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I decided over the weekend to fully exit my EMV position IRL and in SM. Have exited EMV in SM in full and 40% of my IRL holdings today. I expect to sell down the rest of the 60% in the coming days.
Portfolio Context
Cash proceeds will likely be used to top up my 3 US medical companies - AVH, NAN and BOT, all of which have established FDA-approved products, large TAMS and good opportunity ahead. These appear to be more optimal use of the capital currently invested in EMV.
At ~1.72, EMV was a 1.74% position in my RL portfolio. Exiting at 1.74 netted a ~15% gain over 2 years - not flash but not too shabby either.
RATIONALE FOR EXIT
Discl: Held IRL, but should fully exit in the coming days
Discl: Held IRL and in SM
SUMMARY
OPERATIONAL UPDATE
Nothing exciting or new about the EMV trading update as all the news has already been announced prior - this is a good summary of where things are at:

This was interesting as it provides context to understanding the US Defence market for Portable Field Scanners which was mentioned in an earlier announcement.

FINANCIALS

Summary

Continuous Innovation Study
In parallel to the Pivotal Trial, EMV is implementing a cost-effective strategy for continued device innovation, algorithm enhancement and data to support indication expansion for traumatic brain injury
Ethics approval received to commence scanning patients with suspected stroke or traumatic brain injury at Princess Alexandra Hospital BNE and John Hunter Hospital NTL - both sites are high volume Comprehensive Stroke and Level 1 Trauma Centres.


Nice award! To put this in perspective:
I still expect a capital raise but the grant removes the immediate need for that, pushing the timing of any raise nearer to commercial launch. Am very OK with that prospect as EMV has been very careful in its funding approach.
Next week’s SM chat with Scott is timely to get a better sense of how it is thinking about funding.
On a separate note, this was a good summary of the TAM for the First Responder Unit. I don’t think its new, but its the first time I have taken notice of it!

Discl: Held IRL and in SM
Nothing newsworthy as all of the business updates have been previously announced
Announcement says “remains well funded” but there has been no announcement of any funding plans for the latter part of CY2026 thus far. Management has a good track record of proactively paving the way forward, so I do expect news on this front should be forthcoming soon. Would be significantly more comfortable once this funding issue is decisively sorted.
Both a capital raise, particularly as FDA approval for emu becomes imminent would be a distinct possibility, or short term debt for 1-2 years to provide funding coverage for the commercialisation startup, would make sense.

Discl: Held IRL and in SM

In these turbulent times, happy to take whatever positive news is on offer by any of my companies! 2 positive things out of this:
Discl: Held IRL and in SM
Another on-track tick obtained to keep the trials moving forward. Things are happening quickly, and very much on the right track!
Discl: Held IRL and in SM

SUMMARY
Discl: Held IRL and in SM
Operational Highlights
3. First Responder POC Brain Scanner
Financials

Not unexpected - this was 1 of 2 sources of funding that EMV flagged for FY2025. But good to have it locked in regardless.
Probably adds a quarter of funding more to the 9.7 quarters of funding as of end-Sep 2024.
Discl: Held IRL and in SM
There were some interesting slides in the EMV FY2024 slide pack. No new news as EMV has communicated clearly and regularly to the market but there were a few background/context slides which was interesting to note.
Discl: Held IRL and in SM

The Stroke Indication was always front-and-centre
Seeing “Traumatic Brain Injury” as a second indication for the first time since I started deep-diving EMV
Also seeing the introduction of “Time Sensitive Medical Emergencies” for the first time - makes good sense and probably provides an indication of EMV’s direction and focus areas in the longer term

The step improvement in size and mobility illustrates how game changing EMV’s products will be in improving the diagnosis and treatment options

Don’t recall seeing a TAM slide like this before, so this was really useful
No target sale price for First Responder yet, so size of the TAM is unclear, but the significantly higher number of potential units surprised me somewhat

Nice summary of the pre-validation clinical results - that is seriously impressive accuracy


Nice summary of what’s ahead
End CY2025 Market Entry target is key from a funding standpoint - if that holds, and assuming no additional funding is obtained, EMV should have consumed ~55% of available cash at 30 Sep 2024 to get to that point (5 quarters vs ~9.4 quarters available funding)

First Responder timeline

Amen, but I would have liked to have seen a line or 2 to confirm “we have available cash to see us through to market entry”!
NEURODIAGNOSTIC ALGORITHMS DELIVER EXCELLENT RESULTS IN EMVIEW STUDY
My medical expertise goes as far as applying a band aid on a small cut wound, but this looked like good news in the stroke detection capabilities of Emu.
The absolute Sensitivity (correct diagnosis)/Specificity (negative diagnosis) looked really good in absolute terms in the highlights. What blew me away though was how good those results are relative to the current Gold standard CT scans, in absolute terms AND given the size and mobility of the device.
Entering the Validation Trial is another milestone which adds to the good EMV track record of defining and meeting milestones.
I do have an emerging concern about cash reserves though from the last Appendix 4C.
But without additional funding clearly lined up to replace the end of the existing formal funding, things do start to feel tighter ... not a huge cause of concern yet, but one which I am watching very closely.
Held IRL and in SM



