more of what is surely one of the better long-term growth companies on the ASX.

Held IRL.

@Clio I don't know what will happen next year.

It was possible to see the FY25 miss on revenue and EBITDA coming. In fact, based both on that AND the RW "goverance" and behaviour issues, had me going into the result with a lighter RL position than I've historically held (<6% RL vs. 8% RL).

It was clear from two of the most recent presentations before today, that implementing CTO was going to be a much bigger deal that when they originally set expectations. At the second expectations re-set, they communicated the piece about the East Coast Australia pilot, and then today they further refined that for the collabotive venture with ACFS Port Logistics. So I am not expecting any significant revenues from it in FY26, whereas originally, it was expected to contribute to FY25. So, that 1-2 years slippage.

However, as RW himself said, the product will be ready for rollout when the customer says its ready. And therefore there is still execution risk around CTO.

A significant time blowout in projects is commonplace. And in IT, the blowouts can be long. It is hardly surprising because installing a capability like CTO is risky from the customers' perspectives. Afterall, they are digitalising their mission critical, revenue generating processes on an unproven platform. Who would take that risk!

Over its history, $WTC has set usually quite challenging guidance, but after a "miss" the guidance has proven to be "softer". It has always been able to meet those guidance resets because of the rollouts of Cargowise providing a high proportion of the revenue growth. As industry penetration of Cargowise matures (which it demonstrably is), the ongoing rollout programmes progressively become less of each year's growth.

I don't think the FY26 targets are necessarily soft. However, I think the team will feel chastised today by the market (they would have known the reaction was coming) and therefore the FY26 guidance range will have taken out any CTO commercialisation from the lower end. Because of that, I think they are likely to hit this year's guidance. Both the CEO and CFO are new to their roles, and I have no doubt that they would have pushed back if RW was pressing them to guide higher than they believe they can deliver. (I'd love to have been a fly on the wall in those meetings!) I personally believe that RW is prepared to be a bit more relaxed about meeting or missing guidance in any period, because his focus is really on the medium and long term.

In the 9 years of following $WTC (and having owned it most of that time), I see the annual dance around guidance pretty much as a side show. I actually wish they wouldn't provide guidance, and just report their results. However, it has provided reliable opportunities to reduce exposure when the market gets too excited about a "beat" and to plough back in to a full weight position when the "misses" happen, as they inevitably do.

But I am strapping in for a few interesting years ahead. E2Open takes $WTC into completely new territory, and I have no doubt there will be a few mis-steps along the way. What will be interesting to track is how many of the E2Open management team are in place in 12 months time. It is important to remember that something like 70% of big M&A deals fail. E2Open is a big M&A deal. It is not a "tuck in" of the kind that $WTC has proven it can deliver.

On M&A, one "excuse" for the revenue miss was the loss of revenue from BLume and Envase (I need to go back over my recording and look at what was said carefully). Again, this has happened in the past in historical acquisitions and, indeed, was the source of the famous Short Report of several years ago. So even that is known territory (for me anyway.)

So, interesting times ahead. But the vision and $WTC's execution against that vision remains as exciting for me today as when I first invested in the business in September 2016 (as a MF Pro recommendation.) What will also be fascinating to watch over the next two years is what happens with the Agentic AI integration, and that transition of customer to the new commercial model. I have no doubt we will get updates on this at each presentation, and I hope to hear more about it at the Investor Day later in the year.

There is a LOT going on at this business.

Overall, the result for FY25 was disappointing to a point. I say "to a point" because a guidance miss is a self-inflicted wound. But several other metrics were strong. For example, Operating Cashflow grew 30% y-o-y, meaning that $WTC threw off US$367m in operating cash (or around $570m). No surprise then that the dividend was increased by 24%.

$WTC remains a core holding for me and probably my highest conviction investment.

Disc. Held in RL only (Note: I tend not to hold "proven" companies on SM, but list them in my SM profile.)

@mikebrisy, am I reading that guidance right? (I've been on the LOV call and doing the numbers) That implies u/l WTC revenues +8-15% for FY26, assuming no growth from E2O from bottom to top of guidance, unless E2O goes backwards, always possible if they shed biz. 8-15% looks light

the FY25 numbers were 3% light at revenue and spot on for NPATA for me. so i think it's a guidance issue--as you say, the CTO delay could be it.

@Solvetheriddle it is a bit complicated, and I've just finished working through this myself. To understand what's going on you really need to view slides 15 and 30 together.

As my baseline, I am using the Pro forma $WTC + E2Open, taking 11 months of E2Open (as the deal closed at start of August).

