Still nursing some PTSD but I'll tune in,

Some rambling thoughts below

most of the new reps seemed to be starting Sept / Oct so not sure if they could have had much of an impact this Q.

Trust of management still low for me, I'll be watching very closely I have mostly exited for reasons previously listed but interested to see if it's turning.

Still wary of a seasonal slowdown like Japan have and also the jam-mar GTN dip when deductibles reset.

This 4c should read a lot better now the inventory build has stopped.

I still can't reconcile how much they have spent on inventory vs units sold. If the COGS is like 50-100 AUD then why did they spend so much on inventory once they saw sales were lower than forecast / anticipated. I cant imagine it's got a monstrous lead time to get more made up.

Disc, held RL and SM

@Jimmy I've absolutely registered to attend that one! It will be fascinating to see what the trend is in all the key metrics: # new scripts, # prescribing physicians, Gross to Net trend is looking like.

I'll be looking for insights into the following questions:

• How much of the growth is simply due to field force/geography expansion
• Is there any evidence that physicians are upping their prescribing rate
• Are they on track to hit their GTN targets in the final quarter (which captures a bunch of drivers, e.g., fulfillment ahead of reimbursement approval)

I'm hoping to be able to make a positive decision (HOLD or SELL) based on signal in the data presented, rather than a "maybe, maybe not, I need to hold on and not be premature."

It is important to remember that dermatological products typically reach peak sales in year 3, so I'll be open and say that my bias will be to SELL, because a weak positive signal in itself is probably a message. If the product was delivering for patients, you'd expect the physicians who'd have started prescribing earlier in the year to be increasing their prescription rate - i.e., the volumes are being strongly supported by the early adopters and not just by the new docs who are writing their first scripts. Total scripts written in the second half year starts to show the interplay between sales and marketing execution AND how good the drug is. However, it is not always straightforward for an outsider to parse the difference.

Of course, there is every chance that that is exactly what other holders will be thinking. So it could be an interesting day from a price action perspective!

Disc: Held

@Jimmy Ok, I'll be there