Back to a “normal” Quarter after the spike in spend in R&D Expenses in 4QFY2024 - combination of R&D expenses and Staff Costs have reverted back to normal quarterly levels.
At the current cash burn rate, there is funding for 9.7 quarters or 2 years and a bit.
Keeping a close eye on the funding situation as the ASA funding is down to the last $0.8m, expected in 2QFY25, and the FY24 R&D Tax Incentive claim. Not an immediate cause of concern given that FDA approval is going to plan, but need to keep a closer watch on this from hereon.
Disc: Held IRL and in SM
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OPERATIONAL HIGHLIGHTS SUMMARY
‘EMView’ multi-centre pre-validation trial recruitment complete, enrolling over 300 participants. Stage 3 trial results anticipated in November.
277 suspected stroke patients provided valuable data for EMV’s “blood or not” and “ischemia or not” AI algorithms
EMVision continues validation trial preparations after positive FDA engagement.
The study design was confirmed as a multi-centre, prospective, consecutive, paired diagnosis, diagnostic performance study that is anticipated to enrol up to 300 suspected stroke patients at a minimum 5 stroke centres including a minimum 3 based in the United States.
Transformative ultra-light weight First Responder Proof-of-Concept brain scanner device unveiled. Preparations for road and air study well advanced.
Well-funded with cash reserves of $16.85 million. Activities over the next few months will be supported by further non-dilutive funding from the Company’s FY24 R&D Tax Incentive claim, currently being finalised, and the Australian Stroke Alliance grant program.
$1.72m cash outflow within normal quarterly cash outflow ranges
9.78 quarters of funding available
EMVision’s activities over the next few months will be supported by further non-dilutive funding from its FY24 R&D Tax Incentive claim, currently being finalised, and the ASA grant program. The final ASA milestone payments are due on achievement of telemedicine and road/air integration activities ($400,000) and commencement of pilot studies of the first responder device targeted for first quarter CY 2025 ($400,000).

EMV announced the following milestones today:

Continues the steady progress achieved thus far!
Discl: Held IRL and in SM
Interim Stage 2 Analysis Confirms Hyperacute and Acute Ischaemic Stroke Detection Capabilities
Stage 2 data confirms positive AI algorithm performance to help answer the “clot or not” question. This comes off the back of earlier positive news of the AI detecting "blood or not".

Key clinical question of “ischaemia or not” (“clot or not”) - current non-contrast computed tomography NCCT scans shows a limited sensitivity to detecting acute ischaemia
Other tests are required for patients with suspected ischemic stroke to confirm diagnosis - advanced imaging modalities such as CT Angiogram, CT Perfusion or MRI are often used to confirm the presence of ischaemia (‘clot or not’) and determine a patient’s eligibility for thrombectomy (clot retrieval).
Depending on the neuro-diagnosis, and treatment capabilities of the hospital to perform urgent intervention, a time critical decision is whether to transfer the patient to a comprehensive stroke centre, or not.
Continues the good progress and news on Stage 2 Trials.
Discl: Held IRL and SM
SUMMARY

Summary of Highlights - Most Already Announced Previously

Another positive announcement which the market seems to have liked. While the quantum of the funding release is only $0.6m, it is EMV's continuation of a stellar track record of meeting milestone obligations that is the key positive here.

Discl: Held IRL and in SM
Not much to write home about, a good thing! Things look like they are progressing nicely to plan on all fronts of the trials, algorithm analysis, Gen 2 prototype build and cash reserves. Good to see the showcasing going international and generating interest and leads.


First production unit unveiled and branded as "Emu".
Good Product Demo video of the point-of-care scanner to get a better sense of what it is and how it is actually used in hospitals. Very exciting to see the product come to life.
Chugging along nicely on the trials plan and FDA engagement is commencing. Quite a bit happening in CY2024!
Discl: Held IRL and on SM
My notes on the 30 min conversation with CEO Scott Kirkland this morning. As the communcation from EMV to the market on its journey have been clear and regular, nothing earth shatteringly new. It was a really good conversation to take a step backwards and look at how the various pieces tie together, the bigger picture of what is coming ahead and evolving management thinking on the revenue model - it does indeed look very positive and promising from all angles.
Discl: Held IRL and on SM
Progress of Trials
Path to Commercialisation
Funding
Radiation Dose of the Scanners
Secret Sauce of the Data
Competitive Landscape
Revenue Model
Positioning of Use of EMV Scanners
Closing Thoughts
Hi all, first ever straw since joining as Premium member last week. Overwhelmed as a newbie with the expertise here!
Was totally engaged in the EMV session this morning. It was my first intro to the company but I have a bit of affinity for new technology companies across industries, so was able to follow and see the opportunity. Post the meeting, and following a quick review of the straws here, I opened a small starting position in EMV, in my SMSF portfolio, as well as my Strawman portfolio to "get into it".
Here are my notes from the meeting and throughts thereof. Likely to be mistakes as I went off memory, but this was what drove my investment decision.
KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM 21 FEB 2023 ZOOM SESSION
INVESTMENT THESIS
RISKS
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