FY25 Proforma ($WTC + E2Open0 = $1,386.80 but taking 11 months of E2Open gives $1336.12 m baseline for FY25

On that basis the guidance for FY26 Revenue of $1390 - $1444 is 4.0% - 8.1% growth over the proforma combination.

It is important to remember that E2Open has essentially stagnated, with no growth from 2023 through 2025. Of course, that was in the acquisition mutliple.

On top of that, $WTC will wind down the services business, which contributes around 13% of E2Open's revenues, but only has a very low % Gross Margin, and in any event $WTC is all about SaaS and not getting into the services game. (I have to go back over today's recording to see what was actually said about services.) The services business was discounted upfront by $WTC in the acquisition - and it is of no conseuqence to me, I will therefore completely discount its loss in the impact on revenue growth in the first year, or for as long as it takes $WTC to exit.

So, the growth number to focus on for FY26 is Cargowise Growth, which is guided to be 14% to 21%.

The analysts then picked up on the statement, which says for Cargowise there is a 1H/2H skew "3pp more weighted to 2H that in FY25" because of the timing of transition to the new commercial model. I need to dig into this further, because I think this is the case of the $WTC team buying themselves some wiggle room for FY26.

As always with big M&A (which is one reason why I hate it) the numbers are going to be a mess for at least one year, maybe two.

So, although I want to see Cargowise growing well, I am more interested in the management narrative around how the integration is and how they see the potential in another year's time. It is important to keep an eye on Cargowise growth, as there is a risk that top management get distracted by E2Open integration ... albeit arguably a more productive "distraction" than what we've had last year (!!!)

But management are taking on a lot, because integration of E2Open is happening at the same time as they are evolving the Cargowise Commercial Model. I'd imagine that is going to take a lot of the Chief Innovation Officer's time in the Boardroom's of their biggest clients.

RW has earned some rope from me over the year, so I'll consider the thesis intact subject to the following for FY26:

• Cargowise revenue growth >15%
• No material writedowns for E2Open except for anything relating to contracts/exit from the services business
• Revenue and EBITDA guidance are hit
• More tangible reports of positive progess on CTO. If there are issues, then a year in the collaboration/trial should allow these to be ironed out.
• Tangible and material merger savings fully identified, and relfected in strongly enhanced EBITDA guidance for FY27 (or at least FY27 exit runrate).

I'll need to rely on the strength of my conviction over the next year, as there is ample room for the market/analysts to get the wrong end of the stick. This has often happened in the past following much smaller M&A, and management's word has proven to be reliable.

I hope that answers your question - and I need to go over everything in much greater detail once reporting season is behind us. I'm still digesting this myself.

One thing is for certain - management at $WTC will be very, very busy in FY26.

(BTW, congrats. on $LOV got that one entirely wrong!)

@mikebrisy thanks Mike much appreciated, a lot of moving parts ill wait for the transcript lol

I've pasted below summaries of initial analyst comments from @Jimmy's extremely helpful daily post (Thank you for your service, sir, I read it every day!)

It amazes me how hyper-focused the analysts are on the shortest of short terms.

For example, one below is obsessed with the "short-term revenues" for CTO as key to "any investment thesis" (really, any thesis?). Wrong question mate! I don't care one jot about what CTO will make in FY26, and I am assuming its $0, to the nearest $million. What I care about a lot is what it makes in FY29, FY31 and FY35!

And what bright spark doesn't allow for acquisition and integration costs for an acquisition of comparable scale to the acquirer, and not update their forecast accordingly? Although it is many, many moons ago that I was a dark suit working on M&A deals, the benchmarks we typically used were 3% to 6% of deal value, depending on a whole bunch of factors. I don't think that has changed much. So, it might have been a good idea to put $60-$120m aside (all in, transaction and integration) across FY25 and FY26, and maybe even a smidge in FY27.

$E2Open's accounts are a mess (to my eye, but I am not an accountant), but even if you ignore all the 2025 impairments and adjustments, it looks like it has a cost base comparable to $WTC's. (No wonder I sensed some trepidation - or was it excitement - in CFO Caroline Pham's presentation of the pro forma statement. Probably the most consequential slide she has ever had to present!) I have rarely in 35 years of business seen what is likely to prove a more target rich environment. But there is no doubt in my mind, this is a high risk integration, but there is a very high reward at the end of it. And THAT'S what the analysts should have been grilling management on. I mean, they've had months to prepare.

And because analysts tend to anchor on their own published work (human nature) the question I have is: will we now see some hefty TP reductions? If so, I might get to use my dry powder over the coming days.

Or maybe, they'll recognise some of the value in today's presentation. For example, what value is released, when in 5 years E2Open has been swallowed completely and we're back to $WTC customary %Gross Margin and Cost structure (even if you don't think they'll do much on the revenue side).

