Forum Topics SPZ SPZ AGM 2025

Pinned straw:

Added 4 weeks ago

There was nothing new in the presentation compared with the Q1 update from a couple of weeks ago, but I did learn some interesting points from the Q&A.

In Q1, they added the 71 sites lost in Australia (shipped hardware to NZ). Management sounded very confident about their target of adding 500 to 700 sites. I missed whether this goal applies only to FY27 (as shown in the slides) or if FY26 is included as well. Most of the growth is expected to come from the UK (around 300 sites), with New Zealand and Germany contributing roughly 100 each.

There was an interesting discussion about the trade off in the US between sites that require no capex, which tend to be shorter term and less sticky, and the sites that do require capex, which typically have stickier customers, use SPZ's technology and analytics, and come with longer duration contracts.

In Denmark the payment amounts and payment rates are much higher than in the UK & NZ. They want to use Denmark as a base to get access to this profitable Scandinavian conscientiousness. For now, operations in Denmark are still manual rather than using automatic number plate recognition.

In Germany, they remain confident about reaching profitability soon. In Switzerland, they expect to have sites operating by the end of the year.

Overall, management was upbeat, and the chair reflected on the strong share price performance over the past decade.

My sense is that it is a well run business, but it may need some time for fundamentals to catch up with the recent share price gains. I am particularly interested to see how the US segment performs in H1 FY26.

Silky84
Added 4 weeks ago

I too was confused regarding the discussion about FY27 sites being added whilst not commenting on the number for FY26- one would have thought they could much more accurately predict FY26- its a number i will be watching closely in each half yearly report

other than that a rather boring meeting to be honest. Its a simple business with lots of growth potential however i fully agree with mike that the big risk here is government regulation- it can lead to an almost immediate revenue rug pull in any jurisdiction (like QLD)

in saying that its a well run business with a solid management team and a long opportunity runway

new countries helps alleviate any single jurisdiction risk also and i think its smart to keep adding new countries

i can see this business churning out lovely earnings and a nice dividend in years to come!


held in RL (10%) i wont go much above 10% given the jurisdiction risks

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mikebrisy
Added 4 weeks ago

@twee good notes. Some comments from me in three areas:

New Sites Target

Yes, I also noted the FY27 target for new sites, and wondered if this was a typo (as there were a few others in the preso). But in the transcript, Paul and CFO between them say "Yeah, in the presentation we said its 500-700 sites for FY27. Just how does that break down ... UK 300 ...100 NZ ... 100 Germany ... US was still in our building phase but we are looking at somewhere between 30-50 ANPR locations by year-end this year as a financial year-end."

So I was confused when I heard the reply and also confused when I listened to the playback recording and read the transcript. It seems to mix this year and FY27.

It seems pretty clear to me that they did not want to communicate target information for the current year. Both Paul and his CFO said the presentation number was FY27. But in Paul's reply he is clearly referring to a US number for the current year.

Pretty sloppy communication, actually. But was it purposefully ambiguous? I don't know. And it probably doesn't matter too much. Given they are at 1,799 sites at 30-Sept, then if they do +400 in FY26, +600 in FY27 and +300 in 1H FY28, that gets well over 3,000 by Dec-28.


Denmark

I asked a question about Denmark:

Q: "Okay. Question from for Michael. Can you explain more fully how you're using technology to overcome the regulatory ruling in Demark? And how do you issue the physical PBN? Is there a way to grow this business profitably?"

A. from Paul. "Well, I'll answer your last question first, is there a way to grow this profitably? Absolutely, yes. And we want to be in Denmark because there is high ticket values there had breach values as well as high payment ratio. These are 2 things we look at. If we look at -- compare that with New Zealand, for example, so the actual breach value there is a bit lower at $85 versus NOK 120 -- sorry, NOK 720, which is about AUD 120. So I think when you get high ticket values and then you get a high payment ratio, clearly, it's profitable. Now the challenge we're facing at the moment is because we've been operating an ANPR operator exclusively, the majority of the locations are around Denmark. They're a bit more spread out. Versus if you put them all in a much tighter location around Copenhagen and not far out, it's easier to get around them with manual team that is currently being driven by our technologies on the site today. So that's what I'm talking about around technology. We also have a handheld solution that can -- which is very quick at issuing those breaches. So when the attendant is there, they can do a very quick sweep of the car park, understand where the predesign issue fast, which is a good health and safety or OH&S feature as well.

So I think number one, we absolutely want to be there. We definitely can grow that as a manual business and be very profitable. We also see it as a launch pad for the rest of Scandinavia. We can access -- we know we can access keeper details in Sweden, in Norway and also in Finland. So as a result, in time, we will be looking at expanding those but utilizing Copenhagen as the hub as the processing environment that will drive all of Scandinavia."

So, it is clear to me that they are refocussing their plan for Demank to concentrate of areas of high site density, so that the manual PBN-issuing doesn't destroy operaring margins. I think we speculated as much when the news broke at the last results. The new insight is that with a PBN at A$120 and high payment compliance, that offers a bit headroom for some labour cost and extra technology, provided the carpark density is high enough. It makes sense to me.


UK

Another public consultation on the Code of Practice is underway - having started in September. It is likely to lead to a government response in a few months, followed by a round for staekholders to reply (another 3-4 months). I'm going to do some research on what some of the consumer advocates are pushing for on this. After all, should there be an adverse regualtory change in the UK, then that would send some shockwaves. To be clear, there is no evidence that anything adverse is coming. But this is a perennial risk, and one I continue to manage by position sizing.


Strong shareholder support on all 4 resolutions.

Disc: Held


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Rocket6
Added 4 weeks ago

@twee @mikebrisy thanks both. I missed the Q&A so this is very useful.

The Denmark clarity in particular provides a lot of insight into their decision making.

I don't think they intend to be ambiguous, but sometimes they give that impression. They are pretty transparent in Q&As and the like. I have a lot of respect for the way Paul and co go about their business. But there is a lot of moving parts with this business (re: expansion -- and this will only grow) and they sometimes drop the ball relating to how they articulate one thing or another. This is probably getting a touch more common as the business grows. I am comfortable with that, they are human, as long as they remain transparent with shareholders and don't intentionally hide/pull critical information that is part of their regular reporting.

The UK Code of Practice is well worth keeping a close eye on.

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