Pinned straw:
The recording for today's chat is now live on the Meetings page and you can interrogate the transcript here:
DBI Transcript October 2025.pdf
As mentioned, DBI strikes me as a low risk affair -- Provided, that is, they retain balance sheet and CAPEX discipline.
Here's a condensed summary of the risks from AI, which I asked to review the transcript:
Coal is undoubtedly a sunset industry, but it’s a very long sunset. The transition will take decades to play out, and metallurgical coal is likely to be the last segment to decline. Electric arc furnaces are part of that shift, but smelters typically don’t upgrade until their existing blast furnaces reach the end of their useful lives (often 30-40 years). In the meantime, countries like India are expected to prioritise the lower-cost, traditional (and dirtier) blast furnace route to support their rapid steelmaking expansion.
A 5.6% yield, (roughly 60% franked), with the dividend expected to grow between 3-7%pa sums to a very tidy return (*if* that's what they are able to deliver). Plus, if you like your divvies, they pay distributions quarterly.
Great interview @Strawman . Simple business to understand, incredibly tight moat from the Port as the other port options are not cost-viable for the miners, high revenue and cost certainty and low risk. A "term-deposit-like return-with-incremental-capital-upside-opportunity" situation.
It is so, so far from my "fast-growth-small-cap" wheelhouse and "put-almost-all-cash-to-work" mindset that it is testing my risk-on mindset to the core ...! I need to think of this like insurance or adding Gold to my portfolio.
Given where the price is today, perhaps the approach is to start a position with ~5.3%-ish yield today, then progressively top up when the price dips around announcements where there is no change to the fundamentals, to improve the overall yield. Doesn't make sense to price-chase this company, so if it hits the buy entry points, need to decisively execute.
Discl: Not Held IRL or in SM
Cool. I look forward to listening to the interview. Keen to understand the possible drivers of dividend/earnings growth.