OK, that's my rant over. I know the share price might well wobble a bit, but today marked the set up for what I think will be a very interesting few years ahead for $WTC.

=======================

0251 GMT - WiseTech still isn't being clear about how much FY 2026 revenue it expects from its new Container Transport Optimization product, says E&P analyst Paul Mason. He points out that the logistics-software provider's management will only talk about the potential revenue opportunity when CTO is fully rolled out, even when he asks them to clarify their near-term expectations. Mason doesn't argue with WiseTech's rationale for a deliberately slow rollout, but just wants more detail on short-term revenues. Without this, he says there is a question hanging over any investment thesis. E&P has a last-published positive recommendation and A$142.00 target price on the stock, which is down 9.5% at A$104.78. ([email protected])

0231 GMT - WiseTech Global's earnings guidance may not have missed expectations by quite as much as initially feared, RBC analyst Garry Sherriff suggests. He tells clients in a note that not all analyst forecasts took account of integration costs relating to WiseTech's recent acquisition of e2open. Excluding those $45 million-$50 million one-off costs, Sheriff reckons that the logistics-software provider's Ebitda guidance is only about 6% short of consensus, rather than the 13% seen at first glance. RBC has a last-published outperform rating and A$130.00 target price on the stock, which is down 9.3% at A$105.035. ([email protected])

0223 GMT - WiseTech's cost control was the highlight of the logistics-software provider's annual result for Jarden's analysts. They were already more optimistic than consensus on costs ahead of WiseTech's fiscal 2025 result announcement, but still saw the Australian company beat their forecast by 5%. Less positively, they tell clients in a note that WiseTech's revenue of US$778.7 million not only fell short of guidance, but missed their forecast by about 2%. Jarden has a last-published neutral rating and A$106.00 target price on the stock, which is down 8.9% at A$105.49. ([email protected])

My WTC it took a while!, Some extra guidance on depreciation and interest would have been great. Maybe the brokers can add value there, given mgt access, my note below

i realise this is quite messy, but after a few hours, it reconciles lol

WTC FY25 result

Revenues were 14% higher, 3% less than expected, while u/l NPATA was 41% higher, exactly in line. Summary: Growth a bit slower, but cost extraction made up for it.

FY26 will see 11 months of E2O acquisition, and WTC gave pro forma revenue and EBITDA numbers. Guidance revenues for FY26 were $1,39-1.44B with EBITDA margins 40-41%. Looks a little light on revenues again. Incorporating E2O changes the business and accounts somewhat.

Important points

1.    Two large contracts are being brought on that will skew numbers to the second half

2.    WTC have initiated a new pricing model, eliminating seats and making pricing transaction-dependent. The new model will be rolled out, and take-up will be progressive. It was mentioned that smaller clients will find it attractive. AI is also being infused into the offering. For customers to access the AI workflow benefits and AI management benefits, they must be on the new commercial model

3.    The rollout of CTO has been slowed as the acquisition of E2O has increased the scope of work and needs algorithm changes that will take time. WTC appear excited about the larger opportunity given by a broader visibility of container opportunities.

Two big initiatives here with CTO being rescoped, given the E2O opportunity and the AI-infused new pricing model.

The complexity of tying in freight forwarders, logistic operators and the end customer is enormous. Obviously, a big prize if it is successful. The carrot is efficiency gains for individual participants and the whole logistics system.

The issue given the dilution in margins, one-off costs of about $50m, and increased interest and depreciation costs, NPATA 2026 is looking flat on 2025, on my numbers. EPS growth from this base is 23% on my assumption of underlying modest gains plus the $50m one-offs falling out and $50m E2O synergies from 2027, eps is over the next 5 years. It is likely that extra synergies will be generated, given E20's size (about the same as WTC).

A higher risk reward proposition, given the potential and its risks, would be interested in buying around $90.

@Solvetheriddle super summary.

I think you are higher on revenue because of holding E2O flat. I think it will decline as they let the services component run off, and given track record of last 3 years, new signings at E2O replacing churn would be a good outcome. (That’s just a superficial assumption.)

I bought some more today at $99, and would also be back for more at $90, to get back to my full position.

@mikebrisy i was flabbergasted by the AI integration, I listen to a lot of US companies calls and only the hyperscalers have advanced that far, plus CRM NOW who are threatened, if it is true its astonishing achievement imo, world class effort

the 2026 results look quite weak maybe that throws up a opportunity

Looks like this might head to 90. Selling is relentless.

I bought some after selling Scidev recently but clearly i have had trouble timing my orders here.

Just to be clear I sold Scidev after the miss in revenue despite reiterated guidance as I feel the miss was not properly explained and they could be over promising.