Hi all, first ever straw since joining as Premium member last week. Overwhelmed as a newbie with the expertise here!
Was totally engaged in the EMV session this morning. It was my first intro to the company but I have a bit of affinity for new technology companies across industries, so was able to follow and see the opportunity. Post the meeting, and following a quick review of the straws here, I opened a small starting position in EMV, in my SMSF portfolio, as well as my Strawman portfolio to "get into it".
Here are my notes from the meeting and throughts thereof. Likely to be mistakes as I went off memory, but this was what drove my investment decision.
KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM 21 FEB 2023 ZOOM SESSION
- Development and commercialisation of non-invasive, portable brain scanner device to provide rapid assessment of (1) stroke presence (2) type of stroke
- Provides opportunity for significantly earlier insights on the presence of stroke, enabling early intervention to improve patient outcomes, especially for situations away from medical facilities - stroke victims need to be treated within the “golden hour” to increase survivability
- Portability and speed to scan are key benefits - current technology of MRI/CT Scans involve radiation, needs dedicated facilities, requires patient to be moved, scans take hours to return vs EMV’s portable device that can be wheeled to patient, does not require patient movement, involves no radiation hence no need for dedicated facilities, will provide result in 5 mins or less - game changer for early diagnosis and hence early intervention
- Technology has a lot of IP protection around it
- Development and clinical trials are going to company’s plan - long way to go, but is marching at the expected pace - key milestone of 1st Gen multi-site clinical site has commenced
- $335b TAM - hospitals and mobile ambulances/planes
- Similar to NAN, has an ongoing consumable component for potential recurring revenue
- Has superior technology to competitors who have taken 2 general approaches (1) slimmed down MRI capability - still involves radiation (2) scans are taken of brain, but cannot tell type of stroke
- Less superior technologies have FDA approval, auguring well for EMV’s portable brain scanner, which has far better scan outcomes
- Management team is mostly ex-NAN - have solid experience in developing and commercialisation leading edge medical technology
- Strong management alignment - own ~20% of stock
- Backed by various non-dilutive grants and funding, taking pressure off shareholder funding - $15.5m at 31 Dec 22, $9.9m funding remaining
- Strong collaboration with Australian Stroke Alliance, RFDS etc - likely to end up being customers, so future customers are helping mature the technology
- Manufacturing facilities have been identified in SYD, capable of scale up - plan is to keep manufacturing team with the R&D team to enable rapid introduction of continuous improvements into the manufacturing cycle
- Cash reserves $9.6m in Dec 2022.
INVESTMENT THESIS
- Significant patient outcome benefit which far justifies the capital cost
- Significant, untapped TAM - first to market with portable scanning technology
- Technology IP moat
- Management Team alignment to company
- Significant management experience in developing and commercialisation of medical technology
- Solid non-dilutive funding model
- Reasonable entry level at $1.495 as (1) well off highs of ~$4.00 in late 2020 (2) well off 52 week high of $2.70 (3) striking distance of 52 week low of $1.23
RISKS
- Issues arise during clinical trials - delays approval or causes complete change in direction
- Mindset of the regulatory authorities is still unclear - need data points to be able to fine-tune plan for regulatory approval
- Cash flow issues if regulatory approval is delayed - delayed funding, shareholder capital raising risk
- Rival technology improves and poses a significantly more direct threat than today
- Loss of key R&D personnel, impacting journey to commercialisation
- Still 1-2 years out to earning revenue, at least