EMVision Medical Devices Ltd

ASX:EMV

EMVision Medical Devices Ltd

ASX:EMV
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$1.850 (0%)
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#123
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8
Held by
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Reports (4) My Report Forum Investors
Forum Topics EMV EMV Exiting EMV

Pinned straw:
jcmleng
Added 4 months ago

I decided over the weekend to fully exit my EMV position IRL and in SM. Have exited EMV in SM in full and 40% of my IRL holdings today. I expect to sell down the rest of the 60% in the coming days.

Portfolio Context

Cash proceeds will likely be used to top up my 3 US medical companies - AVH, NAN and BOT, all of which have established FDA-approved products, large TAMS and good opportunity ahead. These appear to be more optimal use of the capital currently invested in EMV.

At ~1.72, EMV was a 1.74% position in my RL portfolio. Exiting at 1.74 netted a ~15% gain over 2 years - not flash but not too shabby either.

RATIONALE FOR EXIT

  • The BOT and AVH experience has demonstrated the huge challenges in any medical company introducing a new FDA-approved product into the US market.
  • EMV is doing very well heading towards FDA approval for both bedside Emu and the portable version of Emu and given current trajectory and progress, FDA approval for both is imminent in the next 12-18 months
  • The EMV price will continue to move sideways until FDA approval is obtained as there really is no catalyst to boost the price - it has been drifting downwards steadily
  • But post FDA-approval, EMV will go through the same challenges with launching the commercial sales of Emu, and will likely go through the same challenges as AVH and BOT is currently undergoing to get commercial traction
  • EMV management is mostly NAN-experienced and will no doubt bring to bear the experience of commercialising Trophon to the commercialising of Emu, but both BOT and AVH have demonstrated that having prior experience in the commercialisation process does not guarantee a smooth ride either.
  • Would rather not have to go through the wild price ride again
  • The entry into EMV has been good as it was skin in the game to build knowledge on (1) how medical devices go through FDA approval process and (2) the challenges of pre-FDA approval commercials


Discl: Held IRL, but should fully exit in the coming days
Nnyck777
Added 3 months ago

Hi @jcmleng- an interesting read. I appreciate your candor. I have been reading NEU forums with a lot of talk around where people are going to reinvest there profits with a takeover. People seem to think it’s now a given and soon which I hope but I am still reluctant to assume.

EMV was mentioned a few times as a potential company to redistribute profits too so your post is very timely given what I am reading.

If NEU does indeed get a takeover offer the companies that will likely benefit are the early stage asx companies with FDA approved products. PNV is getting a lot of mentions. I am considering investing more here as I thought results were promising at last report. However as @mikebrisy cautions the management and board issues still make me nervous. Even the best products can languish without a good management team.

BOT will also likely be a beneficiary. I absolutely agree that the initial roll out of new products can be painfully slow. Given the BOT management experience and the fast pivot in their strategy I anticipate a SP return to recent highs in the next 6/12. I also strongly suspect that the appointment of Dr Walker to the board could be a strong sign that future products will be added much faster than we anticipate.

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mikebrisy
Added 3 months ago

@Nnyck777 Yes, $PNV’s management, board and operations still concern me.

The main dynamic I’m watching, however, is whether $AVH’s “one-stop shop” of Permaderm, ReCell, and CoHealyx gains traction. That trifecta has only been in the U.S. market a few months, but if it sticks, $PNV faces a serious U.S. headwind.

The messy ReCell reimbursement code issue earlier this year (outside $AVH’s control) prevented a clean read on 2Q 2025. If 3Q 2025 (early Nov) shows real CoHealyx uptake, plus resolution of the reimbursement problem and renewed re-ordering from previously active accounts, $AVH’s SP could bounce hard. I’m keeping powder dry to play that if I can spot leading indicators ahead of consensus. That would point to a new headwind for Novosorb.

That said, I haven’t written $PNV off. In 2H FY26 it should be strongly cash-generative with good EPS growth — provided U.S. revenue doesn’t slow further (the potential headwind above).

The segment itself is a mix of headwinds and tailwinds:

  • Headwind: competitive intensity in that there may simply be too many players.
  • Tailwind: dermal substitutes continue to displace older treatments, with the overall category growing 6–12% p.a. through 2033, depending on the report and sub-segment (e.g., dermal repair faster than epidermal).


Given that uncertainty, I’m limiting exposure to <5% of my portfolio, but would increase if I see a clear leader that can both ride the segment’s growth and take share (I used to think that would be $PNV; now I’m less confident).

The unknown is what FTB (Full Thickness Burns) FDA approval could mean for Novosorb (likely late FY26 or early FY27). Currently, only Epicel, Integra DRT, and STSG are approved for FTB, with Integra and STSG approved for use alongside ReCell. (ReCell + Novosorb has only been used in trials/off-label.)

I estimate the U.S. FTB market at ~US$400m p.a. (est. by my "BA") Depending on trial results, Novosorb could see anything from a modest to a meaningful sales boost over 2–5 years. At the very least, FDA approval would be a share price catalyst (even if temporary) given $PNV’s volatility and the tendency for market overreaction and shorting.

Meanwhile, $AVH is running a post-market trial for CoHealyx vs Integra in “Full Thickness Wounds” (burns + trauma), with results mid-CY26. It puzzles me that $AVH can do a relatively quick FTB study while $PNV and BARDA have been grinding away for years — I must be missing something obvious there.

The upshot: by FY27 surgeons could have an expanded toolkit for the ~$400m FTB market (a small slice of U.S. dermal repair overall).

I’ve focused on FTB because that’s where $PNV may get a positive SP and revenue catalyst over the next year or so. If my thinking reads muddled, it’s because it is — this needs proper attention after reporting season.

There are several layers to this story (pun intended!).

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